There's a reason NFL mock drafts are 100-percent correct, or even remotely accurate. It's really, really hard to predict the wants, needs, thoughts and feelings of 32 NFL front offices that are weighing the opinions and evaluations from hundreds of sources for hundreds of prospects.
That's why mock drafts change constantly. ESPN's Todd McShay has published four mock drafts since Feb. 8 and only one player (Texas A&M defensive end Myles Garrett) is projected in the same slot (No. 1, Cleveland Browns) in all four mocks. In fact, only four players even appeared in the same slot three times.
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McShay's first mock draft (1.0) was published on Dec. 13, 2016, eight weeks prior to the end of the NFL season, therefore he used ESPN's Football Power Index to project the draft order. Because many slots are not correct, we've only included his most recent four mock drafts in this post.
First, a breakdown of every first-round pick from his mock drafts on Feb. 8, March 15, April 5 and April 12. In addition to the noted consensus and near-consensus picks, here are a few other notable items:
- 12 teams had four different players in the four mocks.
- Browns (DE) Broncos (OT) are only team to draft the same position in all four.
- A receiver was projected inside the top five only once (Western Michigan's Corey Davis).
- A running back was projected inside the top 10 three times, but all were LSU's Leonard Fournette.
Here is a team/slot breakdown of all 32 picks across the four mock drafts (scroll down for a player breakdown and notes):
| Pick | Feb. 8 | March 15 | April 5 | April 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Browns | M. Garrett – DE (Texas A&M) | M. Garrett – DE (Texas A&M) | M. Garrett – DE (Texas A&M) | M. Garrett – DE (Texas A&M) |
| 2. 49ers | D. Watson – QB (Clemson) | S. Thomas – DE (Stanford) | S. Thomas – DE (Stanford) | S. Thomas – DE (Stanford) |
| 3. Bears | J. Allen – DT (Alabama) | J. Adams – S (LSU) | J. Allen – DT (Alabama) | J. Adams – S (LSU) |
| 4. Jaguars | J. Adams – S (LSU) | O.J. Howard – TE (Alabama) | L. Fournette – RB (LSU) | J. Allen – DT (Alabama) |
| 5. Titans | C. Davis – WR (Western Michigan) | J. Allen – DT (Alabama) | M. Hooker – S (Ohio State) | M. Lattimore – CB (Ohio State) |
| 6. Jets | M. Lattimore – CB (Ohio State) | M. Lattimore – CB (Ohio State) | J. Adams – S (LSU) | M. Hooker – S (Ohio State) |
| 7. Chargers | M. Hooker – S (Ohio State) | M. Hooker – S (Ohio State) | D. Watson – QB (Clemson) | C. Davis – WR (Western Michigan) |
| 8. Panthers | L. Fournette – RB (LSU) | L. Fournette – RB (LSU) | D. Barnett – DE (Tennessee) | L. Fournette – RB (LSU) |
| 9. Bengals | S. Thomas – DE (Stanford) | R. Foster – LB (Alabam) | C. Davis – WR (Western Michigan) | D. Barnett – DE (Tennessee) |
| 10. Bills | M. Williams – WR (Clemson) | C. Davis – WR (Western Michigan) | M. Lattimore – CB (Ohio State) | R. Foster – LB (Alabama) |
| 11. Saints | T. Charlton – DE (Michigan) | D. Barnett – DE (Tennessee) | H. Reddick – DE (Temple) | K. King – CB (Washington) |
| 12. Browns | M. Trubisky – QB (North Carolina) | D. Watson – QB (Clemson) | O.J. Howard – TE (Alabama) | O.J. Howard – TE (Alabama) |
| 13. Cardinals | R. Foster – LB (Alabama) | T. White – CB (LSU) | M. Trubisky – QB (North Carolina) | D. Njoku – TE (Miami FL) |
| 14. Eagles | T. Tabor – CB (Florida) | C. McCaffrey – RB (Stanford) | C. McCaffrey – RB (Stanford) | C. McCaffrey – RB (Stanford) |
| 15. Colts | D. Cook – RB (Florida State) | F. Lamp – G (Western Kentucky) | F. Lamp – G (Western Kentucky) | F. Lamp – G (Western Kentucky) |
| 16. Ravens | M. McDowell – DT (Michigan State) | J. Ross – WR (Washington) | C. Robinson – OT (Alabama) | M. Williams – WR (Clemson) |
| 17. Redskins | J. Peppers – S (Michigan) | D. Cook – RB (Florida State) | R. Foster – LB (Alabama) | H. Reddick – DE (Temple) |
| 18. Titans | S. Jones – CB (Washington) | M. Williams – WR (Clemson) | M. Williams – WR (Clemson) | J. Ross – WR (Washington) |
| 19. Buccaneers | O.J. Howard – TE (Alabama) | D. Njoku – TE (Miami FL) | D. Njoku – TE (Miami FL) | G. Bolles – OT (Utah) |
| 20. Broncos | R. Ramczyk – OT (Wisconsin) | G. Bolles – OT (Utah) | G. Bolles – OT (Utah) | C. Robinson – OT (Alabama) |
| 21. Lions | D. Barnett – DE (Tennessee) | C. Harris – LB (Missouri) | T. McKinley – LB (UCLA) | T. McKinley – LB (UCLA) |
