The Chicago Bears finished 4-12 last season, though statistically one might never know.
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|OFF||356.5 (15)||248.1 (14)||108.4 (17)||37.8 %|
|DEF||346.8 (15)||224.9 (7)||121.9 (27)||40.5 %|
Even if we look at it on a per-play basis…
|OFF||5.9 (5)||7.4 (11)||4.6 (4)|
|DEF||5.48 (15)||11.2 (16)||4.4 (22)|
In addition, Chicago allowed just 28 sacks and tallied 37 of their own, good for No. 12 in the NFL. The team's red zone defense was top 10 in the league, too. So how in the world were the Bears the 3rd-worst team in the NFL in 2016?
Here ya go…
|PEN||T/O||Red Zone Off. (TD)||Toxic Differential|
|6.9 (21)||-20 (32)||51.02 % (23)||-18 (25)|
Not only did Chicago commit nearly seven penalties per game, but no team created fewer turnovers than the Bears in 2016 (11) and only two teams committed more turnovers. Furthermore, when in the Red Zone the Bears scored a TD just over 51 percent of the time.
Toxic Differential is the total difference in big plays and the difference in turnovers combined into one resulting number. A big play is a rushing play of 10 yards or more and a passing play of 25 yards or more.
The Bears' Big Play Differential isn't awful at plus-2, but that turnover ratio is killer.
For the record, the top teams in Toxic Differential in 2016 were the Dallas Cowboys (13-3 in 2016), New England Patriots (14-2, Super Bowl Champs), Tennessee Titans (9-7), Atlanta Falcons (11-5), NFC Champs) and Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5).
Only two teams in the Top 10 of Toxic Differential missed the playoffs in 2016: Tennessee and the Denver Broncos.
The Bears own the No. 3 overall pick in April's 2017 NFL Draft. They have needs at QB, DL and DB, perhaps more than anything else. Their QBs combined for 19 interceptions, 3rd-worst in the league, and 10 fumbles. Ball security was a significant issue at the quarterback position.
But let's leave this up to the Bears faithful.
Who should the Chicago Bears draft at No. 3?