Last season, nine FCS teams defeated FBS opponents in 98 games. The subdivision that crowns a true national champion hopes to get that number back to double digits as 111 games pit the two Division I leagues against each other.
As the gap continues to shrink between the top FCS teams and the lower-level FBS teams, some of these wins shouldn't be considered “upsets” anymore. The word upset is used because the FCS has 22 fewer scholarships. But the truth is a lot of FCS programs are flat out better than teams in the “big boy division.” In fact, some sportsbooks have a few FCS teams as the favorite in these matchups.
Here are 10 of the most likely FCS wins ranked followed by 10 potential victories that would be considered big upsets not many see coming:
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10 Most Winnable Games
10. Nicholls @ Tulane (Sept. 8) – Remember two years ago when Nicholls went to Georgia and almost knocked off the Bulldogs, losing 26-24? A lot of youngsters played in that game who are now leaders on the 2018 team, including quarterback Chase Fourcade, running back Dontrell Taylor and wide receiver Damion Jeanpiere. The Colonels return 14 starters from last year’s team that went 8-4 with a trip to the playoffs. Tulane went 5-7 last year. Former Sam Houston State head coach Willie Fritz won’t overlook his former Southland Conference foe, but Nicholls may prove to have more talent on the field.
9. Western Illinois @ Illinois (Sept. 8) – The Leathernecks have a chance to prove doubters wrong after an 8-4 season that saw the postseason. WIU suffers big losses on the offensive line and its leader, Brett Taylor, on defense. But the experience at the offensive position groups and standouts on all three levels of the defense should keep this team competitive. WIU smoked FBS Coastal Carolina last year 52-10. Meanwhile, Illinois went just 2-10 and returns 64 percent of the team’s production from last season.
8. Howard @ Kent State (Sept. 8) – Howard shocked the nation last year when the Bison opened the season with a 43-40 win at UNLV. The country was introduced to Caylin Newton, Cam’s little brother, as he threw for a touchdown and rushed for two more on 190 yards. The Bison almost did it again the next week, losing 38-31 to Kent State. They’ll get another shot at the Golden Flashes. Howard returns 13 starters, including Newton, from last year's 7-4 team. Kent State is coming off a 2-10 season with an experienced offense that returns 87 percent of its production.
7. Illinois State @ Colorado State (Sept. 22) – While the Redbirds have questions to answer on the defensive side, the offense could be special behind the legs of preseason All-American running back James Robinson. ISU went 6-5 last year but hopes to return to the playoffs in 2018. Colorado State finished a decent 7-6 and made a bowl game. However, the Rams have an FBS-worst 35 percent of the team’s production coming back with only 27 percent returning on offense. They also play Florida the week before while the Redbirds have a bye.
6. North Carolina A&T @ East Carolina (Sept. 1) – ECU learned real quick what the defending FCS national champs can do, getting whipped 34-14 by James Madison as part of a 3-9 season last year. While they aren’t the defending national champions, the Aggies did go 12-0 in 2017 and won the Celebration Bowl to win the HBCU National Title. NC A&T took down Charlotte out of Conference USA during its run. The firepower is back with Lamar Raynard leading the way at quarterback. ECU is breaking in a new quarterback while its defense is coming off a season ranking last in the FBS with 45.0 points allowed per game and 541.7 yards allowed per game.
5. Southern Utah @ Oregon State (Sept. 8) – Jonathan Smith has quite the challenge ahead of him in his first year as Oregon State head coach. He has a young roster that went 1-11 in 2017, the lone win being 35-32 against FCS winless Portland State. The Beavers return just 58 percent of their offensive production and play Ohio State on Sept. 1. That sets up nicely for SUU, who won a share of the Big Sky title last year, finishing 9-3 with a playoff seed. The defense does lose a majority of its starters. The offense returns eight starters but loses its starting quarterback. Regardless of the losses, the Thunderbirds have been underrated in recent years on just how strong of a team they are.
4. Kennesaw State @ Georgia State (Aug. 30) – With the campuses located less than 20 miles from each other in the Atlanta area, this is shaping up to be an exciting matchup. KSU is entering just its fourth season as a program but has quickly become a team on the national radar after a 12-2 year with a trip to the quarterfinals. More than 15 starters return, including basically the entire offense that finished first in the FCS in rushing. Georgia State finished 7-5 in 2017 with a bowl game. The Panthers kicked off last season with an FCS loss to Tennessee State. They are toward the bottom of the FBS with only 57 percent of the team’s production coming back.
3. UC Davis @ San Jose State (Aug. 30) – UC Davis is a rapidly-rising team coming off a 5-6 year with 13 returning starters. The passing attack is lethal with quarterback Jake Maier, tight end Wesley Preece and NFL Draft prospect at wide receiver Keelan Doss. San Jose State went 2-11 last year and struggled defensively, allowing 41.7 points per game and 213.9 passing yards per game. While 90 percent of its offensive production returns, more than half of its defensive production is gone.
