Week 4 of the 2025 FCS season is here, and it features three ranked matchups.
Let’s predict some scores. Our weekly predictions are for FCS vs. FCS games only.
Predictions Record:
2025 Record: 29-11
2024 Record: 126-40
FCS Week 4 Predictions
No. 11 Villanova at No. 21 Monmouth Prediction
A ranked matchup kicks off the CAA slate for both squads. Villanova is 1-1 after a Week 1 bye, defeating Colgate 24-17 before losing 52-6 at Penn State. Monmouth is 2-1 overall and 2-0 vs. the FCS, beating Colgate 42-39 and Fordham 49-28. The Hawks lost 42-35 at FBS Charlotte last week.
The comparative data point between the two is the non-conference games against Colgate. Nova scored the go-ahead touchdown in the third quarter for the 24-17 victory. Pat McQuaide, a Nicholls transfer, threw for nearly 300 yards in the win. Monmouth needed a massive comeback to win at Colgate. Trailing 31-7 midway through the third quarter, Monmouth scored 35 straight points to take the lead.
Preseason All-American Derek Robertson is off to a blazing start for a Monmouth offense averaging 42.0 points per game. He has already thrown for 1,265 yards, 14 touchdowns, and five interceptions. Six touchdown throws have gone to wide receiver Josh Derry. The Hawks go up against what’s expected to be a top defense in the CAA, led by standouts Shane Hartzell (LB), Obinna Nwobodo (DL), and Zahmir Dawud (CB).
The question mark for both teams is the opposite sides of the ball. Can Monmouth’s defense, allowing 34.5 points per game, generate enough stops? Is Nova’s offense, averaging 15.0 points per game (granted, it’s two games and Penn State was one of the opponents), explosive enough?
I don’t think Villanova can go shot-for-shot with Monmouth. The Hawks are too good offensively to be completely slowed down. Nova’s defense is usually stout, although Colgate’s Zach Osborne threw for 239 yards and two TDs. With it being at home, Monmouth makes one or two more plays than the Wildcats in the fourth quarter.
Prediction: Monmouth 35-28
No. 19 UIW at No. 17 Northern Arizona Prediction
A prove-it game of sorts for both squads.
NAU still has some doubters on how good it really is. The Lumberjacks made the playoffs last year with only seven D1 wins and one ranked win, and then they lost 24-0 at Abilene Christian in the first round. To start this season, they are 2-1 (loss at FBS Arizona State) and 2-0 vs. the FCS. But the two wins are one-score games over unranked opponents — 38-31 vs. Utah Tech and 52-49 at Southern Utah.
UIW has plummeted in the polls after being in the preseason Top 5. The Cardinals lost 20-6 at Nicholls in Week 0, then beat Eastern Washington 31-21, and last week lost to FBS UTSA 48-20. With back-to-back ranked opponents coming (vs. Abilene Christian next week), they desperately need to go at least 1-1 these next two games to get some mojo back.
The Cardinals are making a quarterback switch. EJ Colson, a redshirt freshman who transferred from UCF this offseason, is replacing Richard Torres. Colson was an ESPN four-star recruit coming out of high school. After trailing 31-0 last week, Colson provided a spark off the bench, finishing 17/24 for 213 yards and three touchdowns.
It could shape up to be a fun quarterback battle. NAU’s Ty Pennington has been fabulous in his second season leading the offense. He’s completing 67% of his passes (63/94) for 799 yards, five TDs, and one interception.
I have some concerns about NAU’s defense, allowing 31 and 49 points against FCS competition. UIW has the offensive talent to be much better than it’s shown, and Colson could get things moving and grooving. Plus, UIW All-American wide receiver Jalen Walthall is expected to make his return after missing the last couple of games with a shoulder injury. The Jacks are tough at home, though, and haven’t suffered a loss in the Walkup Skydome since 2023.
Prediction: Northern Arizona 31-27
New Customer Offers at BetMGM
Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l Terms
No. 18 Austin Peay at No. 14 Abilene Christian Prediction
The competitive UAC race gets a key ranked matchup in Week 4.
Austin Peay comes in at 2-1, owning a decisive FBS win over Middle Tennessee (34-14) and a 56-7 victory over FCS Morehead State. The loss is a respectable 28-6 showing at Georgia. ACU is 1-2 with two FBS losses (35-7 at Tulsa, 42-21 at TCU) and a 28-20 ranked win vs. SFA.
Austin Peay has showcased a tough defense, allowing just 16.3 points per game and 80.0 rushing yards per game, impressive figures considering they’ve had two FBS opponents on the schedule. Ellis Ellis Jr. leads the unit with 21 tackles and three pass breakups, while the Govs are already up to 21 tackles for loss. They’ll contend with an ACU offense that can be more explosive than the statistics suggest. In his return to the program, Stone Earle is completing 70.7% of his passes for 655 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. Javon Gipson has emerged as his favorite target, hauling in 10 receptions for 155 yards.
