The final full week of the 2024 FCS season is here. As Selection Sunday looms, there are a ton of games with FCS playoff implications.
Let’s predict some scores.
Predictions Record:
2024 Record: 94-27
2023 Record: 96-42
Week 13 Top 5 Games
No. 1 North Dakota State at No. 4 South Dakota
NDSU looks to secure a Top 2 playoff seed with a win, finishing 11-1 overall and 11-0 vs. the FCS with five currently-ranked wins. USD will enter the Top 4 seed discussion if it wins to finish 9-2 overall with one currently-ranked win. If the Coyotes lose, they would be 8-3 with only seven D1 wins and no currently-ranked wins. They would have to hope their “eye test” is valued more than other teams’ on-paper resumes to earn a first-round bye.
USD looks like a better and more complete team than last year, a squad that shocked the FCS and won 24-19 in Fargo last September. But NDSU’s 45-17 quarterfinal win at USD made some wonder if USD’s 10-3 record was fluky. The Yotes have shown it was not, and they are building off of it this fall.
USD is tough defensively, ranking No. 2 in FCS scoring defense (13.6 PPG). The offense can get it done in a multitude of ways, scoring 37.8 points per game. Aidan Bouman has thrown for nearly 2,000 yards, 12 touchdowns, and two interceptions. Charles Pierre Jr. (1,045 rushing yards, 15 TDs) and Travis Theis (780 yards, 11 TDs) are an elite RB combo.
Expect a sold-out crowd and an intense game as the implications are massive. And in a matchup of this magnitude, you trust NDSU a bit more to deliver. The Bison have the best FCS pass-rush, according to PFF. USD is 35th in pass protection, and Bouman isn’t too elusive in the pocket. NDSU’s ferocious d-line plus an offense led by Walter Payton Award frontrunner Cam Miller (2,166 yards passing, 22 TDs, 1 INT, 288 rushing yards, 6 TDs) will lead the Bison to a big road victory.
RELATED: FCS Bracketology
Prediction: NDSU 31-24
No. 9 Montana at No. 2 Montana State
The most intense rivalry in FCS football has had an interesting build-up. MSU is a 16.5-point favorite. And it seems many fans on both sides expect a Bobcat victory, partly due to it being in Bozeman, and partly due to how the teams have looked this fall.
But that could work in Montana’s favor.
The Grizzlies have nothing to lose and can go out there and play loose. Let the offense sling it around a bit, dial up some creative plays, don’t limit Eli Gillman’s touches, etc. And on defense, if the d-line and linebackers play the game of their life with a spirited effort and limit MSU’s No. 1 FCS rushing offense, they force Tommy Mellott to beat them with their arm. Which, he has shown the ability to do, throwing for 1,862 yards, 21 touchdowns, and one interception to go with his 590 yards and 10 scores on the ground. He is a Walter Payton Award contender for a reason. But if you’re Montana, you’d rather force MSU to put the game in Mellott’s hands than get avalanched by the rushing attack.
MSU’s offense is scoring 41.3 points per game and rushing for 316.6 yards per game, led by Scottre Humphrey’s 1,221 yards and 13 touchdowns. MSU’s defense has somewhat quietly been among the best in the FCS, allowing just 17.5 points per game to rank No. 7 in the FCS. They’ll have to defend some of the best weapons in the subdivision. And assuming Logan Fife has taken the reins at quarterback, the Montana offense has clicked the best with the Fresno State transfer behind center.
The home team has been the overwhelming favorite in recent years. MSU won 48-14 in 2019, Montana won 29-10 in 2021, MSU won 55-21 in 2022, and Montana won 37-7 last year.
The Cats are the better team on paper and look locked in to make a run to Frisco. Coupled with it being at home, MSU wins by at least three scores to earn a Top 2 playoff seed.
Prediction: Montana State 38-21
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Delaware at No. 15 Villanova
The Battle of the Blue has even more meaning on Saturday as Delaware leaves Villanova, the CAA, and the FCS next year to join the FBS.
Nova has owned the series lately, winning 16 of the last 18. After a 2023 quarterfinal run, the Wildcats look to punch their ticket to the bracket with another win over their rival to finish 9-3 overall and 9-2 vs. the FCS. If they lose, they’d still have a strong argument to make the field with eight D1 victories and a couple of currently-ranked wins.
Per usual, Nova owns a stout defense, ranking No. 9 in FCS scoring D (17.9 PPG). The strong LB duo of Shane Hartzell and Brendan Bell are both over 90 total tackles. They’ll have to contend with a Delaware offense that, despite battling through QB injuries yet again, has been rolling.
The 9-1 Blue Hens, who aren’t eligible for the playoffs as part of the FBS transition, are scoring 35.6 points per game, ranking No. 15 in the FCS. QB Nick Minicucci is coming off a 230-yard day with four touchdowns. The household name is Marcus Yarns, though, one of the most talented running backs in the FCS. In eight games, he has rushed for 744 yards and five scores.
