A highly anticipated FCS regular-season showdown takes place Saturday when No. 1 North Dakota State visits No. 2 South Dakota State.
NDSU is 7-0 with three then-ranked wins (No. 17/18 South Dakota, No. 6/6 Illinois State, No. 8/9 SIU) and three currently-ranked wins (No. 21/NR South Dakota, No. 18/20 Illinois State, No. 16/18 SIU). The Bison’s current strength of schedule is ranked 54th by Massey.
SDSU is 7-0 with three then-ranked wins (No. 15/14 Sac State, No. 3/3 Montana State, No. 24/18 YSU) and two currently-ranked wins (No. 5/5 Montana State, No. 22/21 YSU). Its current Massey strength of schedule is 38th in the FCS.
New Customer Offers at BetMGM
Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l Terms
What does this weekend’s result mean for both teams in playoff positioning? Let’s start with if the home team wins.
If SDSU Wins…
For SDSU
The Jackrabbits move to No. 1 in the Top 25 polls and are in the driver’s seat for a Top 2 playoff seed with coveted home-field advantage.
SDSU’s remaining schedule looks like:
vs. Indiana State
at No. 21/NR South Dakota
vs. No. 18/20 Illinois State
at No. 8/10 North Dakota
Three currently-ranked opponents remain, including two on the road. However, Illinois State travels to USD this weekend, and the loser could drop out of the polls.
If SDSU wins out, that would be around 6-7 ranked wins, including beating top teams like Montana State and NDSU. That’s an obvious No. 1 seed.
If the Jackrabbits beat NDSU and then lose a game, that’s where things get interesting. They would be 11-1 with around 5-6 ranked wins and a projected year-end strength of schedule ranked No. 10 in the FCS. There is still a strong case for a Top 2 seed, but others would be in the mix as well.
Tarleton State could finish 12-0 with around 2-3 ranked wins, an FBS win over a solid Army team, and a projected year-end SOS ranked No. 29. Montana could finish 12-0, which would mean beating Montana State, owning 2-3 ranked wins, and a projected year-end SOS ranked No. 28. The Grizzlies did play a non-D1 opponent, so they’d have 11 D1 wins in this scenario, the same amount as SDSU. But if SDSU’s lone loss in this scenario is to UND, Montana has a head-to-head win over the Fighting Hawks, which could slide a 12-0 Griz team ahead of an 11-1 Jacks team. Another team that could be in the mix is UND, who is 5-2 overall, 5-1 vs. the FCS with two ranked wins, and gets NDSU and SDSU at home. If UC Davis wins out and springs an upset at Montana State to finish 10-0 vs. the FCS, the Aggies would enter the conversation as well.
If SDSU beats NDSU and then drops a contest to finish 11-1, who the loss is against (is it to UND, and does UND win out?) will play a factor in the positioning of the Top 4 seeds, along with if Tarleton State goes unbeaten and who wins between UC Davis-Montana State and Montana State-Montana. The Jacks would want MSU to win out. The Bobcats would be in the discussion for a Top 2 seed if they finish 10-2 overall and 10-1 vs. the FCS with around three ranked wins and the No. 3 projected year-end SOS. But a one-loss SDSU team would likely get the nod ahead of MSU due to its head-to-head win.
Check out the latest episode of the FCS Football Talk podcast.
You can also find the podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, iHeart, and Spreaker.
SUBSCRIBE: FCS Football Talk
For NDSU
Depending on the margin of victory for SDSU, the Bison could drop to No. 2 with a close loss or a little further if it’s a two-score final or more.
NDSU’s remaining schedule looks like:
vs. No. 22/21 Youngstown State
at No. 8/10 North Dakota
vs. Northern Iowa
vs. St. Thomas
The Bison will be favored to win its three remaining home games, including ranked YSU. The trip to UND will be another tough environment to get a win.
