The top two teams in the Mountain West will clash today at one of the conference’s most daunting venues. New Mexico (21-4, 13-1 MWC) hosts Utah State (22-3, 12-2) in a game that will go a long way toward deciding the Mountain West’s regular-season champion and the top seed in the conference tournament, which begins on March 12.
The Lobos dominated their first game against the Aggies this season. They went into Logan, Utah, and scored 52 points in the second half of an 82-63 win against a team that has lost just two games at home this season.
Sunday’s game in Albuquerque, New Mexico, will feature the Mountain West’s top two offenses. New Mexico leads the league with 83.2 points a night, and Utah State ranks No. 2 with 81.8 points a game.
The contest also features the Mountain West’s top scorer, New Mexico point guard Donovan Dent, who is putting up 19.6 points a game. Utah State is led by guard Ian Martinez, who is averaging 16.9 points a night.
New Mexico has a distinct advantage on its home court at The Pit, which seats more than 15,000 fans. The Lobos are 13-1 at home this season, and they went 13-3 at home last season. Utah State has been stout on the road this season, though. The Aggies are 7-1 away from the friendly confines of the Dee Glen Smith Spectrum.
Utah State at New Mexico Odds
New Mexico is a 4.5-point college basketball betting odds favorite on BetMGM, and the Over/Under is 159.5 points.
The Moneyline is at -210 for the Lobos and at +170 for the Aggies.
The Lobos are 10-10 against the spread in their past 20 regular-season games as the favorite at home, according to oddsshark.com. Utah State is 5-14-1 ATS in its last 20 regular-season games as an underdog on the road.
Utah State at New Mexico on TV
The Mountain West game featuring Utah State and New Mexico will be televised on CBS Sports Network.
Tip-off is scheduled for 4 p.m. ET.
Utah State at New Mexico Prediction
I predict New Mexico wins, 81-76.
The Lobos are hard to beat when Dent is slashing to the rim and making fade-away jumpers look easy while Nelly Junior Joseph is controlling the boards.
New Mexico leads the Mountain West with 40.6 rebounds a game, which also ranks No. 10 in the country. Joseph is one of two players in the conference that is averaging a double-double. He’s putting up 13.6 and a league-leading 10.9 rebounds a game, and Colorado State’s Nique Clifford is averaging 17.9 points and 10.1 rebounds a night.
New Mexico outrebounded Utah State, 48-33, the last time they played. The Lobos have posted at least 50 rebounds in a game three times this season: 54 against Fresno State on Jan. 20, 51 against Wyoming on Jan. 7, and 50 in the season opener against Nicholls.
Utah State can shoot the lights out on any given night. They lead the Mountain West with a .498 team field goal percentage. The question is, can they compete with New Mexico under the basket?
Dent’s speed and offensive efficiency make him one of the top point guards in the country. He also ranks No. 2 in the Mountain West and No. 10 in the country with 162 assists. He makes the Lobos hard to beat on his own, but their ability to absolutely dominate the boards may be what takes them beyond a conference title to a run in the NCAA Tournament.