Delaware’s defense has played complementary football, allowing 19.3 points per game, led by Gavin Moul’s 63 tackles and Ty Davis’ 40 stops, five TFLs, and two interceptions. On the flipside, Nova’s offense has been inconsistent this fall, scoring 23.3 points per game. There is talent on the outside, and veteran QB Connor Watkins leads the unit. He has thrown for just 1,619 yards, 10 touchdowns, and two interceptions.
Nova controlling this rivalry series and it being at home makes Nova the popular pick. The Wildcats will want to say adios to their rival in a proper way. But sometimes your gut is telling you something different. My CAA upset picks were 2-0 last week, predicting UNH to beat No. 16 Stony Brook and Monmouth to beat No. 9 Villanova. And while I wouldn’t consider Delaware beating Nova an upset, I do think the Blue Hens will surprise some and end their successful time in the FCS with a win.
RELATED: Delaware’s FCS Finale Is Last Chance To End Skid At Villanova
Prediction: Delaware 28-21
No. 3 South Dakota State at No. 18 (coaches poll) Missouri State
Missouri State looks to end its FCS era with a bang by beating national title contender SDSU. But the Bears’ 59-21 loss at NDSU last week doesn’t provide much confidence they can get it done vs. the Jackrabbits.
The two-time defending national champs are oh-so-close to still being undefeated vs. the FCS and holding onto their No. 1 ranking. As NDSU and Montana State have taken plenty of national attention, SDSU is still out there with as good a chance as anyone to be celebrating on the Frisco stage in January. The Jacks are playing much better ball offensively since that NDSU loss, and the defense has gone from elite to very elite with the return of All-American safety Tucker Large.
Style points will go a long way in this one for SDSU. There are scenarios where SDSU could get into the Top 2 playoff seeds if certain results happen. And beating up on a ranked opponent will leave a good impression on the playoff committee. SDSU would finish 10-2 overall and 9-1 vs. the FCS with three currently-ranked wins, including two Top 10 wins.
Mo State can score, led by quarterback Jacob Clark (3,418 yards, 26 TDs, 6 INT). The Bears are going up against arguably the best defense in the FCS, though. SDSU is No. 1 in scoring defense (12.7 PPG), No. 6 in rush defense (95.6 YPG), but No. 76 in pass defense (191.7 YPG). I think the Bears can get into the 20s, but the question is can the defense, which is allowing 28.8 PPG, stop an SDSU offense that has scored 41, 38, and 52 points in the last three games?
RELATED: Resumes For The Top 10 Ranked FCS Teams
Prediction: SDSU 45-24
Furman at No. 8 Mercer
This could be a sneaky game in the SoCon that shifts the Top 8 seeds around.
Furman, who is only 3-7, already knocked then-No. 21 ETSU out of the playoffs with a 24-21 win last week. Remember, this is an ETSU team that nearly (and should’ve) beaten NDSU earlier this year. Can the Paladins mess with the playoff picture again and defeat Mercer, who already has the SoCon auto-bid locked up?
The Bears are currently 9-2 overall and 9-1 vs. the FCS with four then-ranked wins and no currently-ranked wins. ETSU and Chattanooga getting beat last week didn’t do Mercer’s playoff resume any favors. If the Bears do win on Saturday, they’ll be in the conversation for a Top 5 or 6 playoff seed, depending on other results.
Mercer looks to be too complete of a team to let a loss happen at home. The offense has found another gear recently, led by Whitt Newbauer at QB and leaning on the legs of standout RB Dwayne McGee, who has nearly 1,000 yards and seven scores on the ground. The defense ranks No. 17 in FCS points allowed per game (19.8), while the rushing defense is No. 1 (66.9 YPG). Furman is averaging just 19.3 points per game. It just won’t have the firepower to keep up with Mercer in this one.
Prediction: Mercer 31-17
More FCS Predictions
Yale at No. 17 Harvard
Prediction: Harvard 28-24
Lafayette at Lehigh
Prediction: Lehigh 24-17
No. 12 SEMO at No. 25 (coaches poll) Tennessee State
Prediction: SEMO 28-24
No. 19 Duquesne at CCSU
Prediction: Duquense 27-21
Eastern Washington at No. 21 Northern Arizona
Prediction: EWU 38-35
William & Mary at No. 10 Richmond
Prediction: Richmond 28-24
Drake at Stetson
Prediction: Drake 31-14
North Dakota at No. 14 Illinois State
Prediction: Illinois State 34-21
Monmouth at No. 18 Stony Brook
Prediction: Monmouth 35-28
No. 6 UIW at East Texas A&M
Prediction: UIW 38-14
North Alabama at No. 25 Eastern Kentucky
Prediction: EKU 28-24
No. 11 Abilene Christian at Stephen F. Austin
Prediction: ACU 28-21
Central Arkansas at No. 16 Tarleton State
Prediction: Tarleton State 31-27
Western Carolina at Samford
Prediction: Samford 45-42
Utah Tech at Southern Utah
Prediction: Southern Utah 35-17
No. 5 UC Davis at Sacramento State
Prediction: UC Davis 38-21
No. 7 Idaho at Idaho State
Prediction: Idaho 42-24
