When we learned the spring FCS season will have a reduced playoff bracket of 16 total teams (10 auto-bids and six at-large bids), there were two takeaways right away:
1) There are going to be some really good teams left out of the bracket because of the limited at-large spots.
2) If you lose twice, you’re sitting nervously on the bubble during Selection Sunday.
It makes for a massive midseason week in the Missouri Valley Football Conference that will shake up the playoff picture. The MVFC has five teams in the Top 10 and four teams in the Top 6. Those four teams are playing each other Saturday.
No. 2 North Dakota goes to No. 4 North Dakota State. No. 6 South Dakota State heads to No. 5 Southern Illinois. NDSU, SDSU, and SIU already have one loss. No. 10 UNI suffered its second loss last week and is already on the bubble.
The loser of SDSU-SIU moves to the bubble. And NDSU would move to the bubble with a loss as well. How would MVFC bubble teams fare in the selection process?
Even if it’s still too early, let’s look at some scenarios for the MVFC and how many teams could make the playoffs.
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In a normal 24-team bracket, there are seven conferences that usually get more than one bid into the playoffs: Big Sky, Big South (sometimes), CAA, MVFC, OVC, SoCon, Southland. This means there will already be one of those conferences that won’t receive an at-large bid this spring. If a conference like the MVFC gets two at-large bids, two of those conferences will join the NEC, Patriot, and Pioneer as one-bid leagues.
How much will the playoff committee, made up of one athletic director from each playoff-playing conference, split up the at-large bids?
I believe the MVFC will get three total teams in the playoffs — one auto and two of the six at-large bids. The bracket will be too watered down as it is, and to leave out the No. 3 team in the MVFC (who will likely still be a Top 10 team) would not be good.
But if there are four MVFC teams ranked in the Top 10 at the end of the regular season, what are the chances the Valley gets all four of those teams in and takes half of the at-large bids? No way, right? Would the representatives from the SoCon, OVC, or Southland lobby for the MVFC to get four teams into the field and in doing so, possibly take away an at-large bid from their conference?
Well, we thought there was no way the CAA would get six teams into the playoffs in 2018. But that’s exactly what happened. And we thought there was no way the committee would award the Big Sky four of the eight seeds in 2019, but because Montana State defeated Montana in the regular-season finale, it worked out where the conference did get four seeds.
Let’s go down Hypothetical Highway here:
Keep in mind SIU has already beaten NDSU. And UND has already beaten SIU and SDSU.
UND beats NDSU, then both win out. SDSU beats SIU, then SIU wins out and SDSU loses to NDSU
UND 8-0
NDSU 7-2
SIU 7-2
SDSU 6-2
Who do you leave out?
NDSU beats UND, then both win out. SDSU beats SIU, then SIU wins out and SDSU loses to NDSU
UND 7-1
NDSU 8-1
SIU 7-2
SDSU 6-2
Who do you leave out?
NDSU beats UND, then UND wins out and NDSU loses to SDSU. SDSU beats SIU, then both win out
UND 7-1
SDSU 7-1
NDSU 7-2
SIU 7-2
Who do you leave out?
NDSU beats UND, then UND wins out and NDSU loses to SDSU. SIU beats SDSU, then both win out
UND 7-1
SIU 8-1
NDSU 7-2
SDSU 6-2
Who do you leave out?
Last one to really put your brain into a pretzel:
NDSU beats UND, UND wins out and NDSU loses to UNI while UNI wins out. SDSU beats SIU, then SIU wins out and SDSU loses to NDSU
UND 7-1
NDSU 7-2
SIU 7-2
SDSU 6-2
UNI 6-2
WHO DO YOU LEAVE OUT?
The chances of the MVFC getting one at-large bid is 99%. The chances of the MVFC getting two at-large bids is 65%. The chances of the MVFC getting three at-large bids might be higher than we think if any of those scenarios above come true.
