Northern Iowa overcame its midseason struggles to run the table in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament and win four games in four days as the sixth seed.
The Panthers (23-12) finally got fully healthy, and look to be playing their best basketball of the season at the right time. Now in his 20th season leading the program, this is coach Ben Jacobson’s fifth time taking UNI to the NCAA Tournament. He has advanced to the second round twice and the Sweet 16 once.
Many believe St. John’s is underseeded. The Red Storm have only lost one game since Jan. 6 and have won some marquee games during that span, including a Big East tournament title where they beat UConn by 20.
The Johnnies are in their third season under Rick Pitino and were knocked out in the second round of last year’s tourney after falling to John Calipari and Arkansas.
St. John’s vs. Northern Iowa Odds
As of this writing, St. John’s is a 9.5-point college basketball betting odds favorite on BetMGM against Northern Iowa, while the Over/Under is 131.5 points.
The Moneyline for SJU is -535 and +400 for UNI.
St. John’s vs. Northern Iowa On TV
The matchup between Northern Iowa and St. John’s will be televised on CBS.
Friday’s game is scheduled to tip off at 7:10 p.m. ET.
St. John’s vs. Northern Iowa Prediction
I predict Northern Iowa covers the 9.5-point spread. I also predict this game goes under 131.5 points.
These are two of the top defenses in the country. Per KenPom, both teams rank in the top 30 in adjusted defensive efficiency and defensive effective field-goal percentage. They play a little differently stylistically, though.
UNI prefers to immediately get back on defense and hardly prioritizes offensive rebounds. The Panthers like to play slow and run through their offense. Their adjusted tempo (possessions per 40 minutes) is 62.3, which is the fourth-slowest in college basketball.
It’ll be paramount that they’re crisp in their offense to generate good looks or get some opportunities in transition because it’ll be tough to score on SJU’s defense, especially with no second-chance opportunities.
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The Panthers struggled offensively this year when 6-foot-6 senior Tristan Smith was injured, but have been a lot more efficient since his return. Smith is a playmaker in the middle of the floor and creates a ton of offense, even if he’s not rewarded with an assist or basket. He’s also their leading rebounder at 5.1 boards per game.
Six-foot-4 senior Trey Campbell paces the Panthers with 13.7 points and 3.9 assists per game, while the lithe Leon Bond III scores 11.9 PPG. UNI is averaging 69.9 PPG.
Led by Big East Player of the Year and Defensive POY Zuby Ejiofor, the Red Storm are on the attack much more often than UNI. They get to the rim about as well as anybody in the country, and most of their production comes in the paint or at the free-throw line.
I don’t know if the Panthers have anybody who can guard Ejiofor, so I expect them to double-team him early and often. The 6-foot-9, 245-pound senior is an excellent passer, though, and should have no problems finding teammates for open shots. His 16.5 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 3.5 assists are all team-highs.
Bryce Hopkins is averaging 13.5 points and 6.9 rebounds for the Johnnies, who are averaging 81.6 PPG.
If UNI wants a chance to win, it’ll also need to be strong on the boards against an SJU team that averages 13 offensive rebounds per game. The Panthers allow an o-board on 26.3% of chances, which ranks 23rd in the country.
Because of its defense and its ability to play the game at its own pace, I think UNI can keep this game within reach. Ultimately, though, I think the Red Storm pulls away because of their ability to attack the rim and attack the glass.