ACU All-American linebacker Will Shaffer continues to be that dude, racking up 29 tackles in three games.
Austin Peay’s offense, meanwhile, is led by Mississippi State transfer QB Chris Parson, who has 492 passing yards, two TDs, and one interception, plus 90 rushing yards and another score.
Both teams have shown promise in a non-conference schedule that’s truthfully hard to gauge – four total FBS opponents, a non-scholarship FCS opponent, and a ranked FCS opponent. I was pretty dang high on SFA coming into this season. ACU’s 28-20 win after being down 14-0 early was eye-opening, showing the Wildcats may have reloaded better than expected. They return a veteran defense from last year’s playoff team, but there was a ton of production to replace offensively.
I’ll side with the home team here. I don’t expect a shootout, but it seems ACU can pop a few more explosive plays to earn a W.
Prediction: Abilene Christian 28-24
Elon at ETSU Prediction
An underrated matchup here between two teams receiving votes in the Stats Perform FCS Top 25 media poll.
ETSU will be motivated after a 35-31 loss at ranked West Georgia, a game in which the Bucs held 21-10, 28-13, and 31-20 leads at different points in the game. It dropped the Bucs to a 1-2 record, featuring a 45-17 win over Murray State and a 72-17 loss at Tennessee.
Cade McNamara has taken more QB snaps for ETSU, logging 116 compared to Jacolby Criswell’s 81. Criswell flashed last week, though, going 5/8 for 103 yards and three touchdowns. He did leave the game in the fourth quarter after taking a hit.
Elon is 2-1 and 2-0 vs. the FCS. The Phoenix lost 45-17 at Duke before beating Davidson 55-7 and Western Carolina 37-31 on the road. Redshirt freshman QB Landen Clark has impressed. While he hasn’t been the most efficient (53% passing), Clark has shown off his arm talent with his 653 yards, five touchdowns, and two interceptions. He also leads the team with 170 rushing yards and four scores. Isaiah Fuhrmann, Landyn Backey, and Zimere Winston are all over 160 receiving yards.
Defensively for Elon, Brodie Carroll has been a disruptor with 21 tackles, 5.5 TFLs, two sacks, and two forced fumbles. Ty Anderson leads the ETSU defense with 21 stops and three TFLs.
We keep on saying it, but the SoCon needs a quality non-conference win. The league is 4-12 against FCS competition with no real needle-moving victories. Elon may not be ranked, but it’s a good team. Expect a buttoned-up ETSU operation Saturday to get a win at home.
Prediction: ETSU 31-24
No. 13 Southern Illinois at SEMO Prediction
The SIU-SEMO game has been called the “War for the Wheel” since 2018, but the rivalry dates back to 1909. SIU holds a 3-2 advantage in the last five contests, and interestingly, the away team is 4-0 in the previous four games.
SIU is coming off a very impressive 37-10 road win at UT Martin, an OVC-Big South member with SEMO, to improve to 2-1 (beat Thomas More 49-3, lost 34-17 at Purdue). DJ Williams went 13/18 passing for 217 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions while rushing for 128 yards and three scores. He looks poised for an excellent season. Andrew Behm leads the defense with 29 tackles, and Colin Bohanek totals 27 stops.
SEMO is off to a 1-2 start after reaching the playoffs last season. The Redhawks lost 42-24 at FBS Arkansas State, defeated North Alabama 30-21, and then lost 41-14 at No. 1 NDSU.
SEMO’s defense has had its struggles. The offense has enjoyed the arrival of QB Jax Leatherwood, though. The 6-foot-8 and 253-pound San Diego Mesa College transfer has thrown for 642 yards, five touchdowns, and no interceptions.
On the road. Rivalry game. You never know. But SIU looks like the more complete team and should get a win if it avoids turnovers offensively and missed assignments defensively.
Prediction: SIU 35-24
More FCS Predictions
No. 25 New Hampshire at Dartmouth
Prediction: Dartmouth 27-24
Drake at No. 15 South Dakota
Prediction: USD 28-14
NC Central at North Carolina A&T
Prediction: NC Central 31-24
Youngstown State at Towson
Prediction: YSU 27-21
Chattanooga at No. 3 Tarleton State
Prediction: Tarleton State 42-14
Central Arkansas at No. 24 Sacramento State
Prediction: Sac State 35-21
Southern Utah at No. 9 UC Davis
Prediction: UC Davis 38-28
Northern Iowa at Utah Tech
Prediction: Utah Tech 24-21
