Every week of action in the FCS shapes the playoff picture. While coaches and players will give you the cliche answer of wanting to compete for a conference championship, the long-term goal is always to set yourself up for a playoff seed or a playoff bid.
As more games are played and conference foes eat each other up, the 24-team bracket is going to change. But our FCS staff of Brian McLaughlin and Sam Herder are going to make weekly predictions on what they think the playoff field is going to look like.
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The first few weeks will be projections. But as the season progresses and more games are played, this will turn into a "what the playoff field would look like if the season ended today."
The guys break down their seeds, first-round teams, the last three in and the first three left out in the table below.
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| SLOT | BRIAN | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | JMU | NDSU |
| 2 | NDSU | JMU |
| 3 | SDSU | EWU |
| 4 | UC Davis | Maine |
| 5 | Maine | UC Davis |
| 6 | EWU | SDSU |
| 7 | Towson | UCA |
| 8 | UCA | Towson |
| NEC | Duq. | Duq. |
| PAT | H. Cross | Colgate |
| PIO | Dayton | USD |
| Non-seed1 | Ill. St. | Furman |
| Non-seed2 | Nicholls | Weber |
| Non-seed3 | Furman | Mont. St. |
| Non-seed | EKU | Dela. |
| Non-seed | Kennesaw | Kennesaw |
| Non-seed | Mont. | Mont. |
| Non-seed | Mont. St. | Nicholls |
| Non-seed | UNI | SHSU |
| Non-seed | Nova | UNI |
| Non-seed | Weber | YSU |
| Last 3 in | SHSU | Ill. St. |
| Last 3 in | YSU | EKU |
| Last 3 in | Elon | Elon |
| Bubble | ||
| 1st 3 out | The Citadel | SE La. |
| 1st 3 out | SE La. | SEMO |
| 1st 3 out | JSU | SIU |
Table notes
- “1-8” – The seeds.
- “NEC, PAT AND PIO” – The automatic berths for the NEC, Patriot and Pioneer conferences.
- “Non-seed 1,2,3” – These are 3 teams right on the verge of being a seed, ranked 1-3.
- “Non-seed” – These are the next batch of at-large teams in alphabetical order.
- “Last 3 in” – The last three teams we think squeak in.
- “1st 3 out – The first three schools left out of the bracket.
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Brian's Thoughts:
We saw some movement this week around the FCS Nation, and again … I don't let FBS losses affect this, nor do I let big D-2/NAIA wins matter. This falls in line with how the playoff committee chooses teams in November. I'll start with the seeds for now. I swapped SDSU and UC Davis because of their first two weeks of results. I just think the Jackrabbits have looked a bit sharper so far. This week I gave a nod to Holy Cross and Dayton in the Patriot League and Pioneer Football League, as both had massive wins and both look pretty tough and I think they'll be in contention for those leagues' automatic berths.
Then we come to the Montana schools. Definitely going to give these two a hard look in the coming weeks to move up. Montana will obviously have its hands full next week at P5 Oregon, but a loss there won't drop the Griz in my ranking. Montana State, on the other hand, has winnable games for many weeks coming up. If the Bobcats do what they seem capable of doing, I may have them as a playoff seed in coming weeks.
On the topic of the Montana schools. I tweeted this a few times on Saturday, but I'm beginning to think that with the way these two schools' seasons lineup, there's a chance a playoff seed may be on the line when the Brawl of the Wild comes rolling around — as long as these teams live up to the expectations they set forward this past weekend. Both beat good teams handily on Saturday.
As for the "last three in" category, I think Youngstown State's two tune-up wins have been solid and Elon's win over The Citadel is a quality win we'll look back at in November. I have Jacksonville State on the cusp of being back in if the Gamecocks do well the next two weeks at home. We shall see. The one obvious omission here is Southern Illinois after its massive blowout win over FBS UMass. The Salukis are right on the cusp too, but because of their blowout loss to SEMO in Week 1 and SEMO's blowout loss to Montana State in Week 2 … I'm just playing a little bit of wait and see, for now. If they get rolling a bit here in the next few weeks, they're in.
As for the conference-by-conference breakdown, the old chasm between the top three conferences and the rest of the FCS has been wide the first two weeks. MVFC, CAA and Big Sky teams collectively have handled their business and have been dominant. For now, they occupy 12 of the at-large berths in my estimation. However, that number will undoubtedly come down as they begin to cut each other up in league play and other teams emerge. I feel certain the SoCon and OVC will pick up more spots than I have them with presently.
Conference Count: (Not including bubble teams) MVFC – 5, CAA – 5, Big Sky – 5, Southland – 3, SoCon – 1, OVC – 1
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Sam's Thoughts:
This week was a little easier than Week 1, but we're still obviously nowhere close to getting a feel for the playoff picture. I kept my auto-bids from the NEC, Patriot and Pioneer the same, although Holy Cross and Dayton will certainly make things interesting after posting big nonconference wins against UNH and ranked Indiana State.
Seeds – My seeds didn't change from last week. Thinking from the standpoint of a playoff committee member, I believe the Bison have that No. 1 seed spot until they lose or another resume is legitimately strong enough to take the top seed.
Where's The Movement?: I moved Montana State up to the near-seed category. That was a convincing win against SEMO, who I moved out of the bracket and onto the playoff bubble. Taking SEMO's spot in the field is Elon after a solid win against The Citadel, who I had on the bubble last week but bumped all the way off for right now. Indiana State also got the bump after a terrible loss to Dayton. I added Southern Illinois to the playoff bubble because of its decisive win against FBS UMass, but the Salukis still have a head-to-head loss to SEMO.
Conference Count: (Not including bubble teams) Big Sky – 5, MVFC – 5, CAA – 5, Southland – 3, OVC – 1, SoCon – 1 …. (I have no doubt that the SoCon will get more than one team in, I'm just waiting to see which teams rise to the occasion.)
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