As the 2023 FCS season inches closer, HERO Sports will look at five offseason questions for the 2022 quarterfinalists.
Next up is Montana State.
Montana State finished 12-2 last year, losing 39-18 to South Dakota State in the semifinals. Here are five questions the Bobcats face entering 2023.
RELATED: Montana State Football 2023 Schedule
Can MSU match top-tier teams in the trenches?
Before the national title game vs. North Dakota State two seasons ago, it was thought that the MSU offensive and defensive lines filled with All-Conference and All-American talent could go toe-to-toe with the Bison. But NDSU won 38-10, outrushing MSU 380-156
Before last year’s semifinal game vs. South Dakota State, it was thought that the MSU o-line leading the No. 1-ranked FCS rushing offense could go toe-to-toe with SDSU’s No. 1-ranked FCS rushing defense. But the Jackrabbits won 39-18, outrushing MSU 281-52.
Granted, the Bobcats lost huge parts of their offense early in those games due to injuries to QBs Tommy Mellott vs. NDSU and Sean Chambers vs. SDSU. But still, the play in the trenches was not on the same level.
The first two seasons under head coach Brent Vigen have been marvelous. MSU made the title game in Year 1. Last season was arguably just as impressive considering the historic senior class that left, not losing an FCS game until the semis and technically losing in the same style against SDSU as NDSU did in Frisco. MSU had a strong argument to be the No. 3 seed in the playoffs, which would have meant a home game vs. UIW in the semis instead of going to SDSU. Maybe that would have resulted in another championship game appearance.
Regardless, getting better in the trenches is key No. 1 for MSU to win a national title in 2023, which is the ultimate goal and a reasonable goal.
It’s also reasonable to expect the Bobcats to get stronger on the offensive and defensive lines in 2023. Seven of MSU’s nine starters on the OL and DL were sophomores or freshmen last year with the other two being juniors. Rush Reimer, JT Reed, and Justus Perkins were sophomore All-Americans on the OL, and DT Sebastian Valdez was a Sophomore AA as well.
The 2021 MSU OL and DL were great, the 2022 OL was great, and the 2022 DL was good. But a national title requires you to go from great to elite on the line of scrimmage.
Can they hit elite status in 2023?
How are the quarterbacks utilized?
MSU has two Top 25 FCS QBs in Tommy Mellott and Sean Chambers.
Mellott (6-0, 209 pounds) is 12-1 vs. FCS opponents as a full-game starter. He was named to the All-Big Sky Second Team and HERO Sports Sophomore All-American Team last year, throwing for 1,698 yards, 10 TDs, and four interceptions while rushing for 1,061 yards and 13 TDs.
Chambers (6-3, 228 pounds) was a 2022 transfer from Wyoming. He earned Third Team AP All-American honors as an all-purpose player, plus Big Sky Newcomer of the Year and Second Team All-Conference accolades. Chambers ran for 845 yards and 19 TDs (No. 2 in the FCS) while throwing for 623 yards, eight TDs, and four interceptions.
Both missed a couple of games due to injury at different times. But late in the season, not only were the Bobcats still finding success with a 2-QB system, they found great success in having them on the field simultaneously, even running read option between the two.
Offensive coordinator Taylor Housewright has found creative ways to use his standout quarterbacks. Both, however, are run-first QBs. Which is fine and will win MSU a lot of games. But on a national title scale, finding a way to advance the passing game is key. Mellott is the guy and the starter. But Chambers has looked like the more polished passer.
How does MSU utilize both of its top rushers that happen to be QBs while keeping Mellott and his great record/leadership on the field while trying to improve the passing game with Chambers’ arm while trying to keep the offense in a rhythm? It’s a good problem to have, but a challenging one too.
MSU can do what it did last year offensively and win double-digit games. It may even get them to the national title game. But the Bobcats are now at a point in Brent Vigen’s third season at the helm where we are judging MSU’s play based on whether or not it can win a national championship. And to beat the heavy favorite Jackrabbits, more balance on offense is needed.
Can a dominant WR emerge?
A run-heavy offense is at its best when it has a wide receiver who can dominate in 1-on-1 coverage, making it tougher for safeties to creep toward the box. MSU had that in 2021 with 6-foot-3 Lance McCutcheon, who caught 61 passes for 1,121 yards and eight TDs. His presence was huge and a difference-maker in the semifinal win vs. South Dakota State.
While MSU was as explosive as it’d been in years last season, ranking No. 3 in FCS scoring offense (42.9 PPG), it lacked that pass-catcher who could make a defense hurt for over-selling on the run. The top two WRs were both under 6-foot as Willie Patterson and Clevan Thomas Jr. combined for 62 catches for 900 yards and nine TDs. Thomas returns in 2023.
Having a go-to guy in 2023 takes MSU’s offense to another level, especially deep in the playoffs as the run defenses get stronger. The Bobcats have some talent at WR who have shown explosive moments in Thomas, Taco Dowler, and Marqui Johnson. All are under 6-foot. MSU could use a big-body threat on the outside, especially for Mellott, who throws a beautiful fade. The team brought in three FBS transfers who can possibly add another dimension: 6-foot-3 Lonyatta Alexander Jr. from Washington, 6-foot-1 Ty McCullouch from Colorado State, and 5-foot-8 Garrett Walchli from Utah State.
Will the defense improve?
The defense took a step back in 2022 after losing key seniors. MSU allowed 27.69 PPG, 141.1 rushing YPG, and 226.54 passing YPG. The previous year saw 15.07 PPG, 126.3 rushing YPG, and 183.87 passing YPG.
Can the unit get better in 2023? That will be crucial in MSU’s quest for a national title. The Bobcats lose two of its top defensive players in linebacker Callahan O’Reilly and nickel Ty Okada. Look for safety Rylan Ortt, linebacker Danny Uluilakepa, defensive tackle Sebastian Valdez, and defensive end Brody Grebe (all sophomores in 2022) to elevate their play this fall.
Does the brutal road schedule result in multiple losses?
MSU went 10-1 overall and 10-0 vs. the FCS last regular season to earn the No. 4 playoff seed. Its toughest FCS opponents came at home vs. UC Davis, Weber State, and Montana.
The Bobcats now navigate a brutal road schedule this year to set themselves up for a high playoff seed. They go to South Dakota State, Weber State, Sacramento State, Idaho, and Montana. Those teams will all likely be preseason ranked in the Top 15.
The Bobcats will be favored in most of those games, but you never know what can happen on the road, especially against stiff competition. Last season, MSU had three-point road wins at non-playoff teams Eastern Washington and Northern Arizona. If the Bobcats finish 10-1 against this year’s schedule, they will have a legit argument for a Top 2 seed and home-field advantage, where they haven’t lost a game at Bobcat Stadium since Oct. 12, 2019 (Sac State). If they lose multiple games and finish 9-2, they would likely have to go on the road again in the semifinals.