| 22. Dolphins | D. Njoku – TE (Miami FL) | H. Reddick – DE (Temple) | G. Conley – CB (Ohio State) | G. Conley – CB (Ohio State) |
| 23. Giants | T. McKinley – LB (UCLA) | R. Ramczyk – OT (Wisconsin) | M. McDowell – DT (Michigan State) | J. Davis – LB (Florida) |
| 24. Raiders | J. Davis – LB (Florida) | K. King – CB (Washington) | J. Davis – LB (Florida) | D. Cook – RB (Florida State) |
| 25. Texans | G. Bolles – OT (Utah) | M. Trubisky – QB (North Carolina) | R. Ramczyk – OT (Wisconsin) | R. Ramczyk – OT (Wisconsin) |
| 26. Seahawks | C. Robinson – OT (Alabama) | M. McDowell – DT (Michigan State) | K. King – CB (Washington) | M. McDowell – DT (Michigan State) |
| 27. Chiefs | T. White – CB (LSU) | A. Kamara – RB (Tennessee) | D. Cook – RB (Florida State) | T. White – CB (LSU) |
| 28. Cowboys | T. Williams – LB (Alabama) | T. Charlton – DE (Michigan) | T. Charlton – DE (Michigan) | Q. Wilson – CB (Florida) |
| 29. Packers | A. Kamara – RB (Tennessee) | G. Conley – CB (Ohio State) | C. Harris – LB (Missouri) | C. Harris – LB (Missouri) |
| 30. Steelers | C. Harris – LB (Missouri) | T. McKinley – LB (UCLA) | J. Ross – WR (Washington) | T.J. Watt – LB (Wisconsin) |
| 31. Falcons | Q. Wilson – CB (Florida) | C. Robinson – OT (Alabama) | J. Peppers – S (Michigan) | T. Charlton – DE (Michigan) |
| 32. Bears | H. Reddick – DE (Temple) | Q. Wilson – CB (Florida) | P. Mahomes II – QB (Texas Tech) | A. Jackson – CB (USC) |
Todd McShay has included only 37 total players in at least one mock draft since Feb. 8. Fifteen players were included in all four mocks and 29 players were included in at least three mocks.
- Clemson QB Deshaun Watson was a top-12 pick in first three mocks. He was out of the first round in the fourth.
- Florida CB Teez Tabor was the only player in the top 15 of the first mock (No. 14) to be unlisted in all other mocks.
- Washington CB Kevin King went from unlisted on Feb. 8 to No. 11 on April 12.
- Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey went from unlisted on Feb. 8 to No. 14 in the three other mocks.
- Miami TE David Njoku is the only player to increase his draft position each round.
Here is a breakdown of the draft slots for all 37 players (listed in order of appearance:
| Player | Feb. 8 | March 15 | April 5 | April 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Garrett – DE (Texas A&M) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| D. Watson – QB (Clemson) | 2 | 12 | 7 | – |
| J. Allen – DT (Alabama) | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| J. Adams – S (LSU) | 4 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| C. Davis – WR (Western Michigan) | 5 | 10 | 9 | 7 |
| M. Lattimore – CB (Ohio State) | 6 | 6 | 10 | 5 |
| M. Hooker – S (Ohio State) | 7 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| L. Fournette – RB (LSU) | 8 | 8 | 4 | 8 |
| S. Thomas – DE (Stanford) | 9 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| M. Williams – WR (Clemson) | 10 | 18 | 18 | 16 |
| T. Charlton – DE (Michigan) | 11 | 28 | 28 | 31 |
| M. Trubisky – QB (North Carolina) | 12 | 25 | 13 | – |
| R. Foster – LB (Alabama) | 13 | 9 | 17 | 10 |
| T. Tabor – CB (Florida) | 14 | – | – | – |
| D. Cook – RB (Florida State) | 15 | 17 | 27 | 24 |
| M. McDowell – DT (Michigan State) | 16 | 26 | 23 | 26 |
| J. Peppers – S (Michigan) | 17 | – | 31 | – |
| S. Jones – CB (Washington) | 18 | – | – | – |
| O.J. Howard – TE (Alabama) | 19 | 4 | 12 | 12 |
| R. Ramczyk – OT (Wisconsin) | 20 | 23 | 25 | 25 |
| D. Barnett – DE (Tennessee) | 21 | 11 | 8 | 9 |
| D. Njoku – TE (Miami FL) | 22 | 19 | 18 | 13 |
| T. McKinley – LB (UCLA) | 23 | 30 | 21 | 21 |
| J. Davis – LB (Florida) | 24 | – | 24 | 23 |
| G. Bolles – OT (Utah) | 25 | 20 | 20 | 19 |
| C. Robinson – OT (Alabama) | 26 | 31 | 16 | 20 |
| T. White – CB (LSU) | 27 | 13 | – | 27 |
| T. Williams – LB (Alabama) | 28 | – | – | – |
| A. Kamara – RB (Tennessee) | 29 | 27 | – | – |
| C. Harris – LB (Missouri) | 30 | 21 | 29 | 29 |
| Q. Wilson – CB (Florida) | 31 | 32 | – | 28 |
| H. Reddick – DE (Temple) | 32 | 22 | 11 | 17 |
| C. McCaffrey – RB (Stanford) | – | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| K. King – CB (Washington) | – | 24 | 26 | 11 |
| P. Mahomes – QB (Texas Tech) | – | – | 32 | – |
| T.J. Watt – LB (Wisconsin) | – | – | – | 30 |
| A. Jackson – CB (USC) | – | – | – | 32 |
