“What teams/results do I need to watch for us to get a Top 8 seed?”
“What teams/results do I need to watch for us to get in the bracket from the bubble?”
As FCS Selection Sunday nears, there is a long list of Week 12 games that can impact the 24-team bracket. We list them below, conference by conference.
We included any team that could hit at least seven wins in multi-bid conferences. While winning seven games doesn’t mean you’re in the bracket, especially in a 12-game season, reaching seven D1 victories could at least get you in the initial pool of teams the selection committee will look at for the 13 at-large bids.
Rankings via the Stats Perform Media Poll and AFCA Coaches Poll. Media poll rankings are listed first. NR = not ranked.
Big Sky
No. 2/2 Montana at Portland State
At 10-0, Montana is aiming for a Top 2 playoff seed if it wins out. Hosting No. 3 Montana State is a week away, and the implications will be massive in the Brawl of the Wild. But the Griz need to handle Portland State first.
No. 9/10 UC Davis at No. 3/3 Montana State
Two teams in contention to earn first-round byes. UC Davis is 7-2 overall (7-1 vs. the FCS). Montana State is 8-2 overall (8-1 vs. the FCS). If the Aggies lose, the pressure rises to beat Sac State next week to hit eight wins. MSU, meanwhile, eyes a Top 2 playoff seed if it can beat two Top 10 teams in the final weeks.
Idaho at Sacramento State
Sac State is 6-4 overall and 6-3 vs. the FCS. If the Hornets beat Idaho and then win at No. 9/10 UC Davis next week, they are likely in the playoffs. If they lose to Idaho and beat UC Davis, they have a case to get in at 7-5. If they beat Idaho and lose to UC Davis, Sac State would lack any ranked wins to get in the bracket at 7-5.
Cal Poly at No. 24/NR Northern Arizona
NAU is 6-4 overall (6-3 vs. the FCS). With favorable games remaining vs. Cal Poly and at Weber State, the Lumberjacks have to win out to have a shot at the playoffs with eight wins. A lack of any currently-ranked victories could be a problem on the bubble, though.
CAA
No. 11/9 Rhode Island at Maine
At 8-2 overall and 8-1 vs. the FCS with no currently-ranked wins, Rhode Island looks to solidify its spot in the playoffs and be in consideration for a Top 8 seed with 10 wins. Maine, meanwhile, is 6-4 overall, 6-2 vs. the FCS, and 5-1 in the CAA. If it upsets Rhody, Maine enters the playoff conversation and could finish with eight wins (plays at UNH in Week 13).
Stony Brook at No. 10/7 Villanova
Villanova is 7-2 overall (7-1 vs. the FCS). With no currently-ranked wins, Nova will want to hit nine victories to give the playoff committee a good reason to put them in the bracket. It hosts Sacred Heart next week. Stony Brook (5-5, 5-4 vs. the FCS) could put itself in the playoff conversation if it won out to finish with seven wins and a ranked victory over Nova.
No. 12/12 Monmouth at North Carolina A&T
Monmouth is 8-2 overall with only one FCS loss and a ranked win over Villanova. The Hawks have a chance at a Top 8 seed if they win out and hit 10 wins. They have favorable games at NC A&T and vs. UAlbany.
William & Mary at Hampton
At 6-4 overall and 6-3 vs. the FCS, W&M could put itself in the playoff conversation by beating Hampton and Richmond to get to eight wins. No currently-ranked wins will be a factor on the bubble, though.
New Hampshire at Bryant
UNH is 6-4 overall, 6-3 vs. the FCS, and is coming off a big ranked win over Monmouth. If the Wildcats beat Bryant and Maine, they’d have a case to get in the bracket with eight wins. A head-to-head loss to Dartmouth, another potential eight-win team, will be a factor on the bubble.
Ivy
Penn at No. 7/11 Harvard
At 8-0, Harvard could put itself in the Top 8 seed conversation if it beats Penn and Yale. It does not have any ranked wins, though.
Yale at Princeton
Yale is 6-2 overall and 4-1 in Ivy League play. If the Bulldogs beat Princeton and then upset Harvard, they would earn the auto-bid, and the Ivy League’s chance of getting two teams in would go up.
