Last week we listed a few things on how the Missouri Valley Football Conference is as wild as ever this season. Illinois State added another reason, handling previously undefeated South Dakota after two head-scratching blowout losses.
Then you have Youngstown State going from looking like a Top 5 team to now fighting for a playoff berth. And suddenly Northern Iowa is the hottest team in the conference.
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It'll be fun to see what the lead paragraph in this article series says next week. But until then, here's what to watch for Saturday:
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Does South Dakota State get its first quality win?
The Jackrabbits are 5-2, yet aren’t meeting expectations at 2-2 in conference play. The defending MVFC co-champs might already be out of the picture to repeat. But now it’s time to start building up the playoff resume. So far, their most impressive win is at Montana State, a 3-4 team out of the Big Sky. In its games against ranked opponents (YSU and UNI), SDSU’s offense has gotten shut down.
This week it’s Western Illinois. Then it’s North Dakota State, Illinois State and USD. If the Jackrabbits still believe they have a team to compete for a national title, they need to start showing it against quality opponents. [divider]
Will Illinois State eliminate YSU from the playoffs?
While there is a chance a 6-5 YSU team makes the playoffs, the Penguins don’t want to leave it up to the playoff committee to decide. Especially when six other Valley teams realistically still have a shot at the playoffs. YSU is 3-4 and on the bubble. Three of those losses came within a touchdown to FBS Pittsburgh and Top 10 teams of USD and NDSU.
It’s last week’s loss at UNI that set the Penguins back. Now they need to win out, and this week is key. Illinois State just handed USD its first loss. If YSU can get a win this week, it should finish 7-4 with the last three games against teams at the bottom of the conference standings. [divider]
Can NDSU’s run game be productive against UNI?
Lance Dunn, who leads the FCS with 12 rushing touchdowns, is doubtful this week with a hip injury. That leaves the Bison with one healthy running back (Bruce Anderson) and one returning from injury (Ty Brooks). Anderson, quite honestly, is just as talented and explosive as Dunn. He’s just never been in a role of featured back.
Now he is, and the question is can he produce against an always tough UNI defense? Games between NDSU and UNI are always physical and tight with both teams gutting it out in the fourth quarter. If the Bison can’t get anything going on the ground, their chances of winning are slim even with Easton Stick playing at a high level. [divider]
Does USD’s defense step up?
USD’s defense has improved a ton since last season. There’s no questioning that. The question now is if the defense is good enough for this team to be a legit contender in the FCS. In the three close wins this season, the defense gave up 27, 33 and 28 points. But the Coyotes were off to a 6-0 start. Then last week, the defense allowed 37 points in a 16-point loss at Illinois State.
USD is going to be a force in the playoffs offensively. But as we’ve seen, the recipe for success isn’t allowing a ton of points and having your quarterback throw the ball 63 times, which is what happened against the Redbirds. The Coyotes host Southern Illinois this week. It’s a very winnable game. SIU is known to put up points, scoring 42 and 45 in the last couple weeks. This is a game USD should win 45-14 instead of 45-28 to give its defense a boost in confidence. [divider]
How does this week affect the playoff picture?
Right now, NDSU, USD, ISU, UNI, SDSU, WIU and YSU still have playoff hopes alive. You can throw SIU in there as well at 4-3, but it’s tough seeing the Salukis winning three more games on their schedule. The SDSU at WIU game is huge with both teams at 5-2. A Leathernecks win puts them in great position to earn a seed. A Jackrabbit loss gives them three losses with games against NDSU, ISUr and USD remaining.
YSU is playing for its playoff lives and a Redbirds win against the Penguins would give them back-to-back ranked wins heading into the final three games against WIU, SDSU and NDSU. ISU needs to go 2-2 in these last four ranked games to make the playoffs.
Once 2-3, UNI has two consecutive ranked wins to get out of playoff mode. A huge win against the Bison would almost lock in a playoff spot, as next week’s game against USD is tough, but the final two against Missouri State and Indiana State should be wins.
