No. 2 South Dakota State hosts No. 1 North Dakota State this weekend in a colossal FCS matchup.
The Dakota Marker, MVFC title race implications, and high playoff seeds are on the line. Check out our preview and prediction below.
SDSU vs. NDSU On TV
The matchup between SDSU and NDSU will air on ESPNU.
Kickoff is at 7 p.m. CT on Saturday, Oct. 25. It takes place at Dana J. Dykhouse Stadium in Brookings, SD.
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SDSU vs. NDSU Preview
For the second straight year, the Dakota Marker features a showdown between the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the subdivision.
Last season, SDSU put its 5-game winning streak over the Bison on the line, and NDSU came out victorious, winning 13-9. The Bison then added a second consecutive win in the semifinals (28-21). This year, the Jackrabbits put their 33-game home winning streak on the line. It’s the longest active home winning streak in the FCS and the fourth-longest in subdivision history.
The top storyline is the health of SDSU quarterback Chase Mason, who’s had a standout debut season as the starter with 1,419 passing yards, 11 touchdowns, one interception, and four rushing scores. He suffered what is believed to be an ankle injury last week at Murray State. He did finish the drive after the injury occurred with a touchdown run before jogging off the field slightly hobbled. Mason didn’t return to the game.
He’s a difference-maker in this one.
Mason has elite arm talent and good depth of pass-catchers to work with. While he hasn’t run it much this season after being known as a running quarterback in previous years, his mobility is crucial. If Mason doesn’t play, it heavily tips the scales toward NDSU, who would already be favored against a fully healthy Mason-led team. If he plays and is limited, that’s also a big deal. SDSU’s backup is Luke Marble, a transfer from Northern Illinois. He showed a nice skillset last week at Murray State after settling in, but a redshirt freshman signal-caller getting thrust into the Dakota Marker game isn’t ideal.
For the Jackrabbits to win this game, they will need to do it through the air. SDSU’s ground game has been too up-and-down this year to provide confidence that it’ll get going against a Bison defense allowing 10.0 points per game and 95.7 rushing yards per game. NDSU’s defensive line depth will be tested, though, as standout DT and captain Jaxon Duttenhefer is likely to miss Saturday after suffering a neck injury last week. Plus, rotational DT Zach Vanderpool’s availability is 50/50 after he missed last week’s game due to a back injury.
NDSU being shorthanded on the interior of the d-line could be a factor in the fourth quarter.
If Mason can go and the offensive line — which has the No. 9 PFF pass-blocking grade in the FCS — can give him time, SDSU may be able to find success spreading NDSU’s defense out and throwing it around, which then lightens the box for running back Julius Loughridge. Illinois State found some success throwing it on NDSU’s secondary a few weeks ago. The Jacks have four receivers who have been reliable – Alex Bullock, Lofton O’Groske (who is working his way back from injury), Jack Smith, and Grahm Goering.
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On the other side of the ball, NDSU’s offensive line, which features three new starters, has been strong. But some opposing defenses have generated a decent pass-rush at times. Getting to Cole Payton or pushing him off his spot is one thing, though; getting him down has proven difficult. Payton has had an electrifying season, throwing for 1,565 yards, 11 touchdowns, and one interception while rushing for 475 yards and six TDs.
The Jacks have one of the top defensive lines in the FCS, and the linebacker trio of Cullen McShane, Joe Ollman, and Chase Van Tol is as good as it gets. They’ll have to play at a high level to slow down an NDSU offense that has been humming, scoring 43.6 points per game. The Bison are just as dangerous throwing the ball as running it, and top receivers Bryce Lance and RaJa Nelson have had huge moments in this rivalry series.
NDSU has looked like the most complete team this season. It has had slower starts and choppy first halves in the last three games, but the final results were still mostly lopsided wins. SDSU has spun its tires offensively at different points this year. But similar to NDSU, the Jacks have still won games by scores of 31-3 and 35-14 despite subpar performances.
I have some trust in SDSU’s defense. I have some trust in NDSU’s offense. And I have some trust in NDSU’s defense. The two areas of concern in this game are SDSU’s inconsistent offense and its unreliable kicking game. That, and NDSU’s ability to win in the margins and make the winning plays in crucial moments, has me leaning toward an NDSU victory, which will be sealed late in the fourth quarter by going up two scores.
Prediction: NDSU 27-17
