A Top 4 matchup highlights Week 12 of the 2024 FCS season as No. 4 UC Davis hosts No. 2 Montana State.
UC Davis is 9-1 overall and 9-0 vs. the FCS with two ranked wins over Idaho and Montana. Its current strength of schedule is ranked 25th by Massey.
Montana State is 10-0 with one ranked win over Idaho and an FBS win over New Mexico. MSU’s current SOS is 38th.
What does this weekend’s result mean for both teams for playoff positioning? Let’s start with if the home team wins.
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If UC Davis Wins…
For UC Davis
The Aggies remain undefeated vs. the FCS and notch their third ranked win, each over a Top 10 team.
They then travel to rival Sac State for the Causeway Classic. How the 3-7 Hornets are playing defensively, it would be a large upset for UC Davis to lose its regular-season finale. So with two more wins in this scenario, the Aggies would be 11-1 overall and 11-0 vs. the FCS with three ranked wins.
That should be a Top 2 seed.
If No. 1 NDSU suffers a loss in the final two weeks, the Aggies should bump to the No. 1 seed. If NDSU wins out, the Bison would finish 11-1 overall and 11-0 vs. the FCS with five ranked wins. NDSU’s projected year-end strength of schedule is 3rd in the FCS while UC Davis’ is 15th. The Bison’s resume has a higher probability of getting the No. 1 seed while UC Davis gets the 2 seed due to ranked wins and SOS.
If UC Davis were to beat MSU and then lose to Sac State to finish 10-2 overall and 10-1 vs. the FCS, the Aggies would still be a Top 8 seed with a first-round bye. But they would be in a jumble of multiple teams with one loss vs. FCS opponents.
For Montana State
MSU likely has a Top 8 seed already secured no matter how these final two games go.
If the Bobcats lose to UC Davis and then beat Montana, which they will be favored to do so at home, they would be 11-1 with two ranked wins and an FBS win. That could still be a Top 4 behind NDSU, UC Davis, and SDSU if the Bison and Jackrabbits win out. But if USD beats NDSU next week, that could create a mix of one loss vs. the FCS teams (MSU, NDSU, SDSU, USD, and Mercer) fighting for Top 4 seeds behind No. 1 seed UC Davis.
If the Cats lost to UC Davis and Montana, they are still likely a Top 8 seed at 10-2 with a ranked win over Idaho (another potential Top 8 seed at 9-3) and an FBS win. But MSU would probably be in the 6-8 seed range.
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If Montana State Wins…
For Montana State
MSU improves to 11-0 with its second ranked win, both over Top 10 teams, plus its FBS win.
The Bobcats then host rival Montana in the Brawl of the Wild, who is currently ranked No. 10. The home team has been an overwhelming favorite in this series since 2019. If the Cats win these final two games, they will be 12-0 with three ranked wins and an FBS win.
That should be a Top 2 seed.
If No. 1 NDSU suffers a loss in the final two weeks, MSU should bump to the No. 1 seed. If NDSU wins out, the Bison would finish 11-1 overall and 11-0 vs. the FCS with five ranked wins. NDSU’s projected year-end strength of schedule is 3rd in the FCS while MSU’s is 22nd. The Bison’s resume has a higher probability of getting the No. 1 seed while Montana State gets the 2 seed due to ranked wins, SOS, and reflecting the committee’s Top 10 in late October. But … MSU would have a stronger argument to get the No. 1 seed over the Bison at 12-0 than UC Davis would in the scenario above at 11-1, especially if the Cats have dominating wins over its final two Top 10 opponents.
If MSU were to beat UC Davis and then lose to Montana, it could still be a Top 4 seed at 11-1, perhaps even a Top 3 seed behind NDSU and SDSU if the Bison and Jacks win out. But if USD were to beat NDSU next week, it would create a mess of teams with one loss vs. FCS opponents — Montana State, NDSU, SDSU, USD, UC Davis, and Mercer — and figuring out the order of those Top 6 seeds would be a massive ball of yarn for the committee to straighten out.
For UC Davis
The Aggies are still sitting fine for perhaps a Top 5 seed. They would have to beat Sac State, which is a rivalry game, but the Hornets are struggling this year.
Lose Saturday and then beat Sac State, and UC Davis is 10-2 overall and 10-1 vs. the FCS with two ranked wins. If MSU, NDSU, and SDSU win out, those are probably the Top 3 seeds in whatever order. UC Davis would be in the mix for the No. 4 seed with potentially Mercer, who could finish 10-2 overall and 10-1 vs. the FCS with four then-ranked wins and two currently-ranked wins. UC Davis’ projected year-end SOS is ranked 15th compared to Mercer’s 60th, which likely gives the Aggies the edge for the No. 4 seed in this scenario.
Or as mentioned above, if Montana beats Montana State and USD beats NDSU, that creates a mess of several teams with one loss vs. FCS opponents — Montana State, NDSU, SDSU, USD, UC Davis, and Mercer.
If UC Davis loses to MSU and Sac State to finish 9-3 overall and 9-2 vs. the FCS with two ranked wins, that could still get the Aggies a Top 8 seed. Especially since Idaho has a good shot to get a first-round bye if it wins out to finish 9-3 with a couple of ranked wins and an FBS victory. And UC Davis has a head-to-head advantage over Idaho.