2. Northern Arizona @ UTEP (Sept. 1) – UTEP did not win a game last year and might be the worst FBS team in 2018. Meanwhile, NAU is coming off a 7-5 year with a playoff appearance and should be stronger this season. Quarterback Case Cookus and wide receiver Emmanuel Butler, another NFL Draft prospect, should take advantage of a defense that allowed 36.8 points per game and 212.3 passing yards a game.
1. Nicholls @ Kansas (Sept. 1) – Kansas is, well, Kansas. And as mentioned above, Nicholls is loaded with talent. The Colonels could very well start their season 2-0 with two FBS wins. Along with the close Georgia loss two years ago, Nicholls was tied at 14-14 with Texas A&M last year in the fourth quarter before the Aggies score the final 10 points. Kansas does return 91 percent of its production, the second best in the FBS. That doesn't necessarily mean a good thing. The Jayhawks haven’t won more than four games since 2009 and have a combined three wins in the last three years. Two of those came against FCS opponents. But Nicholls likely isn’t going to be the third.
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10 Possible Upsets
Grambling State @ Louisiana-Lafayette (Sept. 1) – Grambling lost two great offensive weapons in Martez Carter and Devante Kincade, but still has plenty of talent with 15 preseason All-SWAC players after a Celebration Bowl appearance. The Ragin’ Cajuns have the sixth-most offensive production returning in the FBS coming off a 5-7 season.
Elon @ South Florida (Sept. 1) – USF went 10-2 last year but returns an FBS sixth-worst 46 percent of the team’s production, including 38 percent on offense. Elon brings back 17 returning starters on an 8-4 team. This is an experienced squad who will be able to hold its own.
Eastern Washington @ Washington State (Sept. 15) – EWU returns a senior-loaded team with an elite quarterback in Gage Gubrud off a 7-4 year. The Cougars went 9-4, but lose more than half of its offensive production and coaching staff. EWU is 3-4 against FBS opponents since 2012, including a 45-42 win against Washington State in 2016.
Villanova @ Temple (Sept. 1) – Villanova has a ton of returning experience after injuries bit the team last year to finish 5-6. The Wildcats are going to have a terrific defense as the Temple offense struggled at times during last year’s 7-6 record.
South Dakota State @ Iowa State (Sept. 1) – The big-name pass catchers are gone for SDSU and Iowa State is coming off its best season in recent memory. But this is still a game to keep an eye on. The Jackrabbits are an experienced bunch with a senior quarterback who’s played big against an FBS opponent before. The Cyclones are at the bottom half of the FBS with 58 percent of its team production returning.
New Hampshire @ Colorado (Sept. 15) – Colorado begins its season against rival Colorado State. The next week is at Nebraska. UNH can easily slip in an upset in Week 3. The Wildcats return 18 starters after going 9-5. Colorado went 5-7 and lose more than half of the team's production.
James Madison @ North Carolina State (Sept. 1) – NC State resembles the North Carolina team JMU lost 56-28 to in 2016 more than last year’s 34-14 win against East Carolina. But the Dukes are coming off another 14-1 season with tons of talent returning. NC State has 70 percent of its offensive production coming back, but only 35 percent on defense.
Idaho State @ Liberty (Oct. 20) – Liberty makes its FBS debut after transitioning from the FCS the last couple years. The Flames opened last season with a surprising 48-45 win against Baylor, but then played 10 FCS opponents and finished with a mediocre 6-5 record. Idaho State has an intriguing team this year with 15 returning starters from a 4-7 season. Both were probably on equal footings last year as FCS programs.
Weber State @ Utah (Aug. 30) – The senior losses from last year’s 11-3 Weber State team are glaring, but the Wildcats still have a ton of talent returning with a Big Sky-best six players on the preseason All-Conference team. This is a squad that was tied with Cal last year in the fourth quarter before losing 33-20. Utah was decent last year, going 7-6 with a bowl win. Sixty-nine percent of the team’s production is back, but Weber’s style of play will make this a close game.
Western Carolina @ North Carolina (Nov. 17) – We’ll end on a stretch here. UNC’s season is off to a rocky start with 13 players getting suspended for selling team-issued shoes. Coming off a 3-9 year, it’ll be interesting to see how the Tarheels handle this season, especially late in the year with all this turmoil. WCU is a sneaky solid FCS team that went 7-5 last year. UNC did beat the Catamounts 65-10 last year. But we’ve seen some crazy November FCS vs. Power 5 games in the past, especially when distractions surround the FBS team.
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