As spring's first bloom emerges from the darkness of winter symbolizing the signs of change, the NFL Draft announces the beginning of the NFL season, and with it, hope.
[divider]2018 NFL DRAFT:
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31 franchises will set their sights on winning the Super Bowl. No other position is more valuable than the quarterback. It is the cornerstone of a franchise and the most popular first round pick. Make the right selection, and your fortunes can turn instantly. Make the wrong pick, and you may find yourself picking early in the draft for years to come.
With great reward comes great risk, however.
48 quarterbacks have been selected in the first round since the 2000 draft. Less than half of them — 20 — are projected to start week one of the 2018 NFL season. At the same time, 14 of those 20 first round starting quarterbacks were selected within the first four picks.
Despite the Internet and draft analyzers best attempts to dissuade you — most of the time — quarterbacks selected within the top four picks provide a healthy return on that investment. Only five quarterbacks have not panned out (Robert Griffin III, Joey Harrington, David Carr, Vince Young and Jamarcus Russell).
On the other side of the spectrum, holding out in hopes of finding a diamond in the rough can be a risky proposition. Only six of this season's projected 32 starters were selected in the fourth round or lower. Three of those players, (AJ McCarron, Tyrod Taylor and Case Keenum) are merely holdovers and not projected to be franchise players.
Much like those players drafted later, those who are selected in the first round and start are not accurate indicators of franchise-altering quarterbacks. Only one current starting quarterback selected first has won a Super Bowl.
Investing in a franchise quarterback is risky. To find a starter, however, is less perilous and gives the fan base something it needs–hope.
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| Name | Team | Draft Position |
|---|---|---|
| Sam Bradford | Arizona | 1.01 |
| Matt Ryan | Atlanta | 1.03 |
| Joe Flacco | Baltimore | 1.18 |
| AJ McCarron | Buffalo | 4.24 |
| Cam Newton | Carolina | 1.01 |
| Mitch Trubisky | Chicago | 1.02 |
| Andy Dalton | Cincinnati | 2.03 |
| Tyrod Taylor | Cleveland | 6.15 |
| Dak Prescott | Dallas | 4.37 |
| Case Keenum | Denver | Undrafted |
| Matthew Stafford | Detroit | 1.01 |
| Aaron Rodgers | Green Bay | 1.24 |
| Deshaun Watson | Houston | 1.12 |
| Andrew Luck | Indianapolis | 1.01 |
| Blake Bortles | Jacksonville | 1.03 |
| Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City | 1.10 |
| Phillip Rivers | LA Chargers | 1.04 |
| Jared Goff | LA Rams | 1.01 |
| Ryan Tannehill | Miami | 1.08 |
| Kirk Cousins | Minnesota | 4.07 |
| Tom Brady | New England | 6.33 |
| Drew Brees | New Orleans | 2.01 |
| Eli Manning | NY Giants | 1.01 |
| Josh McCown | NY Jets | 3.16 |
| David Carr | Oakland | 2.04 |
| Carson Wentz | Philadelphia | 1.02 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | Pittsburgh | 1.11 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | San Francisco | 2.30 |
| Russell Wilson | Seattle | 3.12 |
| Jameis Winston | Tampa Bay | 1.01 |
| Marcus Mariotta | Tennessee | 1.02 |
| Alex Smith | Washington | 1.01 |
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NEXT: Here's How a Record 7 Quarterbacks Could Be Drafted in the 1st Round