If NDSU wins out after a loss at SDSU, it’d be 11-1 with around 4-5 ranked wins and a projected year-end SOS ranked No. 22 in the FCS. The Bison would have an argument for the No. 2 seed, especially if the loss at SDSU is a close one. But Tarleton State and Montana/Montana State could be in the Top 2 mix as well. Tarleton could finish 12-0 with around 2-3 ranked wins, an FBS win over a solid Army team, and a projected year-end SOS ranked No. 29. Montana could also finish 12-0, owning 2-3 ranked wins with a projected year-end SOS ranked No. 28. The Grizzlies did play a non-D1 opponent, so they’d have 11 D1 wins in this scenario, the same amount as NDSU. If Montana State wins out and beats Montana, MSU would finish 10-2 overall and 10-1 vs. the FCS (only loss to SDSU in 2OT) with around three ranked wins and the No. 3 projected year-end SOS. If UC Davis wins out and springs an upset at Montana State to finish 10-0 vs. the FCS, the Aggies would enter the conversation as well.
An 11-1 NDSU team vs. a 12-0 Tarleton State team vs. a 12-0 Montana team or a 10-1 vs. FCS Montana State team would be quite the ball of yarn for the playoff committee to sort out for the No. 2 seed if SDSU wins out to go 12-0. UND could also hand SDSU a loss, where an 11-1 SDSU team wouldn’t have a guarantee of a Top 2 seed.
If the Bison trip up and lose a second game to finish 10-2, there would be much more to sort out on whether NDSU would receive a Top 8 seed and first-round bye.
Related Articles
- 2025 FCS Attendance Leaders
- Week 9 Notable Games And How To Watch
- Resumes For The Top 10 Ranked FCS Teams
If NDSU Wins…
For NDSU
NDSU stays atop the FCS polls and puts itself in a strong position to secure a Top 2 playoff seed and home-field advantage.
NDSU’s remaining schedule looks like:
vs. No. 22/21 Youngstown State
at No. 8/10 North Dakota
vs. Northern Iowa
vs. St. Thomas
If the Bison win out, they are 12-0 with around 5-6 ranked wins. That’s your No. 1 playoff seed right there.
If NDSU trips up at some point after beating SDSU, the most likely spot would be at UND. An 11-1 NDSU team would still have a strong argument for a Top 2 seed, but it would face stiff competition for those Top 2 spots. We laid out the resumes above if Tarleton State goes 12-0, Montana goes 12-0, Montana State goes 10-2 overall and 10-1 vs. the FCS, or UC Davis goes 10-1 overall and 10-0 vs. the FCS. In this scenario of UND beating NDSU, the Fighting Hawks could also be in the mix for a Top 2 seed if they win out and finish 10-2 overall and 10-1 vs. the FCS (loss to Montana), which would mean beating SDSU.
While defeating the Jacks this weekend could give NDSU some wiggle room, there are scenarios where the Bison drop one game after beating SDSU and don’t get a Top 2 seed, especially if UND and Montana win out.
For SDSU
Depending on the margin of victory for NDSU, the Jacks could remain No. 2 on many ballots if it’s a close game. Based on national poll trends, though, SDSU would more likely drop a spot behind Tarleton State, and possibly two spots behind Tarleton and Montana if the Griz win at Sac State.
SDSU’s remaining schedule looks like:
vs. Indiana State
at No. 21/NR South Dakota
vs. No. 18/20 Illinois State
at No. 8/10 North Dakota
If SDSU loses to NDSU and then wins out, it would have a strong argument for the No. 2 seed, especially if it’s a close loss. But it’ll be highly competitive for that 2 spot. The Jacks would be 11-1 with around 5-6 ranked wins and a projected year-end strength of schedule ranked No. 10 in the FCS. That resume could stack up well to a 12-0 Tarleton State team with 2-3 ranked wins and an FBS win or a 12-0 Montana team with 11 D1 wins and 2-3 ranked wins. SDSU would have more ranked wins and a tougher strength of schedule to potentially be seeded above those two teams. Montana State beating Montana in the regular-season finale would also help SDSU due to the Jacks owning a head-to-head win over the Cats. Then it’d be a matter of whether the playoff committee likes Tarleton’s 12-0 resume vs. SDSU’s 11-1 resume.
If SDSU loses to NDSU and then drops another game to finish 10-2, there would be a lot more to sort out on where and if the Jacks get a Top 8 seed and a first-round bye.