Cornell at Dartmouth
Dartmouth is 6-2 overall with a then-ranked win over New Hampshire, who could be on the playoff bubble. If it beats Cornell and Brown, an eight-win Dartmouth team would be considered by the committee.
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MVFC
Northern Iowa at No. 1/1 North Dakota State
NDSU has the MVFC auto-bid clinched. The Bison also have a Top 2 seed pretty much locked up at 10-0 with six ranked wins. The only way NDSU does not get a Top 2 seed is if it loses both of its final two games, which seems wildly unrealistic with home contests vs. UNI and St. Thomas.
No. 17/22 South Dakota at No. 21/23 Southern Illinois
USD is 7-4 overall and 7-3 vs. the FCS. SIU is 6-4 overall and 5-3 vs. the FCS. If USD beats SIU, the Coyotes are in with eight victories and three ranked wins (UND, SDSU, SIU). If USD loses, it’d still have an argument to get in with seven victories and two Top 10 wins over UND and SDSU. It’s no guarantee, though. The Yotes are on a bye next week. SIU only has five D1 wins and no currently-ranked victories, so the Salukis need to win out to hit seven D1 wins. Six D1 victories, even if they get a ranked win this week or next week at Illinois State, may not be enough.
No. 14/13 Illinois State at No. 16/15 South Dakota State
Illinois State is 7-3 overall and 7-2 vs. the FCS with a ranked win over USD. With two ranked opponents coming (at SDSU, vs. SIU), the Redbirds could solidify a playoff spot with one more win, and they could potentially get a Top 8 seed with two more wins. SDSU is on a three-game skid after starting the season 7-0. The Jackrabbits go to ranked UND next week. Go 2-0, and they would likely be a Top 8 seed at 9-3 with four ranked wins (Montana State, YSU, Illinois State, UND). Go 1-1, and they are in the bracket at 8-4, likely in the 9-16 seed range. Go 0-2, and does a 7-5 SDSU team with ranked wins over Montana State and YSU get into the field on a five-game losing streak?
No. 13/18 North Dakota at Murray State
UND is 6-4 overall and 6-3 vs. the FCS with ranked wins over YSU and SIU. One more win, and UND has a good argument to get in with seven victories, multiple ranked wins, a No. 1 strength of schedule, and competitive losses against ranked teams. Two more wins, which would include beating SDSU, would put the Fighting Hawks in the bracket at 8-4 and in the conversation for a seed.
Indiana State at No. 20/19 Youngstown State
At 6-4 overall and 6-3 vs. the FCS with ranked wins over Illinois State and SIU, YSU has a nice pathway to eight wins and a spot in the bracket. But it has to avoid upsets vs. Indiana State and at UNI.
NEC
CCSU at Duquesne
CCSU is 7-3 overall and 5-0 in the NEC standings. Duquesne is 5-5 overall and 3-2 in NEC play. CCSU can secure the auto-bid with a win on Saturday.
OVC-Big South
No. 5/6 Tennessee Tech at Kentucky
TN Tech is 10-0 overall with nine D1 wins and no ranked victories. How does that stack up for a Top 8 seed? In last week’s playoff committee rankings, TN Tech ranked No. 7. The Golden Eagles won’t get punished for losing to a P4 school, but showing some competitiveness against a 4-5 Kentucky team would raise some eyebrows. A win as a three-touchdown underdog? Now we’re talking about TN Tech as a Top 4 seed contender if it then beats UT Martin next week.
Charleston Southern at UT Martin
UT Martin is 5-5 overall, 5-2 vs. the FCS, and 5-1 in conference play. If the Skyhawks beat Charleston Southern and then upset TN Tech, they’d earn the auto-bid, and the OVC-Big South would be a two-bid league.
Gardner-Webb at Tennessee State
Gardner-Webb is 6-4 overall, 6-2 vs. the FCS, and 4-2 in the league standings. It has a win over ranked WCU, although WCU was without Taron Dickens. If the Runnin’ Bulldogs beat TN State and WIU to finish with eight wins, the playoff committee would at least have to consider them.
Patriot
No. 4/4 Lehigh at Colgate
Lehigh is 10-0 and ranked No. 4 in the media poll, coaches poll, and by the playoff committee last week despite no currently-ranked wins. It’ll have to win out to secure a Top 4 seed.
