After this Saturday, the baby that was the 2017 college football season will already be a month old
[Sniff sniff] They grow up so fast!
One of the nice things about the maturation of the season is that we can start to see trends developing. Conference play is starting to get into full swing as well, and if ever there's something I like to bet on it's the historical trends between conference mates. (More on that later in the season.)
Before looking at the week four point spreads, let's quickly take a gander at my predictions from last weekend.
The good: I told you San Jose State looked exhausted having already played an extra game and been beaten up by Texas 56-0 the week before. Sure enough, the injuries mounted in Salt Lake City as Utah easily covered the -27 with a 54-16 win.
Let's move onward and look at the college football odds for week four.
[All spreads are courtesy of Sportsbook.ag. Lines fluctuate as bets are made, so check out their website for up-to-the-minute odds.]
The Rich Rod hot seat is going to be scorching after this contest against the Utes on Friday night. I don't care that the Wildcats are 11th in the country at 47-points-per game. Rolling it up on Northern Arizona and UTEP doesn't mean much when that's sandwiched in-between a 19-16 home loss to Houston.
Alabama -19 at Vanderbilt
You remember our Bama theory, right?
Alabama tends to cover in big showdowns (week 1 versus Florida State) only to come back home and not cover against far inferior opponents (Fresno State week 2, Colorado State week 3). So far my theory is a perfect 3 for 3 this year.
I look to make it four in a row in a game I think will be close in the first half due to an insanely energized 3-0 Vanderbilt team and home crowd, only to watch the Crimson Tide's defense and special teams take the game over in the final two quarters as it so often does.
Utah State -3 at San Jose State
Take the Aggies to win by seven as there's no way starting QB Kent Myers can have a repeat performance like last Saturday's 9 of 23 outing for just 54 yards and a pick.
How's that for the most non-analytal, non-quantitative college football pick of the week?
Houston vs. Texas Tech Over 71.5
Trends on trends on trends.
That's what I base 90% of my college football picks on, and last week it paid big-time dividends when the Red Raiders (a scoring machine with a porous defense the past few years) hit the over with the Sun Devils before the fourth quarter even began.
Let's ride the hot hand with Houston on the other side of the ball this time.
I have a confession to make: I bought into the preseason Josh Allen hype.
Ride the Rainbows.
Side note: Did you have any idea these teams play for something called the Paniolo Trophy?
— Wyoming Cowboy FB (@wyo_football) September 20, 2017
ALL COLLEGE FOOTBALL ODDS FOR WEEK 4
Thursday, September 21
South Florida -21 vs. Temple
Friday, September 22
Boise State -12 vs. Virginia
Utah -3.5 at Arizona
Saturday, September 23
Florida State -13 vs. NC State
Tennessee -28 vs. UMass
West Virginia -22.5 at Kansas
Louisville -44 vs. Kent State
Ohio State -40.5 vs. UNLV
Houston -6.5 vs. Texas Tech
Tulane -2.5 vs. Army
Texas A&M -2.5 vs. Arkansas in Arlington, TX
Georgia Tech -8 vs. Pittsburgh
Tulsa -9.5 vs. New Mexico
Eastern Michigan -2.5 vs. Ohio
Virginia Tech -28 vs. Old Dominion
South Alabama -3.5 vs. Idaho
Maryland -3.5 vs. Central Florida
Wake Forest -4 at Appalachian State
Duke -2.5 at North Carolina
Clemson -34.5 vs. Boston College
South Carolina -8.5 vs. Louisiana Tech
Central Michigan -2 vs. Miami (OH)
Indiana -24 vs. Georgia Southern
Nebraska -12 vs. Rutgers
Miami (FL) -13.5 vs. Toledo
Navy -11.5 vs. Cincinnati
Alabama -19.5 at Vanderbilt
Oklahoma State -14 vs. TCU
USC -16.5 at California
Michigan -10 at Purdue
UL Lafayette -6.5 vs. UL Monroe
Charlotte Even vs. Georgia State
Troy -15.5 vs. Akron
Washington State -28 vs. Nevada
North Texas -11 vs. UAB
Oklahoma -28 vs. Baylor
Georgia -5 vs. Mississippi State
Buffalo -3 vs. Florida Atlantic
LSU -21.5 vs. Syracuse
SMU -5.5 vs. Arkansas State
Western Kentucky -7.5 vs. Ball State
San Diego State -3.5 at Air Force
Penn State -12.5 at Iowa
Florida -2.5 at Kentucky
Auburn -19.5 at Missouri
UT San Antonio -14 at Texas State
Rice vs. FIU (No Line)
Utah State -3 at San Jose State
New Mexico State -18 vs. UTEP
Notre Dame -14 vs. Michigan State
Washington -10.5 at Colorado
Oregon -15 at Arizona State
Wyoming -6.5 vs. Hawaii
Stanford -7.5 vs. UCLA
Sunday, September 24
Connecticut -4.5 vs. East Carolina