The popular pick for No. 6 seed UC Davis playing at No. 3 seed Eastern Washington in the FCS quarterfinals will be the home team. And that's fine.
Pointing to the Eagles winning this contest 59-20 on Nov. 10 in Cheney, Washington, is fine, too. But to think this will be another blowout would be a mistake.
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While EWU is the favorite, this is a more even matchup than a 39-point win would indicate.
The wheels fell off for UC Davis in that November game. The Aggies took a quick 10-0 lead in the first quarter, but EWU battled back for a 21-17 halftime advantage.
Then things started to go downhill for UC Davis, and uphill for the Eagles.
Nzuzi Webster took an interception back for a touchdown early in the third quarter. Three minutes later, Antoine Custer scored on a one-yard run. Just like that, it was 35-17. EWU scored four more times in the fourth quarter, including three in a five-minute span.
Jake Maier has thrown just eight interceptions this season to go with 32 touchdowns. Two of those interceptions came against EWU.
College football trends, especially at the FCS level with a 24-team bracket, show a game is more evenly-matched if two opponents play again in a short period of time.
Let's not be mistaken, a UC Davis win would still be considered an upset. But expect a barn-burner of a game between two of the best teams in the Big Sky Conference.