The second half of the 2025 campaign didn’t fare well for New Mexico State. The Aggies lost six of their final seven games, and the only win was a three-point victory over UTEP. That was one of six one-possession games NMSU played in last year, where it went 2-4.
Now in his third season leading the program, head coach Tony Sanchez will aim to secure his first winning season with the Aggies. They’ve gone a combined 7-17 in his first two years, winning three games in 2024 and four last year. Sanchez could be on the hot seat this fall, especially if the Aggies have another down year, but getting to a bowl game isn’t out of the question.
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New Mexico State Season Preview
NMSU finished last year as the second-lowest scoring team in Conference USA at 21.6 points per game. The Aggies were also tied for the most turnovers committed in the conference with 24. Avoiding those mistakes and taking advantage of key opportunities will be crucial this year.
New Mexico State Must Sharpen Up Offensively
I don’t think Heisman finalist and former Aggie QB Diego Pavia will be back playing in Las Cruces any time soon, meaning whoever this year’s signal-caller is will need to help NMSU’s offense find a rhythm. It looks likely that Trey Hedden will be the starter.
Hedden spent the past two seasons in the FCS with Furman where he passed for a total of 4,734 yards, 30 TDs, and 22 interceptions. The junior started 20 games over two years. It appears he will be competing with JUCO transfer Kalani McLeod for the starting job.
A strong running game will also bring a ton of value to the offense, and James Jones looks to fit that bill. A senior transfer from Delaware State, Jones rushed for 958 yards and nine touchdowns on 98 carries. His 9.8 yards per carry was a conference-high while his nine scores were tied for the most.
While it’ll be a new look backfield for the Aggies, the wideout room will return a few familiar faces, including an electric playmaker in TK King. The senior missed four games and totaled 588 yards and three TDs on 41 receptions last year, but his 73.5 receiving YPG led the league. He’s also a threat in the return department. Stanford transfer Myles Libman is another WR who could make a splash for NMSU this year.
New Mexico State Has Foundation For Strong Defense
Two of last season’s top three tacklers return with senior linebackers Tory Gethers and Sone Aupiu. Gethers finished with 87 total tackles, three sacks, and 5.5 tackles for loss last year while Aupiu registered 68 tackles, four pass breakups, and one sack.
After spending one year in Cincinnati, Tayden Barnes returns at the nickleback spot and should add an immediate impact. Barnes started 12 games for NMSU in 2024 and had 57 tackles, six PBUs, and two picks.
Fifth-year senior Gabe Peterson returns at the JACK position and is a veteran for the defensive front. He had a solid first two seasons at NMSU before transferring to Utah State and returning prior to last year. He should be in line for a disruptive campaign.
Also returning is defensive end Bradley Vislisel Jr., who started five games in 2025 and logged 21 tackles and 2.5 TFLs.
In the secondary, Bernock Iya is expected to be one of the leaders of this group after making the position switch from nickel to strong safety. The redshirt senior started six games in 2025 and finished with 53 tackles, three TFLs, and seven total passes defended. Nick Session transfers in after three seasons at Oklahoma State and could be a key addition.
Junior cornerback Josiah Charles made 12 starts last season and had five PBUs and one interception.
2026 New Mexico State Schedule
| Date | Opponent |
| 8/29 | at Florida State |
| 9/5 | vs. Mercyhurst |
| 9/12 | at Hawaii |
| 9/26 | vs. New Mexico |
| 10/1 | vs. Western Kentucky |
| 10/7 | at FIU |
| 10/21 | at Sam Houston |
| 10/28 | vs. Jacksonville State |
| 11/7 | vs. Liberty |
| 11/14 | at Missouri State |
| 11/21 | vs. Delaware |
| 11/28 | at Middle Tennessee |
New Mexico State’s CUSA Championship Betting Odds
NMSU is currently listed at +2500 to win CUSA. The Aggies have the third-longest odds.
New Mexico State’s Betting Odds & Over/Under Win Total
- NMSU’s win total Over/Under is at 4.5
- The Over is at -105
- The Under is at -125
New Mexico State’s Season Prediction
I don’t predict New Mexico State will win a CUSA title and I don’t anticipate the Aggies to go Over 4.5 wins.
Their non-conference slate is brutal with trips to Florida State and Hawaii, as well as playing a good New Mexico team. If they’re able to win two of these contests, it could set them up well for the rest of the season. And although they will host most of CUSA’s top teams, league play also won’t be a breeze.
In seven seasons as a college head coach, Sanchez has only eclipsed four wins once, making it hard for me to trust the Aggies will reach that mark in 2026.
