FCS Mailbag: Dark Horses, Next Teams In Realignment, FCS Schools Facing Payout Reductions

FCS fans submitted some great mailbag questions earlier this week.

Here are thoughts on top games, dark horses, favorite storyline, realignment, power shift to the Midwest, NDSU at Colorado, transfer portal coverage, FCS schools facing NCAA payout reductions as part of a settlement, and Villanova’s time in the CAA.

@JDWilliams23 — What are a couple of games you are looking forward to this year that aren’t the Brawl or the Marker that you think will shape how the season will go?

A few games that will tell us a lot about the teams — Youngstown State at Villanova, UIW at South Dakota State, Montana at North Dakota, UIW at SIU, SDSU at NDSU, Chattanooga at Western Carolina, UAlbany at Idaho

@LabanowitzStone — who is the team that nobody is talking about that they will be talking about come November?

Chattanooga, Western Carolina, or Nicholls.

@d_williams_615 — What is your favorite storyline going into next season?

Can Mark Gronowski further his legendary status by breaking the FCS wins record and leading a new-look SDSU offense to a third national championship?

@TheCalvinCooli1 — What are teams that would be next in conference realignment?

-Dominos to monitor — SFA to the Southland. Tarleton and ACU could follow. Southern Utah and Utah Tech either get absorbed into the ASUN or they join the Summit League and the MVFC.

-More CAA departures could come.

-I don’t see G5 openings right now for any FCS-to-FBS movement. But we’ll see if a big restructuring of D1 college football happens. If the P4 has its own revenue-sharing subdivision, does the G5 start its own middle subdivision? Would top FCS teams join that middle tier? Or would G5 teams try and block FCS programs from joining their new subdivision and playoff?

-Also keep an eye on the Pac2. Reporters in that region have said a Pac2 rebuild is more likely than a Mountain West merger if Oregon State and Washington State can’t get into the P4. If that happens, it could create a pathway to the FBS for MVFC/Big Sky powers. Or … the MWC gets poached by the Pac2, it then poaches CUSA, and CUSA grabs more southern FCS teams. But if you’re a Montana/Montana State/Idaho/Sac State/UC Davis/NDSU/SDSU fan who wants to go FBS, the cleanest path may be a Pac2 rebuild with G5 teams.

@Tom_Lakey — Who are your dark horse candidates for a deep playoff run?

We’ll likely see the typical names in the quarterfinals and beyond. But there are always one or two that rise and make a run. This fall, keep an eye on Chattanooga, Western Carolina, UIW, Illinois State, or Lafayette.

@AndrewMarcum15 — Will the SoCon, Southland, or any other southern school/conference become competitive in the next few years with the bigger, historically dominant, schools? What will it take from them to bridge the gap?

It’s hard to see it happening consistently. Unless the Pac2 rebuilds next summer and the trickle-down effect results in some Big Sky/MVFC powers going to the Mountain West. That would even things out some in the FCS landscape. But right now, it seems the bulk of the semifinals and championship game will be a combination of SDSU, NDSU, Montana, and Montana State with a different team rising up every year to challenge them (UIW in 2022, UAlbany and Furman last year). But I’m not sure what team can consistently do it every year.

I’ve written and talked about this a lot — The bar to win an FCS national title has never been higher. The things needed on the field and off the field to consistently compete for a championship is a bar that not many can reach. It’s easy for me to say that teams in the South and the East need to invest more in their football programs. But there’s a high ROI for the Montana and Dakota schools to invest heavily into football because they are the football teams in their state. They’ll get that money back and then some through ticket sales, merchandise, and regional sponsors, especially if you’re making deep playoff runs.

But that level of fan support, booster support, and sponsor support is rare in the FCS. Most FCS programs are fighting for attention, surrounded by FBS schools. What’s the ROI for SoCon and Southland teams to pour a ton of money into football? And do they even have the internal and external support to fund things at the same level as the top-tier teams? We’re talking facilities, NIL, cost of attendance, coaching salaries, support staff, strength and conditioning, nutrition, equipment, etc. The top-tier FCS schools can fund these at an FBS level because they are money-making football programs. Most FCS programs aren’t making the athletic department this kind of money. Heck, a lot of G5 schools are shaking out the money pockets of students as well.

Tarleton State is a program investing heavily in athletics. Maybe that’s a consistent Southern power we’ll see deep in the playoffs.

But most likely, I think every year there will be a team good enough to challenge the top-tier squads like SDSU, Montana, NDSU, and Montana State. UIW was every bit as good as the national runner-up NDSU in 2022. Same thing with Furman and Montana last year. But UIW got gutted by the portal that offseason. And Furman’s run was helped by a huge senior class that is now mostly gone.

Samford, ETSU, Holy Cross, and William & Mary also fell off after deep runs in recent years. Sustaining success has proven to be difficult.

This year? I could see a Chattanooga or a Western Carolina making a run and competing well with a top team deep in the playoffs. Maybe UIW if the transfers click.

But how SDSU/NDSU/UM/MSU look and act as football programs is not how 99% of the FCS looks. One could argue that it’s a good thing the bar to win a natty is so high. Others may say the original point of the FCS/D1-AA when Division 1 split was for D1 schools to play D1 football without pouring a ton of resources into the sport while still having a chance at a national title. But times have changed. Competing at a championship level is different now than it was in the 90s and 2000s.

