#6 seed UIW (11-2) travels to #3 seed South Dakota State (11-2) in the FCS quarterfinals.
SDSU is a 17.5-point favorite on BetMGM with the total points set at 54.5. Kickoff is 11 a.m. CT on Saturday, Dec. 14, and it’ll air on ESPN.
It’s a rematch from Week 2, where SDSU won 45-24. The game was tied 17-17 early in the third quarter, and SDSU led 31-24 early in the fourth before pulling away.
Here are some names and numbers to know, and a score prediction as well.
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When UIW Has The Ball…
One of the most explosive FCS offenses will go up against the best FCS defense.
UIW is No. 14 in FCS scoring offense (35.2 PPG) and No. 10 in passing offense (277.0 YPG). The Cardinals also rush for 173.0 yards per game, which is No. 35.
SDSU’s defense was historically good last year as the Jackrabbits won their second straight FCS title. This year’s unit may be just as good. SDSU has the No. 1 PFF-graded overall defense. It is also No. 1 in FCS scoring defense, allowing 12.8 PPG compared to 9.3 last season. The Jacks allow 89.3 rushing yards per game (No. 5 in the FCS), compared to 89.6 a year ago. SDSU gives up 186.2 passing yards per game, which is No. 28, but its coverage grade on PFF ranks No. 2.
Zach Calzada has enjoyed another terrific season as UIW’s starting quarterback. His 3,533 passing yards are No. 6 in the FCS, and his 34 touchdowns are No. 2. Calzada has thrown just eight interceptions in 477 passing attempts while completing 65% of his passes. He finished No. 4 in the Walter Payton Award voting.
His top two targets are both over 1,000 yards receiving. Jalen Walthall has 76 catches for 1,224 yards and 14 touchdowns. Roy Alexander has 87 receptions for 1,016 yards and 12 scores. Dekalon Taylor has added a nice balance, rushing for 909 yards and nine touchdowns in 11 games, but he hasn’t played since Nov. 16. His status is currently unknown for this week.
UIW has done a solid job protecting Calzada, allowing just 18 sacks. The 1.38 sacks allowed per game ranks No. 27. The unit is led by four All-Southland Conference selections: First Team Mason Williams (6’3″ 295 lbs), First Team Traveon Newsome (6’2″ 350 lbs), Second Team Nolan Hay (6’4″ 300 lbs), and Second Team Rasheed Jackson (6’7″ 320 lbs).
UIW’s 24 points in September were the most an FCS team has scored on SDSU this season. The Jacks allowed 10 or fewer points in the last four regular-season games. Last week’s second-round opponent, Montana, was held to three points until scoring touchdowns with 9:41 and 0:04 remaining.
Adam Bock continues to man the middle of SDSU’s defense. The linebacker looks to be in his top-tier form after battling injuries the last couple of years. Bock leads the team with 83 tackles, including eight TFLs, three sacks, four quarterback hurries, and two interceptions. Linebacker Caleb Francl was named a Buck Buchanan Award finalist, and he has 67 tackles, eight TFLs, and six pass breakups. Graham Spalding adds to the experienced linebacking group with 58 tackles and six TFLs.
The d-line depth is impressive with no noticeable dropoff in the rotations. But a couple of guys have flashed more than others, making more disruptive plays compared to a year ago. DT Jarod DePriest earned First Team All-MVFC honors with 29 tackles, 5.5 TFLs, and two sacks. Kobe Clayborne was named Honorable Mention and has 28 tackles, 3.5 TFLs, and 2.5 sacks. And Bryce Hawthorne was recently named a Freshman All-American, tallying 21 tackles, 5.5 TFLs, and 4.5 sacks.
The secondary will be tested by a UIW passing attack that isn’t afraid to take deep shots. SDSU’s entire secondary, though, are All-Conference performers.
First Team safety Tucker Large has 22 tackles, three interceptions, and four pass breakups in nine games. Fellow starting safety Matthew Durrance was named an Honorable Mention, totaling 55 tackles, two interceptions, and four pass breakups. First Team cornerback Dalys Beanum has 39 tackles, one interception, and three pass breakups. On the opposite side, CB Colby Humphrey was named to the Second Team as he has tallied 30 tackles, one interception, and three pass breakups.
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When SDSU Has The Ball…
SDSU’s offense has heated up down the stretch. After scoring nine points at NDSU and needing overtime to hit 20 points vs. USD, the Jacks have scored 52, 38, 41, 45, and 35 points.
