The FCS Daily Dose is a blog-style article series featuring an assortment of news, rumblings, quick hitters, and commentary on various topics.
A new Daily Dose will be published multiple times a week.
Thoughts On Missouri State’s FBS Move And A Potential G5 Playoff
The news dropped Friday morning that Missouri State is joining the FBS and Conference USA, effective July 1, 2025.
Here are some widespread thoughts on Missouri State’s move with a bonus tangent on why three D1 *football* subdivisions are needed:
-My first thought when the news hit my inbox was that I was surprised it wasn’t leaked before the press release. My second thought was I’m glad CUSA’s newest addition (and probably its last for a while) wasn’t Tarleton State.
-Tarleton State, who is just finishing up its reclassification period from D2, has the internal/external support, resources, and facilities to be an FCS contender. The Texans were also a candidate for CUSA. If the FCS had a choice on sending either Tarleton or Missouri State to CUSA, Mo State would be the pick.
-And that’s no offense to Missouri State. Tarleton just has a brighter future as an FCS member. Mo State has finished 4-7 and 5-6 in the last two seasons after an 8-4 record in 2021. The Bears have reached the FCS playoffs only twice in the last 30 years. As we move past the initial freakout online whenever realignment happens, let’s take a breath and realize this is not that bad of a loss for the FCS.
-The FCS has certainly noticed the absence of JMU, and it will notice the absence of Delaware. The FCS misses Sam Houston, Kennesaw State, and Jacksonville State as known southern commodities. While those three weren’t necessarily on a national championship level except for SHSU in the 2021 spring, they added good depth to Tier 2. Will the FCS notice Missouri State no longer being in the subdivision? Probably not.
-Even if the loss of Missouri State specifically isn’t a needle-mover, the overall watering down of the FCS and the FBS continues. Sam Houston being in the same subdivision as Alabama and Mercyhurst being in the same subdivision as Montana is banana-land. More on this below.
-Six FCS teams have left for the FBS since 2021: James Madison to the Sun Belt; Missouri State, Delaware, Kennesaw State, Sam Houston, and Jacksonville State to Conference USA.
-If I had to rank these departures based on which ones hurt the FCS the most, I’d go: 1. JMU, 2. Delaware, 3. SHSU, 4. JSU, 5. Kennesaw, 6. Missouri State.
-Missouri State will pay a $5 million fee to transition to the FBS, which increased from $5,000 last fall.
-Some thought that fee increase would slam the door shut on FCS-to-FBS moves, but I didn’t think that was the case. Many FCS teams can pay that fee. If you can’t, then you shouldn’t be in the FBS, which is the reason why the transition fee increased. And to note again, the NCAA didn’t increase this fee. The Division I Council did, which is made up of FCS and FBS administrators.
-Missouri State’s average home attendance of 9,143 last fall would have ranked 132nd in the FBS, ahead of only Sam Houston and Akron.
-FBS schools previously had to meet minimum attendance requirements (average 15,000 people in actual or paid attendance per home game), which had to be met once in a rolling two-year period. That FBS attendance requirement has been replaced with a scholarship requirement. All FBS schools are required to provide 90% of the total number of allowable scholarships over a two-year rolling period across at least 16 sports, including football. Schools are required to offer at least 210 scholarships each year, amounting to no less than $6 million in athletics scholarships offered.
-Missouri State moving up before NDSU or South Dakota State is further proof that location is more important than on-field success in these FCS-to-G5 moves. If the Bison were located in Missouri, I’m highly confident they would be in the FBS by now.
-Good for Missouri State. This is a wanted move that school administrators have discussed for a bit. They obviously feel this is the right move for their institution and athletic department.
-“If you can’t even compete in the FCS, why go FBS?” was a common online reaction.
-The answer is an FBS move could get Missouri State football out of its rut. The Bears were going nowhere in the FCS, largely irrelevant except for a spurt of two playoff appearances in the 2021 spring/fall seasons. Maybe an FBS move generates more regional attention, gets students and alumni more engaged, sells more tickets, gets more sponsors, gets some momentum going, and it all generates more on-field success. That’s the good scenario. The bad scenario is Missouri State football sucks in the FBS. Well, that was mostly the case in the FCS anyway. Might as well take the FBS jump when the opportunity is there to see if it ignites something.
-Some online discourse occurred after the Mo State news regarding what the MVFC will do to replace the Bears. I don’t think the MVFC needs to or wants to add anyone. Ten members are plenty. But the MVFC is in a unique position of being a football-only conference made up of Missouri Valley Conference members (Indiana State, Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois, Missouri State, Murray State, Illinois State) and Summit League members (South Dakota, South Dakota State, North Dakota, North Dakota State). Youngstown State plays in the Horizon League.
-The MVFC added Murray State because the MVC wanted Murray for its other sports. Now if the MVC wants to replace Missouri State, or the Summit League wants to add a team to get its membership up, and that school or schools need a football home, then that’s when the MVFC could see an expansion. I just don’t know if the MVFC is driving the conversation on adding teams right now.
-I’ll say it again — There should be three *football* D1 subdivisions while the other sports continue as is. Let’s restructure football while not messing with March Madness, the College World Series, etc.
