Just before the start of the season, FiveThirtyEight, the celebrated polls and stats analysis website, published a fascinating article demonstrating that the favorite for the Super Bowl on the eve of the regular season usually doesn’t go all the way to lift the Vince Lombardi trophy the next February. The simple takeaway was that only two of the last 17 pre-season favorites have gone on to win the Super Bowl.
That stat is particularly important for fans of the Patriots, who have been the picks of the sportsbooks before the start of the season no less than eight times since 2005. Bill Belichick’s men were also favorites this season, with odds coming in around +600. The usual suspects – The Rams, Eagles, Vikings and Steelers were all coming in a good distance behind the Patriots, with odds somewhere in the vicinity of +1000.
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Rams worthy favorites – but be cautious
Now, as you would expect with how the season has gone so far, the current NFL betting shows the Rams to be way out in the lead. A price of +300 is given by 888sport, with most sportsbooks following suit. It’s hard to argue with the Rams as favorites, as Sean McVay has his team buzzing, but those odds are a big call this early in the season for any team.
Indeed, the Patriots are a decent example of how we can jump the gun too early. As mentioned, they were the clear favorites before the season got underway. A decent opening game seemed to confirm that the sportsbooks were correct to have them on that top. Then, there was that two-game losing streak, against the Jaguars and Lions, which saw them tumble down the odds.
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AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh[/credit]
Of course, the Patriots seem to have got their season back on track, even if they did ride their luck at times in that crazy game against the Chiefs. As a consequence, their odds have stabilized with 888sport at +550, which is not far off from where they were at the start of the season. To be fair, it’s still not bad value for a team almost guaranteed to be playing in January each season.
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Other teams may show better value
The question then is – where does the value lie? With the consistently excellent Rams at short odds? Or with the seemingly unreliable Patriots at a similar price to preseason? The answer is, probably, neither. Sure, nobody would be surprised if those two teams end up contesting Super Bowl LIII, but in terms of bang for your buck, you might want to look elsewhere.
Bear in mind that the Eagles were rather unfancied through the start and early part of last season, coming in at odds of around +4000, so it’s not out of the realms of possibility to see a team like the Chargers (+1800), the Bears (+2500) or even the Cowboys turn things around. The time between now and February 3rd.
The Rams deserve all the plaudits they are receiving this season, but what if Jared Goff or Todd Gurley get injured at the weekend? That’s a risk anyone betting on NFL has to take, but the point is those odds of +300 will start to look a little short if the Rams run out of form or acquire some bad injuries. In the end, you should follow your gut and not the betting markets, wherever that may lead you.
