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Ranking the Most Important Remaining Regular-Season Games for the Playoff Picture

HERO Sports by HERO Sports
October 29, 2017
Ranking the Most Important Remaining Regular-Season Games for the Playoff Picture

The college football gods have bestowed upon us a delectable assortment of big-time, playoff-impacting games over the final four weeks of the regular season.

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While the four-team field won't be exclusively determined by the results over the next month and matchups will unexpectedly impact the playoff, some games are guaranteed to carry far more weight than others. 

Here are the 12 remaining games that could have the biggest impact on the College Football Playoff, ranked.

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12. Penn State at Michigan State

Week 10

Despite their Week 9 loss at Ohio State, Penn State is still alive in the playoff hunt. They just need a lot of help. If they win out and Ohio State loses to both Michigan State and Michigan, the Nittany Lions are Big Ten East champs and would play Wisconsin for a playoff spot.

If the Spartans win, they are a win over Ohio State away from winning the East.

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11. Alabama at Auburn

Week 13

While the Iron Bowl could have huge playoff implications if Auburn were to shock Alabama, the likelihood of that happening is why this game is buried at No. 11.

As of now, Alabama and LSU both control their own SEC title destiny, but an Alabama win over LSU in Week 10 would flip the control from LSU to Auburn, who could win out and win the East. If that happens, is Alabama a one-loss, non-conferece title-winning playoff team? And would two-loss Auburn have any chance?

This game carries a lot of weight even if it's unlikely Auburn beats Alabama.

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10. Ohio State at Michigan

Week 13

Similarly to the Iron Bowl, The Game is a big one for Ohio State, even if the odds of a loss are slim. While the Buckeyes control their own Big Ten Championship (and playoff) destiny, but so does Michigan State, who captures the Big Ten East if they win out.

However, if Ohio State loses to Michigan but wins their other three remaining games, they'd still win the East and could be a two-loss playoff contender.

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9. Georgia at Auburn

Week 11

The million-dollar question: If Alabama and Georgia are both undefeated in the SEC Championship, are both teams in the playoff regardless of the outcome? Maybe, but what if Georgia has one loss, for example a Week 11 defeat at Auburn?

This game is huge because it would make the SEC title game a must-win for the Bulldogs, assuming they don't drop a second regular-season game.

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8. Virginia Tech at Miami (FL)

Week 10

Virginia Tech is not eliminated from the playoff yet, and while they don't entirely control their own destiny, they do control their own ACC Championship destiny. That victory plus one over Clemson (or North Carolina State) might be enough to warrant inclusion, or strong consideration at the very least.

On the other side, Miami doesn't have any résumé wins but winning out in the regular season would give them two — Virginia Tech and Notre Dame — plus a chance for a third in the ACC Championship vs. Clemson or North Carolina State. 

The loser of this game is eliminated because a one-loss non-ACC champ has no shot.

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7. Michigan at Wisconsin

Week 12

Wisconsin has zero margin for error. They must win out, including the Big Ten Championship. 

There are a lot of pieces to this game. If Michigan wins but Wisconsin still wins the Big Ten Championship, it could knock the entire conference out of the playoff. If Wisconsin wins, would they still get trucked in the title game by Ohio State, thus making this game a moot point?

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6. Oklahoma at Oklahoma State

Week 10

The Big 12's only playoff chance is a one-loss team winning the conference championship. And they have three such teams: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and TCU.

The outcome of this game, quite frankly, doesn't matter, because any of those three teams should make the playoff by winning out. However, it's in the best interest of the conference to get a win for the team that's more likely to run the table.

Is that Oklahoma (vs. TCU, at Kansas, vs. West Virginia) or Oklahoma State (at Iowa State, vs. Kansas State, vs. Kansas)? That's why this game is big.

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5. TCU at Oklahoma

Week 11

See above for the first reason why this game is important. The exact same rules apply here as they did in the Oklahoma-Oklahoma State game.

Second, if Oklahoma loses to the Cowboys but beats TCU (and Oklahoma State loses to Iowa State) is the Big 12 done?

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4. Notre Dame at Stanford

Week 13

If Notre Dame enters this game with one loss, they'll be playing for a playoff spot. Win, they're in; lose, they're out.

Yes, it's possible Stanford could contend for a spot if they enter with two losses and wins over USC, Washington and Washington State, but that's unlikely, making this game all about Notre Dame.

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3. Clemson at North Carolina State

Week 10

Clemson is done with a loss. They'd be two games back of North Carolina State and without the tiebreaker. 

That would also reduce the ACC's margin for error to almost nothing, because the Wolfpack won't get in with two losses. If, for example, North Carolina State wins and beats the ACC Coastal champ in the title game, the conference might be out.

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2. Notre Dame at Miami (FL)

Week 11

This game, obviously, carries more weight if Miami beats Virginia Tech a week earlier, and also becomes irrelevant if Miami loses that game and the Irish falls to Stanford in Week 13.

Both Notre Dame and Miami won't be in the playoff. The loser is done.

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1. Washington at Stanford

Week 11

This game reigns supreme because a Stanford win could knock the entire Pac-12 out of the playoff. There is no other single regular-season game that's guaranteed — at this moment — to do the same.

As mentioned above, the Cardinal's playoff aren't completely extinct, though the conference's best chance remains Washington, who must win out to have any shot.

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