-To help settle the massive House vs. NCAA lawsuit, about $20M-$30M of revenue-sharing with athletes per year is coming for the power schools that can afford it. That’s a lot of dough, even for those schools. So while the highest-ranked G5 champion currently has an auto-bid into the 12-team CFP, G5 coaches and admins sound skeptical that their seat at the table will last much longer. If P4 schools need to share that much revenue with their players, they may pull back the future amount of CFP distribution they’re giving the G5. The SEC and Big Ten are quite literally running the show for the CFP. The P4 splitting away from the G5 seems like just a matter of time.
-That’s why a G5 playoff is being discussed and why a Group of Five Top 25 poll is in the works. While this has gotten plenty of pushback from G5 fans because they don’t want to be relegated to the “new FCS,” coaches and admins in the Group of Five are talking about this because they know the status quo of the FBS landscape isn’t lasting much longer.
-The hope is that the best G5 champion still gets an auto-bid into the CFP, but what about the next 4 or 8 or 12 best G5 teams? Bowl game reputation has taken a hit. Could there be more revenue for G5 schools to have a playoff instead of playing in bowl games? Could bowl games sponsor the semifinals and G5 national championship game to keep the revenue flowing? Is a G5 playoff operated by the NCAA, like the NIT? Or does it have its own governing body, like the CFP?
-If a G5 playoff happens, you can bet a lot of FCS teams will want to be a part of the new second-tier postseason. Not just NDSU, SDSU, Montana, and Montana State, but Austin Peay, EKU, McNeese, Tarleton, Idaho, Sac State, UC Davis, Villanova, William & Mary, Jackson State, FAMU, North Dakota, South Dakota, Chattanooga, and plenty more.
-The power conference breakaway and G5/top-of-FCS merger have been talked about for years. It seems we’re getting closer to it finally happening. NDSU AD Matt Larsen believes so too. But let’s say the 60-70 G5 teams have their own subdivision and start a 12-team playoff after the P4 splits. What incentive do the G5 teams have in adding FCS programs? Why would they let FCS powers join their party, dip into whatever revenue pot the new playoff has, and also potentially take some playoff access opportunities from them?
-Some of the pushback may be G5 teams looking down their nose at the FCS — “We’ve already been relegated from the power programs, why would we add FCS teams to make this more of an FCS 2.0?”
-Some of the pushback may be G5 teams realizing top-tier FCS programs would come in and immediately be among the best — “JMU became a top G5 team immediately, so why would we let in NDSU, SDSU, Montana, and Montana State only for them to take a couple playoff spots every year from our current members?”
-Some say teams like Missouri State and Delaware are smart to get in the boat now. Others say they are dumb to pay the $5M only to be back in the second-tier subdivision sooner than later. Getting in the boat now so you have guaranteed access to this potentially new G5 playoff is probably a smart play. But right now, as CUSA gets its wanted 12th team, G5 conferences have no incentive to add. NDSU followers can yell “We gotta go now” all they want, but there’s no current pathway. More dominos need to fall before additional FCS teams get the FBS callup.
-What’s the pathway when an FBS split happens?
-The same reasons why an FCS conference or group of teams can’t just declare themselves FBS today could also apply to this new hypothetical G5 subdivision. There will be hope from dozens of FCS teams to get in and politicking from the G5 to keep most FCS teams out, if not all of them out. Perhaps somehow the NCAA could set the requirements to be in each subdivision, where teams or conferences need to hit a baseline of football investment to qualify.
-This is probably wishful thinking on 1. hoping the NCAA can be assertive like this, and 2. the courts helping out the NCAA. But if settling the House case can also come with some sort of antitrust protections for the NCAA, hopefully the NCAA (aka the D1 Council or the Board of Governors or whoever) can recommend and adopt new requirements for three D1 football subdivisions (while the other sports continue under one umbrella).
-Something like:
-Super Division 1 requires schools to revenue share at least X amount per year with its athletes (Power 4 teams). Division 1-A requires 85 football scholarships (G5 teams, top FCS teams) featuring a new playoff system supported by the NCAA with funding assistance from a TV deal plus bowls sponsoring some postseason games. Division 1-AA or FCS requires 63 scholarships with the continued 24-team playoff. D1 schools unable or unwilling to fund 63 football scholarships may move their football program to D2 or lower while their other sports can remain D1. Thus eliminating the Dayton Rule, a rule stating your football team needs to be in the same division as your basketball team.
-Of course, it’s more complex when you factor in conference membership and TV deals. What happens if half a conference wants to be in one subdivision and the other half can’t afford it? Or what happens if San Diego State wants to be in the highest subdivision but no P4 conference wants to add them due to more revenue distribution concerns? Completely restructuring college football makes so much sense. But getting every conference and every TV deal on board with massive movement would be difficult.
Past Daily Doses
Bronson Yoder’s Return A Big Boost For W&M + Cole Wisniewski, Gus Miller Named Top 150 NFL Draft Prospects … READ MORE
An Early Look At My 2024 FCS Preseason Top 10 Teams … READ MORE
UAlbany Lands Former FCS Freshman All-American WR Jacari Carter, Cal Poly’s Sam Huard Enters The Portal … READ MORE
