Most Likely FCS Over FBS Wins In 2026

FCS teams take on the FBS more than 125 times in the 2026 season.

There are a handful of favorable matchups for some FCS over FBS victories. Last year saw four wins, down from six in 2024.

Here are nine I think are most likely to happen in 2026.

9. Southeastern at ULM

Louisiana-Monroe ranks No. 132 out of 138 FBS teams in Bill Connelly’s SP+ preseason rankings. And the Warhawks will face a Southeastern Louisiana University team eyeing another playoff appearance after a 9-4 season. Kyle Lowe is back at quarterback for the Lions after splitting reps, along with All-Conference running back Deantre Jackson. Southeastern added a splash transfer to anchor the defense, landing two-time All-Southland linebacker Jake Dalmado from rival Nicholls.

8. South Dakota State at Northwestern

SDSU has national championship expectations entering 2026 and looks forward to putting a challenging 2025 behind them, both on the field and off the field. Most of SDSU’s production is back from last year, including an experienced offensive line, QB Chase Mason, a strong group of WRs led by Lofton O’Groske, and a deep linebacker core led by Cullen McShane, Chase Van Tol, and Joe Ollman. The Jackrabbits look to replicate what MVFC members Southern Illinois did in 2022 and what Illinois State did in 2016: beat Northwestern. The Wildcats finished a solid 7-6 last year, but SDSU has the returning experience to make it a game and have a shot in the fourth quarter. Individually, the matchup will be important for Mason and offensive tackle Quinten Christensen, two prospects with NFL Draft buzz.

7. Montana at Oregon State

After a 13-2 season and a trip to the semifinals, expectations are high for Montana, even with a head coaching change from Bobby Hauck to Bobby Kennedy. The offensive firepower will be elite with the returns of All-American QB Keali’i Ah Yat, All-American RB Eli Gillman, and Freshman All-American WR Brooks Davis. Montana does have several holes to fill on the offensive and defensive lines, which makes an FBS win even more challenging. But the Griz are going to an Oregon State team that has been hit with hard times, including a 2-10 campaign last fall. The Beavers enter 2026 at No. 91 in Bill Connelly’s SP+ preseason FBS rankings.

Check out the FCS Football Talk podcast. You can also find the show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, iHeart, and Spreaker.​​

SUBSCRIBE: FCS Football Talk

6. Sacred Heart at UMass

UMass is in a rough spot. Since moving to the FBS in 2013, the program’s best season is a 4-8 record (2017 and 2018). The Minutemen were 0-12 last year, including losing to a Bryant team that finished 3-9 overall and 1-7 in the CAA. This year, UMass takes on Sacred Heart, who went 8-4 in 2025 as an FCS independent. The Pioneers now move into the CAA and return key players like starting QB Jack Snyder and 1,000-yard RB Mitchell Summers. UMass ranks No. 137 out of 138 FBS teams in Bill Connelly’s SP+ preseason rankings.

By the way, who’s No. 138? That’d be Charlotte. Can The Citadel get its first FBS win since 2019?

5. Rhode Island at Temple

Rhody has an All-American QB-WR duo returning in Devin Farrell and Marquis Buchanan, plus multiple All-CAA defenders coming back, highlighted by linebackers Moses Meus and Rohan Davy. The Rams look primed to take the next step after back-to-back 11-3 seasons. And that includes notching its first FBS win since 2021. Temple was a 5-7 team last year and ranks No. 102 in Bill Connelly’s SP+ preseason FBS rankings.

RELATED: FCS Preseason Preview Central

4. Idaho State at Utah State

Idaho State seems due for an FBS win. Last year, the Bengals nearly beat two of the Mountain West’s best teams. They led UNLV in the fourth quarter before losing by a touchdown. ISU also led New Mexico in the fourth quarter before losing by 10 points. The Bengals finished 6-6 overall and 5-3 in the Big Sky, including beating quarterfinalist UC Davis and narrowly losing to semifinalist Montana. ISU will be uber-explosive on offense with the returns of QB Jordan Cooke, RB Dason Brooks, and WR Chedon James. Utah State is a gettable opponent after finishing 6-7 in 2025.

3. Illinois State at NIU

Illinois State made a historic run to the FCS title game last season as an unseeded team. The Redbirds return a solid nucleus of that squad, including four offensive linemen who played at least 400 snaps, standout running back Victor Dawson, receivers Luke Mailander and Dylan Lord, All-American linebacker Tye Niekamp, and standout safety La’Shavion Brown. Quarterback is the big question mark for ISU. If they hit on that position, this is a winnable FBS game. NIU finished 3-9 in 2025 and ranks No. 125 out of 138 FBS teams in Bill Connelly’s SP+ preseason rankings.

2. Tarleton State at Bowling Green

Tarleton knocked off FBS Army last season in double overtime and finished 12-2 overall, featuring a run to the quarterfinals. The Texans will likely be ranked around the Top 5 heading into the 2026 season as they continue to climb the FCS ranks. Running back Tylan Hines and UND transfer B.J. Fleming will make for an explosive offense, but Tarleton does have to find a new starting QB. The Texans have a favorable FBS game, facing a Bowling Green team that went 4-8 last fall.

RELATED: 2026 FCS vs. FBS Payouts

1. Montana State at Nevada

The last time Montana State played a Group of Six team was in 2024 when it visited New Mexico. The Bobcats were actually favored in that contest, opening as a 4.5-point favorite, which then ballooned to an 11.5-point favorite. A year before, Idaho was favored by three points over Nevada. (Idaho covered, while MSU beat New Mexico but didn’t cover the spread).

FCS teams being favored against FBS opponents is rare, but it has happened before. I expect Montana State to at least be a 3.5-point favorite over Nevada.

MSU returns a good bulk of its roster from last year’s FCS championship squad, including eight of its top 11 tacklers and a star-studded offense led by QB Justin Lamson, RB Adam Jones, WR Taco Dowler, and offensive lineman Titan Fleischmann. Nevada, meanwhile, finished 3-9 last season and barely beat a non-FCS-playoff Sac State team. The quotable Jeff Choate may have an interesting postgame press conference.