A Top 7 matchup highlights Week 11 of the 2024 FCS season. No. 4 UC Davis visits No. 7 Montana, kicking off at 9:15 p.m. CT on ESPN2.
Montana is 7-2 overall/vs. the FCS with two currently-ranked wins over Missouri State and Western Carolina. The two FCS losses are to No. 21 UND and Weber State. Montana’s current strength of schedule is ranked 33rd by Massey.
UC Davis is 8-1 overall and 8-0 vs. the FCS with one currently-ranked win over Idaho. Its current SOS is ranked 36th by Massey.
What does this weekend’s result mean for both teams for playoff positioning? Let’s start with if the home team wins.
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If Montana Wins…
For Montana
Similar to last year, the Grizzlies continue to build momentum into the playoffs. A win over UC Davis vaults them up in the rankings and the playoff seed picture.
We’ll pencil in a win next week over Portland State. This would have Montana at 9-2 with three ranked wins heading into the Brawl of the Wild. Montana State’s ranking, which is currently No. 2, will depend on how next week’s game at UC Davis goes.
Let’s say Montana goes 3-0 in the final three games. That’s a 10-2 record with four ranked wins, including two victories over Top 5 teams. The two losses against UND and Weber State haven’t aged well, as there is a chance both miss the playoffs (Weber for sure). But a hot finish could make up for those losses.
At 10-2, Montana would have an argument for a Top 4 playoff seed. NDSU and SDSU are likely the No. 1 and 2 seeds if they win out and UC Davis/Montana State suffer losses to Montana. South Dakota would enter that Top 4 mix if it beat NDSU in the regular-season finale (USD, NDSU, and SDSU would have one FCS loss, all to each other). The MSU-UC Davis winner would be in the Top 4 mix with one FCS loss but would be behind Montana in this scenario. And Mercer will factor in if it finishes 10-1 vs. the FCS with 3-4 ranked wins. SEMO could finish 11-0 vs. the FCS but might lack ranked wins to push any of these teams out of the Top 4.
To unravel all of that, let’s make it easy and say that if Montana, NDSU, SDSU, and Mercer win out, those four and the UC Davis/MSU winner are probably your Top 5 seeds in some order.
Now, let’s say Montana beats UC Davis and Portland State before losing to Montana State.
At 9-3 with three ranked wins, Montana still has a good shot at a first-round bye and a Top 8 seed. Where the Griz land in that Top 8 depends on many different results, but they would likely get bumped outside of the Top 4 seeds behind teams like NDSU, MSU, SDSU, and Mercer.
For UC Davis
Davis suffers its first FCS loss and faces a pivotal game next week vs. No. 2 Montana State.
A loss this weekend and the Aggies drop to 8-2 overall and 8-1 vs. the FCS with one ranked win.
If they lose again next week and then beat Sac State, who is down this year but it’s still a rivalry game, the Aggies would finish 9-3 overall and 9-2 vs. the FCS with one ranked win. That still has a decent shot at a first-round bye and a Top 8 seed, especially because Idaho would also have an argument for a Top 8 seed if the Vandals win out and finish 9-3 with an FBS win and a few then-ranked wins. UC Davis would get the nod before Idaho if it came down to the final first-round bye.
Let’s say UC Davis wins its final two games after losing to Montana. The Aggies would be 10-2 overall and 10-1 vs. the FCS with two ranked wins, including beating No. 2 Montana State. They would be somewhere in the mix for a Top 5 seed along with a combination of NDSU, SDSU, Mercer, potentially USD if the Yotes beat NDSU, SEMO, and one or both of the Montana schools depending on how the Brawl of the Wild goes.
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If UC Davis Wins…
For UC Davis
If UC Davis wins its final three games, the Aggies should be a Top 2 seed with home-field playoff advantage. They would finish 11-1 overall and 11-0 vs. the FCS with three ranked wins, all against Top 10 teams. That holds a very strong argument to be a Top 2 seed, especially when you factor in a solid projected year-end Massey strength of schedule that ranks 15th.
If UC Davis beats Montana, loses to No. 2 Montana State, and then beats Sac State, the Aggies are 10-2 overall and 10-1 vs. the FCS with two ranked wins. That could still result in a Top 5 seed behind NDSU, Montana State, and SDSU if those three win out. Mercer would be in that discussion for the No. 4 seed at 10-1 vs. the FCS with 3-4 ranked wins. USD could enter that discussion if it beat NDSU in the regular-season finale. SEMO will be considered as well for a Top 5 seed if it finishes 11-0 vs. the FCS, but a lack of ranked wins could place a 10-1 vs. the FCS UC Davis team ahead of SEMO.
For Montana
Montana suffers its third FCS loss and drops to 7-3.
As we did above, we’ll pencil in a win next week over Portland State. This scenario puts the Griz at 8-3 with two ranked wins heading into Bozeman.
If Montana beats MSU, the Griz would finish 9-3 with three ranked wins. How high in the seeds the Griz could climb from that MSU win comes down to a lot of factors. Does UC Davis or MSU win next week? Does SDSU win out? Does NDSU win out, or does USD beat the Bison? Does Mercer avoid any stumbles? How does the committee value an undefeated vs. the FCS SEMO team that lacks ranked wins? But at 9-3 and a victory over MSU for ranked win No. 3, the Griz are certainly going to get a first-round bye.
If Montana loses to UC Davis, beats PSU, and loses to MSU, the Griz are 8-4 with a couple of ranked wins. They would need a lot of other results to go their way to get a first-round bye, and most likely are pushed to the 9-16 seed range and hosting a first-round playoff game.