Would it be a good thing for the FCS if SDSU/NDSU/UM/MSU left? The cons would be large. But the overall list of pros would be longer.

If those top four FCS programs ever left, the FCS playoff field would have much more parity, which would result in more engagement from more fan bases. But for right now, if anyone wants to catch those four consistently, year in and year out instead of catching fire once and then falling back, it’s going to take a high level of investment. How many FCS-level athletic programs want to invest that much into football?

@Brex2018 — Who do you got between NDSU and Colorado?

I think Colorado will win, but it’ll be a close game. There are just so many unknowns about Colorado that it’s hard to handicap this game with confidence.

NDSU’s d-line should be very good this year. Did Colorado address its o-line weakness well enough via the portal? We’ll see. But NDSU’s offense faces question marks at RB, WR, and OL. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 21-17 type of ball game.

No one outside of Colorado should be shocked if NDSU wins. The Bison certainly have a shot. But if I had to put $50 on a straight-up winner right now, I’d take Colorado.

@MrEd315 — So does the topsy turvy & sometimes chaotic transfer portal provide you with good job security with writing about college football or is it a pain in the rear end?

We don’t do a whole lot of transfer portal content. I have the three transfer tracker articles that I update every few days, and I’ll tweet out some updates. A few FCS Daily Dose articles talked about specific transfers. But overall, we’re not a transfer-heavy site.

FCS traffic has never been better for HERO Sports. We hit record highs last season. So despite losing big program names in recent years, interest in FCS content is stronger than ever. Analytics show FCS fans like analysis, predictions, and big-picture viewpoints of the subdivision. Articles on individual teams, players, or transfers don’t move the needle as much.

@Winterquistboys — How pissed are FCS presidents with the House vs NCAA settlement?

FCS administrators can be both happy and mad, relieved and frustrated with this settlement. If this case went to court, the NCAA would lose and owe around $20 billion in damages — backpay to former college athletes who weren’t allowed to earn money on their name, image, and likeness. The NCAA would be screwed, and all the postseason tournaments that teams and fans enjoy would be screwed.

A settlement is a good thing.

However…

What smaller conferences are unhappy about is the non-transparent process of figuring out the settlement payments and how much NCAA distribution money will be withheld from each conference.

The NCAA will foot half the bill of nearly $3 billion, paid out over 10 years. For the other half of that settlement money, 60% will come from the 27 non-P5 conferences and their schools, and 40% will come from the P5 conferences. Since most of this settlement money is going to former P5 athletes, that split should have been flipped.

“It’s both ironic and a gut punch,” Big Sky Conference Commissioner Tom Wistrcill told Yahoo Sports. “The SEC and the Big Ten are announcing record revenues and distributions to their members while I’m looking at a 10% operating budget cut so that money can go to their former student-athletes.”

Now, it does make some sense why smaller conferences are helping with settlement payments. But again, the percentage is way too high.

Reductions in NCAA payouts, like annual revenue from the NCAA Tournament, will hit every league to help pay the settlement. Smaller conferences enjoy millions of dollars in annual NCAA Tournament payouts, even if some leagues don’t add much or any value to that TV deal.

“To have those percentages, I feel is wrong. Now, we are a member of the NCAA, and we’re a Division 1 school, and I think, do we have a part in this? Well, of course we do,” Montana State AD Leon Costello said on the Cat-Griz Insider Podcast. “But to think that we should be paying more than the ones that are in the power conferences and the ones that, because of their TV contracts, are the ones that have perpetuated this, I just feel it’s disappointing.”

FCS-level schools will see an average of about $300,000 in annual reductions over 10 years. It’ll be more for some, less for others, depending on how much their conferences have earned in NCAA Tourney payouts in recent years. G5 schools will have a $450,000 annual reduction average, and P5 schools will see about a $962K annual reduction. Of course, $300,000 for an FCS school hits much differently than $1M for a P5 athletic department.

Non-P5 schools and conferences should be angry about 1) the disproportionate reductions, and 2) not being kept in the loop during these settlement talks and how the NCAA/P5s decided on the backpay plan.

At the end of the day, though, these smaller leagues are powerless. What are they going to do, refuse to pay? Then the P5s would respond with, “OK, if you don’t want to help settle this massive price tag, then we’ll do our own basketball tournament. If you won’t help pay this, then we’ll keep all the revenue that you guys are enjoying to ourselves by doing our own thing. You think a reduction is bad, just wait until you see none of that NCAA Tournament revenue when we do our own tournament. So you may not want to complain too much here.”

On a positive note, if the P5s are splitting the settlement bill with the NCAA and the non-P5s using some NCAA Tournament money, that would theoretically suggest the NCAA Tourney is safe in its current state, and the threat diminishes of the power basketball schools breaking away from the smaller schools. Access and payouts from the NCAA basketball tourney are vital. It’s the lifeblood for mid-major conferences. A football-only breakaway, though, could be a different story as a restructuring of D1 football may be nearing.

@SeanTuthill1 — Do you expect Villanova to leave the CAA anytime soon?

I’m not sure what Nova plans to do. One may assume Richmond leaving for a worse football league is because they believe other CAA teams will follow it to the Patriot League. But the lack of enthusiasm from Richmond coaches, players, and fans may make others think twice. I don’t know why Nova would leave for the Patriot League. Even if the CAA is watered down with its new additions, it’s still better than the Patriot.