Ranking the Top 100 College Football Teams for 2018: No. 14 Mississippi State

In the 100 days leading up to the kickoff of the college football season on Saturday, Aug. 25, HERO Sports is ranking the top 100 teams in the FBS. Each day, starting May 17 and ending Aug. 24, a new team is revealed in the HERO Sports Top 100. 

No. 14 Mississippi State

Out is Dan Mullen, one of the most respected and proven head coaches in college football who's spent the last 13 years of his career in the SEC. In is Joe Moorhead, a guy whose hire as Penn State offensive coordinator just two years ago prompted "Who?" reactions and a guy who's never coached anywhere near the south. 

It was a surprising hire but one that could pay immediate dividends given Mississippi State's personnel. The Bulldogs have a lot to prove but they have enough pieces to make noise in the SEC and potentially contend for a playoff spot.

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2017 Record: 9-4 (4-4, SEC)

Mississippi State rebounded from consecutive road demolitions vs. Georgia and Auburn (combined score of 80-13) to win six of their final eight games, a stretch that included a near-upset of Alabama.

It was their fourth season with at least nine wins since 2014 and fifth season with at least four conference wins since 2010.

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Head Coach: Joe Moorhead (1st Year)

"[W]e're not here to maintain. We're here to elevate," Joe Moorhead said at his introductory press conference last November.

If Moorhead keeps Mississippi State as one of the SEC's most consistent programs and routinely leads the Bulldogs to nine wins, he'll be beloved and appreciated. If Moorhead transforms Mississippi State into an SEC champion and annual playoff contender, he'll be a living legend.

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Player Losses

OT Martinas Rankin, WR Donald Gray, LB Dez Harris, CB Tolando Cleveland, CB Lashard Durr

A JUCO transfer, Martinas Rankin's Mississippi State career got off to a bumpy start early in 2016 but rebounded to become one of the SEC's better linemen by season's end. He followed it up with an All-SEC senior season and was a third-round pick in the 2018 NFL Drat.

Defensively, they lost both starting corners, Tolando Cleveland and Lashard Durr. Cleveland recovered from a missed 2016 (torn ACL) to lead a pass defense that ranked 27th in opponent passer rating. Linebacker Dez Harris is also gone after a strong senior year. 

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Returning Offensive Players

QB Nick Fitzgerald, RB Aeris Williams, RB Kylin Hill, WR Keith Mixon, WR Jesse Jackson, WR Malik Dear, OT Stewart Reese, G Darryl Williams, G Deion Calhoun, C Elgton Jenkins

Joe Moorhead worked magic with the Penn State offense in two seasons, leading an efficient unit that averaged 0.57 points per play (fifth in the FBS) and converted 48 percent of third downs (fourth) and 90 percent of red-zone opportunities (20th). He doesn't have Trace McSorley, Saquon Barkley or DaeSean Hamilton but the Bulldogs have more than enough pieces to move the ball in a variety of ways in 2018.

“I sometimes refer to our offense as the Chipotle offense. There’s not a ton of ingredients but there’s a ton of mixing and matching going on,” Moorhead said in March. "You have a few things you can hang your hat on and through different tags and RPO aspects, you can change the presentation and make it look like you are doing more than you actually are.”

Leading the RPO-heavy attack is senior quarterback Nick Fitzgerald, a 6-foot-5, 230-pounder coming off an underwhelming season. He didn't take the big step forward after a promising 2016 but was better than his numbers suggest (56 percent completion, 6.2 yards per attempt) — or at least smarter than his numbers suggest.

As I noted early last season, Fitzgerald was much more patient; he forced fewer balls into coverage. In the first quarter of the LSU game, watch as he looks for Jesse Jackson before checking down to Keith Mixon to set up 2nd-and-5 instead of 2nd-and-10. Though he'll look deep more in Moorhead's system, these checkdowns will still happen a lot, particularly with their running backs.

Excluding a five-attempt game vs. Ole Miss, Fitzgerald averaged only 25 attempts, one of the lowest numbers among all FBS starting quarterbacks. That number will be over 30 this season, especially if they get better receiver play.

Eleven players caught at least eight passes but none caught more than 27 or had at least 300 yards. Malik Dear is back from a torn ACL, Keith Mixon is healthy after an injury-plagued season limited him to 18 receptions (though he did average more than 15 yards per catch), and leading receiver Jesse Jackson is back. Fitzgerald needs a downfield threat to emerge.

The Bulldogs' won't run on 64 percent of their plays again but they will average five yards per attempt again with the return of four starters on the offensive line — including right tackle Stewart Reese after a solid redshirt freshman season — and top two running backs in Aeris Williams and Kylin Hill.

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Returning Defensive Players

DE Gerri Green, DE Montez Sweat, DT Jeffery Simmons, DT Braxton Hoyett, LB Erroll Thompson, LB Willie Gay, CB Chris Rayford, CB Cameron Dantzler, S Mark McLaurin, S Johnathan Abram

"Our defense will be special," Moorhead proclaimed at SEC Media Days. 

The defense was mostly average last year, ranking between 36th and 52nd in the FBS in most areas, including points per play (52nd), yards per rush attempt (47th) and turnovers (39th), though they did have a ferocious pass rush (10.3 percent sack rate, up from 5 percent in 2016) and were darn good on third downs (31.9 percent). 

Seven starters return for new coordinator Bob Shoop, a former FCS head coach in New York City (Columbia) like Moorhead who's quickly become one of the most revered coordinators in the country. Shoop will rarely use a three-man front; you can expect to see several 4-2-5 looks throughout the season, especially given how well the Bulldogs' defense played in nickel formations last year. 

All four starters return on the defensive line, including junior tackle Jeffery Simmons (below) and senior end Montez Sweat. Simmons had 12.5 tackles for loss and is a likely first-round pick in the 2019 draft.

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“There’s a bunch of guys up front where we can run eight, nine or 10 guys up front,” Shoop said in March. “We have as much depth up front as any place I have ever been, and I don’t feel like there is a significant drop-off between those guys."

With some outside linebacker moved to end in the new system, Erroll Thompson and Willie Gay are projected to be their primary linebackers. Both played as freshmen, combining for 69 tackles.

The secondary is interesting. While they do return two senior safeties in Mark McLaurin and Johnathan Abram — both capable in coverage and near the line of scrimmage (top two tacklers last year) — there are questions at corner. Cameron Dantzler showed some flash as a freshman last year after a strong 2017 spring practice, and Chris Rayford turned a corner as a junior, but both need more consistency. If those four guys can blanket receivers, the pass rush could have a sack rate of 10 percent again.

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Player Additions

WR Devonta Jason, WR Stephen Guidry, CB Tyler Williams

Devonta Jason was the five-star 2018 recruit who made headlines when committing to Kansas — and remaining committed for nearly a year — before flipping to Mississippi State. He enrolled early and will have a noticeable role in their passing attack.

They also landed the top-ranked JUCO receiver in the class in Stephen Guidry, a 6-foot-4, 190-pounder who was limited in spring practice because of injury but is 100 percent and could lead the team in receiving.

Redshirt freshman corner Tyler Williams will be a reserve this year but could start in 2019.

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Schedule

Mississippi State's Week 2 game at Kansas State is their first non-conference Power Five matchup since they lost to Oklahoma State in Houston in the 2013 opener.

They don't have back-to-back home games, play one road game between their Sept. 22 trip to Kentucky and Nov. 10 trip to Alabama, and miss Georgia from the SEC East.