For nearly a decade, we knew what we were getting from Northern Illinois football: Fundamentally sound, offensive efficiency, strong running game, advantageous defense, and at least eight wins. We don't know what we're getting from Northern Illinois football.
To be fair, Northern Illinois, ranked 115th in the HERO Sports Preseason College Football Rankings, hasn't plummeted from Orange Bowl participant and the picture of Group of Five stability into the depths of helplessness; even with two five-win seasons since 2016, they still have 26 wins over the last four years, tied for 73rd in the FBS.
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But even in a transitioning year under first-year, first-time head coach Thomas Hammock, it didn't feel like Northern Illinois football. The offensive line ranked among the nation's worst in most of Football Outsiders' metrics, including 119th in line yards, 104th in stuff rate, and 91st in passing-downs sack rate. And that was with All-MAC tackle Jordan Steckler and solid seasons from center Christopher Perez and guard Benn Olson.
They were historically terrible on third downs (33 percent), couldn't run the ball (3.9 yards per carry), couldn't force turnovers (one per game) or stop turning it over (1.6 per game), and couldn't find any rhythm or efficiency on offense, averaging just 5.1 yards per play and 0.323 points per play.
Even with marginally improved health, there are too many transitioning questions to be fixed during this unusual offseason, which will lead to another bowl miss, their second straight for the first time since 2002-03.
| Date | Opponent | Prediction |
|---|---|---|
| Sept. 5 | vs. Rhode Island | Win (1-0) |
| Sept. 12 | at Maryland | Loss (1-1) |
| Sept. 19 | at Eastern Michigan | Loss (1-2) |
| Sept. 26 | at Iowa | Loss (1-3) |
| Oct. 3 | vs. Kent State | Win (2-3) |
| Oct. 10 | vs. Central Michigan | Loss (2-4) |
| Oct. 17 | at Ball State | Loss (2-5) |
| Oct. 24 | vs. BYU | Loss (2-6) |
| Nov. 3 | vs. Buffalo | Loss (2-7) |
| Nov. 10 | at Western Michigan | Loss (2-8) |
| Nov. 17 | vs. Toledo | Loss (2-9) |
| Nov. 27 | at Bowling Green | Win (3-9) |
