Every week of the 2019 FCS season, Sam Herder will give his Top 15 favorites to win the national championship. This is somewhat similar to my STATS Top 25 Poll except that it won't include any Ivy League and HBCU teams.
It's also a bit different because in most polls if a team loses, they drop some spots. In this ranking, that may not always be the case as this is a look ahead to who has the best chance to win it all in January. The beauty of the FCS is one loss doesn't derail the hope of hoisting that trophy in Frisco, Texas.
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This is a big-picture look at the national scene and doesn't worry as much about the week-to-week movements in a typical Top 25 poll.
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15. Kennesaw State
Last week's ranking: 14
This is the second year in a row the Owls should have beaten an FBS opponent, but they let it slip away. This would've been a huge playoff resume booster because the overall strength of schedule just isn't there. KSU is going to go on now and win a ton of games it should win in convincing fashion. But for now, I see the Owls as getting a first-round playoff victory but I'm not yet sold on them beating a seed and getting past the second round.
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14. Nicholls
Last week's ranking: 13
Nicholls had an early bye week after getting smoked by Kansas State 49-14. I thought the Colonels would compete a bit better against the Wildcats, so I need to see more from this team before they rise in these rankings.
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13. Central Arkansas
Last week's ranking: 12
This week was a good test for the Bears after knocking off an FBS opponent. UCA traveled to a good Austin Peay team and came away with a 24-16 win. QB Breylin Smith is for real, people, and he threw for 283 yards and three scores.
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12. Northern Iowa
Last week's ranking: 11
I had questions about UNI's quarterback situation in the preseason. Will McElvain has answered those questions after looking good in a near upset at Iowa State last week. Then against Southern Utah, he went 17-25 for 262 yards and three touchdowns. For now, I have the Panthers as a team that can make it to the second round again, but still not completely sold on a run to the quarterfinals or beyond. A Sept. 28 game at Weber State will tell me a lot.
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11. Furman
Last week's ranking: 10
Furman is off to an impressive start. They led Georgia State, who beat Tennessee last week, 20-3 at one point in the first half. But GSU was able to come back and win 48-42. Right now, Furman looks like the favorite in the SoCon. I don't know if that will be enough for a playoff seed just yet.
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10. Weber State
Last week's ranking: 9
The Wildcats handled business against Cal Poly and won 41-24. That's a nice confidence booster for the offense after getting shut out against FBS San Diego State. Weber had two rushers go over 100 yards, but I still need to see what the passing game can do against a good FCS defense.
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9. Montana State
Last week's ranking: Unranked
Montana State made a statement Saturday, dominating No. 12 SEMO 38-17 in Bozeman. We know the running game is there for the Bobcats. While there is certainly room for growth in the passing game, I expect that growth to happen. And just look at MSU's schedule. The Bobcats will be favored to win their next eight games before facing UC Davis and Montana to end the regular season. Avoiding disappointing losses will have this team in the conversation for a playoff seed.
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8. Illinois State
Last week's ranking: 8
The Redbirds bounced back from a close FBS loss and handled Morehead State 42-14. It's still tough to get a true gauge on this team, especially with these first two opponents. Playing at Eastern Illinois and versus Northern Arizona — two decent FCS squads — should tell us more.
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7. Towson
Last week's ranking: 7
Towson's defense has shined in the first two weeks, allowing only 21 points against The Citadel's triple-option attack and holding NC Central to three points on Saturday. Couple that with an explosive offense and so far, the Tigers are looking good.
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6. Maine
Last week's ranking: 6
Maine lost 26-18 to FBS Georgia Southern. I didn't expect a win here, so the score doesn't disappoint me. I do think the Black Bears will get an FBS win in October versus Liberty. All-American linebacker Deshawn Stevens is out with a season-ending injury and that's a big blow. But Maine's defense should still be a solid unit with the offense looking improved so far.
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5. South Dakota State
Last week's ranking: 5
The Jackrabbits were without starting QB J'Bore Gibbs in a 38-3 win against Long Island, who is in its first season as an FCS program. Gibbs has a finger injury on his throwing hand but isn't expected to miss significant time. I've been told this is more of a precautionary thing, although a redshirt freshman missing valuable snaps is a concern. SDSU's defense looked good again and the offensive weapons are as good as it gets in the FCS.
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4. UC Davis
Last week's ranking: 3
San Diego is a legit program out of the non-scholarship Pioneer Football League. It's beaten two Big Sky teams in the playoffs in 2016 and 2017. But that was against OK Big Sky opponents. Taking UC Davis, who has national title hopes, down to the wire makes me pause a bit about the Aggies. USD should've won this game actually but fumbled at the goal line as a player reached for the end zone, resulting in a 38-35 UC Davis win. We talked about it all offseason, but UC Davis needs to get better on defense. While USD's offense is explosive, it doesn't match what top-tier FCS teams can do with the ball.
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3. Eastern Washington
Last week's ranking: 4
It's hard to take a whole lot away from a blowout win against D2 Lindenwood. But allowing 31 points is a concern. And even more so when you see the Eagles' inexperienced secondary allow 289 yards passing. I moved EWU one spot up over UC Davis because I like EWU's schedule a bit more and UC Davis had a tight game against non-scholarship San Diego.
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2. North Dakota State
Last week's ranking: 2
Last week I looked at prices for the Trey Lance hype train, but didn't make the purchase. This week, I bought a ticket but still am waiting to actually jump on board. So far, he's doing things not many redshirt freshman can do with his arm strength, accuracy, agility when running the ball at his size and being fundamentally sound and smooth in his mechanics. Butler's defense was a warmup. But UND's defense is a pretty good FCS unit, returning its top seven tacklers from last year's team that was No. 26 in scoring defense. Lance is the real deal, but he has yet to face a high-pressure situation.
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1. James Madison
Last week's ranking: 1
JMU's offense was good, not great … yet still won 44-7 against a pretty decent Saint Francis defense that ranked 11th in the FCS last year 20.2 points allowed per game. Yes, I know a lot of that is because they faced NEC opponents. But the point is the Dukes offense can go from good to great if it can score TDs in the red zone. And the defense still looks like a top unit in the FCS. Teams just aren't going to score a lot of points on JMU.
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NEXT: FCS Playoff Predictions
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