NR/No. 25 Lafayette at Richmond
Lafayette is 7-3 overall, 7-1 vs. the FCS, and 5-0 in the Patriot League. If the Leopards beat Richmond and then upset rival Lehigh, they’d earn the conference’s auto-bid, and the Patriot League would be a two-bid league.
Pioneer
Drake at Dayton
Presbyterian at St. Thomas
The Pioneer will be a one-bid league. Four of the top teams square off this week. Drake is 5-1 in league play (lone loss to St. Thomas), St. Thomas is 5-2, Presbyterian is 4-2, and Dayton is 4-2. San Diego is also 4-2. Drake controls its own destiny, but it could be an entertaining finish to see who earns the auto-bid.
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SoCon
Chattanooga at No. 8/8 Mercer
Mercer is 8-1 overall, 7-0 in league play, and on an eight-game winning streak, featuring a ranked win over WCU. The Bears have already secured the SoCon’s auto-bid. They play at Auburn next week. If they beat Chattanooga, they’d be in the conversation for a Top 8 seed at 9-1 vs. the FCS. Chattanooga, meanwhile, is 5-5 overall and 5-4 vs. the FCS. If the Mocs pull off an upset this week and then beat Wofford, a seven-win Chattanooga team has to be considered by the committee.
ETSU at No. 25/NR Western Carolina
WCU is 6-4 overall/vs. the FCS, but it is 6-1 since the return of star QB Taron Dickens. Player availability is a factor for the playoff committee, and WCU’s record and performances with Dickens playing have been strong. The Catamounts have to avoid upset losses vs. ETSU and at VMI. The SoCon has been known for costly upsets when it comes to playoff positioning, though. If WCU wins out to finish 8-4 overall, but 8-1 with its Walter Payton Award candidate quarterback featuring a nail-biter loss to potentially Top 8 seed Mercer, it’d have a strong argument for an at-large bid.
Southland
No. 19/14 Lamar at No. 15/17 Stephen F. Austin
SFA is 8-2 overall with seven D1 wins, only one FCS loss, on an eight-game winning streak, and is 6-0 in Southland play. Lamar is 8-2 overall, 8-1 vs. the FCS with two ranked wins over USD and Southeastern, and 5-1 in league play. Lamar handed Southeastern its first FCS loss of the season last week, while SFA and Southeastern don’t play. Both teams are in a good position to reach the playoffs, but a ranked win on Saturday would go a long way for seeds.
No. 23/21 Southeastern Louisiana at UIW
Southeastern is 7-3 overall, 7-1 vs. the FCS, and 5-1 in Southland play, suffering its first loss last week to Lamar. If the Lions beat UIW and Nicholls, a nine-win team will be considered by the committee. They do not own any ranked wins, though.
UAC
North Alabama at No. 6/5 Tarleton State
At 9-1 overall, featuring an FBS win over Army and one currently-ranked win over West Georgia, Tarleton looks to remain in the Top 5 seed discussion with home wins over North Alabama and Austin Peay.
No. 18/20 Abilene Christian at Eastern Kentucky
ACU is 6-4 overall and 6-2 vs. the FCS with three currently-ranked wins over SFA, West Georgia, and Tarleton State. It also has a couple of losses to unranked teams. If the Wildcats win at EKU and Central Arkansas to finish with eight victories, it will earn the UAC’s auto-bid and likely be somewhere in the Top 16 seeds.
Central Arkansas at Southern Utah
SUU is 5-5 overall/vs. the FCS, featuring one currently-ranked win over Abilene Christian and another then-ranked win over Austin Peay. The Thunderbirds also have multiple close losses to ranked teams. If they win out and hit seven wins, the playoff committee will at least consider them.
Samford at Austin Peay
Austin Peay is 6-4 overall, featuring a 20-point win over FBS Middle Tennessee and one currently-ranked win over West Georgia. The Govs host Samford this week, who just fired head coach Chris Hatcher. They then go to No. 6/5 Tarleton State. If Austin Peay wins out, it is surely in the playoffs at 8-4. If it beats Samford and then loses to Tarleton State, a seven-win Peay team will be right on the bubble of last four in or first four out.