Mark Gronowski looks to finish his SDSU career as one of, if not the most accomplished quarterback in FCS history. The two-time national championship game Most Outstanding Player has 48 career wins, one shy of tying the all-time FCS record for a starting quarterback. This season, Gronowski is completing 62.5% of his passes for 2,341 yards, 19 touchdowns, and six interceptions, plus 313 rushing yards and seven scores.
His protection has been phenomenal. SDSU has allowed just seven sacks, ranking No. 1 in the FCS with 0.54 sacks allowed per game. Gus Miller (6’3″ 295 lbs) and Evan Beerntsen (6’4″ 300 lbs) lead the unit as First Team All-MVFC selections.
The o-line has also plowed the way for the No. 3 FCS rushing offense, averaging 241.5 yards per game. Amar Johnson has rushed 160 times for 1,013 yards and 13 touchdowns. Angel Johnson has stepped into the important RB2 role in SDSU’s offense, rushing 91 times for 646 yards and three scores, averaging 7.1 yards per carry. Kirby Vorhees and backup QB Chase Mason are also threats out of the backfield. Vorhees is averaging 7.4 yards per carry with 521 rushing yards and seven TDs. Mason is averaging 10.5 YPC, totaling 418 rushing yards and six scores.
Gronowski’s favorite target has been wide receiver Griffin Wilde, who has 63 catches for 1,014 yards and 10 touchdowns. WR Grahm Goering is second on the team with 24 catches for 346 yards and four touchdowns, but he hasn’t played since early November.
With its high-flying offense, UIW’s defense has perhaps been underappreciated this fall.
The Cardinals allow 21.3 points per game (No. 22 in the FCS), 123.3 rushing yards per game (No. 26), and 213.4 passing YPG (No. 57). On PFF, they ranked No. 20 in run defense, No. 17 in tackling, No. 19 in pass rush, and No. 24 in coverage.
Safety Mason Chambers leads UIW with 81 tackles, including three interceptions and seven pass breakups. Linebacker Dune Smith, despite missing two games, isn’t far behind with 76 stops, including 11.5 TFLs, six sacks, and an interception. LB Mister Williams adds 75 tackles, and safety Darius Sanders has 73 stops and three interceptions.
On the d-line, Declan Williams has been a terror with 60 tackles, 11 TFLs, 3.5 sacks, and five pass breakups. Devin Grant has been disruptive as well, tallying 29 tackles, 11 TFLs, 8.5 sacks, and four QB hurries.
Special Teams
UIW kicker Brack Peacock has hit 15/18 field goals with a long of 41. Mason Pierce is one of the better punt returners in the FCS, averaging 24.5 yards per return (15 returns for 367 yards).
SDSU’s Hunter Dustman has made 12/18 field goals with a long of 48. Angel Johnson has returned 14 kicks for 307 yards (21.9 yards per return) and one touchdown. Dalys Beanum has 12 punt returns for 138 yards (11.5 yards per return) and one touchdown.
Predictions Record:
2024 Record: 122-37
2023 Record: 96-42
UIW-SDSU Prediction
UIW gave SDSU a legit scare earlier this year, pulling within a touchdown early in the fourth quarter before the Jackrabbits extended its lead again for a 45-24 win.
Saturday’s weather looks to be decent in Brookings, relatively speaking, with a high of 34 degrees and sunny. You’ll take that in mid-December. Although the game kicks at 11 a.m., so it’ll be chilly. We’ll see if UIW handles the cold elements better than the rainy elements last week.
It is hard to beat a team twice. But, perhaps the familiarity with UIW and the competitive September game helps SDSU. Or else it’d be easier to overlook an opponent and have your mind on a potential (and likely) semifinal trip to Fargo.
The Jacks will be locked in. And they have been locked in for the last month and change. Alongside Montana State, SDSU looks like the most complete team in the FCS right now. There’s a reason they share the same odds to win the national title, slightly ahead of NDSU. SDSU is humming on offense after a choppy start — o-line has dominated, running backs are loaded, and Gronowski looks like his 2023 Walter Payton Award self. And SDSU’s defense, as mentioned above, is playing at around the same level as last year’s historic unit.
It’s hard to see how UIW wins this game without SDSU doing multiple self-inflicted things (penalties, turnovers, blown coverages, etc.). I expect a clean performance by the Jacks and a three-score lead by the game’s end.
Prediction: SDSU 38-17
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