Preseason polls are always interesting. Many people say they don’t put much stock into them, yet it always turns into a debate when released. When it comes to the FCS Preseason Top 25, there are a couple methods voters use. They either take last year’s playoffs results as a measurement to where they vote teams. Or they look ahead and predict which teams are actually going to be better than the others.
The latter, in my opinion, is much better. The defending national champions don't have to be voted No. 1. And a team that made the quarterfinals doesn’t have to be voted in the Top 10. For the 2018 season, though, it’s quite obvious reigning champs North Dakota State and runner-ups James Madison will be voted No. 1 and 2. But who exactly deserves to be No. 3?
Some may say Sam Houston State or South Dakota State because they made the 2017 semifinals. Others might say quarterfinalists Kennesaw State should be No. 3 because the Owls bring back more than SHSU and SDSU. Or how about Weber State, who played JMU the toughest in the playoffs before the title game? Some may even do their homework and realize a team who didn’t even make the playoffs last year potentially has the third best chance to win a national title. Eastern Washington sure looks to be solid. Or how about Jacksonville State, who has been bounced out of the playoffs early the last couple years but brings in some pieces that could get the Gamecocks back to Frisco?
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More FCS No. 3 discussion:
Eastern Washington | Jacksonville State
Kennesaw State | South Dakota State | Weber State
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Those are six worthy teams to be voted preseason No. 3. Or maybe they’re not worthy, depending on how you feel a preseason poll should be voted. So let’s discuss each team.
We’ll break them down in six articles and explain why they deserve to be No. 3 and why they don’t. Then a seventh article will give fans a chance to give their thoughts with an opportunity to vote for the most deserving team. Because even if preseason polls don’t matter in the long run, people sure like to voice their opinions on them. [divider]
Sam Houston State
Why the Bearkats deserve to be preseason No. 3
Ah, Sam Houston State. A team that definitely gets more crap than it deserves, considering the Bearkats have the second best resume in the FCS since 2011. But it’s also a team that tends to be overrated come November by national voters and the playoff committee because of their record and inflated offensive numbers.
It’s nearly impossible to get a read on this team. It all depends on which side of the SHSU spectrum you stand on. The team breaks offensive records every year and has incredibly talented skill position players. Then again, some of that may have to do with playing weak defenses. They rarely have more than one loss in the regular season. Then again, the Southland Conference isn’t too strong from top to bottom. They routinely make it to the national quarterfinals or semifinals. Then again, they’ve gotten blown out in all those games.
But no matter how you slice and dice it, the Bearkats are a solid program overall. In the last four playoff losses, three of them came against the eventual national champion. SHSU has made the semifinals three times in those four years and the quarterfinals once. That’s a dang good run.
Offensively, the Bearkats have been rich in talent. They led the FCS last year in total offense (538.1 yards per game) and points per game (43.3). Replacing two-time Walter Payton Award winner Jeremiah Briscoe at quarterback is going to be the biggest key in 2018. But the job may be a little easier with Davion Davis and Nathan Stewart back after combining for 150 catches, 2,854 yards and 31 touchdowns.
The unit reloads with weapons each year and will be explosive once again. Looking at the schedule, the Bearkats have a terrific shot at going 11-0, which could mean another high seed.
Sure, the blowout losses to end the seasons are hard to look past. But SHSU has the talent back to make another deep push into December like they have every season since 2014.
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MORE: Every NFL Draft Pick From Sam Houston State
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Why they don’t
Then again, those blowout losses might tell a bigger story. Four years in a row SHSU has lost in the postseason by scores of 35-3, 62-10, 65-7 and 55-13. Yet year after year, they are still seeded by the playoff committee. Last season, it was maybe thought that this group was different, led by seniors like Briscoe putting up monster numbers.
But when it came down to play a national power, the Bearkats got exposed by NDSU. Briscoe didn’t look like an NFL Draft pick some thought he could be. The defense looked lost with no apparent regard for being assignment sound. The lines on both sides didn’t have the physicality needed. There were no excuses, no injuries, no “yeah, buts.” Even head coach K.C. Keeler had a zinger in the postgame press conference, saying “their men were better than my boys.”
Damn.
So where does that lead the 2018 Bearkats? If they go 10-1, or even undefeated, and lead the FCS in scoring again, how good are they? How do we even determine that with a schedule that features only two 2017 playoff teams that lost in the first or second round? Would they deserve a seed over a team like Weber State, who didn’t have as good of a record or a stat sheet as SHSU did in 2017, but competed tough against JMU?
Can the Bearkats even put up those kind of numbers again without Briscoe? And will the defense get any better with the loss of P.J. Hall, a defensive lineman picked in the NFL Draft?
The 2017 Bearkats were 110th in total defense (453.3 YPG) and 99th in scoring defense (31.2 PPG). That’s not going to get it done. Scoring 60 points in a game is cool and all. But allowing 48 points to Incarnate Word stands out more. A high-flying offensive, soft-defensive team isn’t built to win an FCS national title.
SHSU has been one of the best FCS programs in the 2010s. But it also hasn’t been close lately when it comes to top-level, Tier 1 FCS teams.
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NEXT: The Best Player in FCS Who Wears Each Number, 1-99
