No. 3 Montana State hosts No. 9 UC Davis this weekend in a ranked FCS matchup. The playoff implications are high on Saturday.
Check out our preview and prediction below.
Montana State vs. UC Davis On TV
The matchup between Montana State vs. UC Davis airs on ESPN2.
Kickoff is at 9:30 p.m. CT on Saturday, Nov. 15. It takes place at Bobcat Stadium in Bozeman, Montana.
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Montana State vs. UC Davis Preview
UC Davis and Montana State have an important two-week stretch before Selection Sunday.
Davis is 7-2 overall with a 7-1 record vs. the FCS. MSU is 8-2 overall and 8-1 vs. the FCS. Both own one currently-ranked win over Northern Arizona — MSU beat NAU 34-10, and Davis won 45-24.
Rivalry games loom next week. MSU travels to No. 2 Montana, while UC Davis hosts Sac State, a team that is still in the playoff hunt at 6-4 overall (6-3 vs. the FCS).
Sitting at seven wins right now, Davis isn’t a lock just yet for the playoffs. Go 0-2 in these final weeks, and the Aggies could be left out. There will be several seven and eight-win teams on the bubble. If UC Davis goes 1-1, it is in the bracket with eight wins. Go 2-0, and the Aggies have a strong case for a Top 8 seed at 9-2 overall and 9-1 vs. the FCS. A sidenote: The Week 0 no-contest vs. Mercer impacts both teams in their playoff positioning, as Mercer is in the conversation for a first-round bye.
Montana State is playing like one of, if not the most complete teams in the FCS right now.
The Bobcats have annihilated their opponents lately. But these last two weeks are their toughest tests since their first two games. How well do they play in adverse moments? We’ll find out soon.
If MSU goes 2-0, it earns the No. 2 seed and gets crucial home-field advantage. If the Cats go 1-1, they’ll likely be somewhere in the Top 8 seeds, perhaps remaining in the Top 4 depending on what happens elsewhere. If they go 0-2, they are still likely in the bracket at 8-4, but may not earn a Top 16 seed.
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It’ll be a late-night kickoff in the dark, in the cold, and on ESPN2. Opponents have run into a hornet’s nest in these games in Bozeman. I’m excited to watch how redshirt freshman quarterback Caden Pinnick handles the environment, though. He’s been electric at times with 1,987 passing yards (20 touchdowns) and 237 rushing yards (3 touchdowns). Pinnick has also made some freshman mistakes with six interceptions, but he’s certainly in the running for the Jerry Rice Award, given to the best FCS freshman.
A top-tier FCS defense will challenge Pinnick. MSU is allowing just 16.1 points per game and 102.9 rushing yards per game. The depth, speed, and tackling are impressive.
Offensively, the Cats are as well-balanced as they’ve been in several years. Justin Lamson has passed for 2,026 yards, 18 TDs, and two interceptions while adding 412 rushing yards and eight TDs. Julius Davis has rushed for 709 yards and six scores. Adam Jones has 593 yards and nine touchdowns on the ground.
UC Davis has lost 15 players to season-ending injuries this year, many of them on the defensive side. That will show as this game progresses.
Prediction: Montana State 38-21
