History is not on the side of Lincoln Riley.
The 33-year-old Riley — the youngest coach in the FBS — was named Oklahoma head coach following Bob Stoops' abrupt retirement earlier this month. He's replacing a man who averaged nearly 11 victories over 18 seasons, won 10 conference titles and one national championship.
“To coach and his family — shoot,” an emotional Riley said during his introductory press conference, before pausing for more than 30 seconds. “He gave me a chance a few years ago that I’ll never forget. His guidance has been incredible, and to be the guy to take over for him is an incredible honor. So thank you.”
Clearly Riley knows the gravity of the situation. He's stepping into the shoes of a legend. And waiting for him on the other side will either be Ron Prince and Ron Zook or Jimbo Fisher and Urban Meyer. The former pair stumbled through a combined six seasons, failing to replicate the success of Bill Snyder and Steve Spurrier. The latter pair are first-ballot Hall of Famers who have somehow managed to outdo Bobby Bowden and Jim Tressel.
The Fisher-Meyer duo might be more powerful, but Zook and Prince have more friends. A lot more friends, ones that also failed to replace legends.
Here are the top 16 college football coaches who have departed their programs in the last 25 years, along with their replacement:
Coach | Team | Years | Replacement | Years |
---|---|---|---|---|
Lou Holtz | Notre Dame | 1986-96 | Bob Davie | 1997-2001 |
Tom Osborne | Nebraska | 1973-97 | Frank Solich | 1998-2003 |
LaVell Edwards | BYU | 1972-2000 | Gary Crowton | 2001-04 |
Steve Spurrier | Florida | 1990-2001 | Ron Zook | 2002-04 |
Bill Snyder* | Kansas State | 1989-2005 | Ron Prince | 2006-08 |
Barry Alvarez | Wisconsin | 1990-2005 | Bret Bielema | 2006-11 |
Lloyd Carr | Michigan | 1995-2007 | R-ich Rodriguez | 2008-10 |
Philip Fulmer | Tennessee | 1993-2008 | Lane Kiffin | 2009 |
Bobby Bowden | Florida State | 1976-2009 | Jimbo Fisher | 2010-present |
Pete Carroll | USC | 2001-09 | Lane Kiffin | 2010 |
Urban Meyer | Florida | 2005-10 | Will Muschamp | 2011-14 |
Jim Tressel** | Ohio State | 2001-10 | Urban Meyer | 2012-present |
Joe Paterno | Penn State | 1966-2011 | Bill O'Brien | 2012-13 |
Mack Brown | Texas | 1998-2013 | Charlie Strong | 2014-16 |
Chris Petersen | Boise State | 2006-13 | Bryan Harsin | 2014-present |
Frank Beamer | Virginia Tech | 1987-2015 | Justin Fuente | 2016-present |
*BIll Snyder retired in 2005 before returning in 2009.
**Luke Fickell was interim head coach for the 2011 season following Tressel's resignation.
Of those 16 replacements, only four are still head coach. Nine were fired (all within six years) and three voluntarily left for other jobs — though one of those, Lane Kiffin at Tennessee, was eventually fired at the other job (USC).
Four replacements had or have a higher winning percentage than their predecessors. Bret Bielema is the only one of the four to voluntarily the leave. The other three — Justin Fuente, Urban Meyer and Jimbo Fisher — are still with their programs. Those four are also the only replacements with a higher frequency of 10-win seasons. For example, Bobby Bowden had 18 years with at least 10 wins in 34 seasons, or 1.9 years. Fisher has six such seasons in seven years, or one every 1.2 years.
Here's a breakdown of each coaching change and how the replacements have fared in replacing coaching legends.
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Notre Dame — Lou Holtz to Bob Davie
It didn't take Lou Holtz long to eradicate the stench of Gerry Faust's five-year run at Notre Dame. After Faust averaged 5.6 wins from 1981-85 (28-26-1), Holtz averaged 9.1 wins over 11 years (100-30-2), had five 10-win seasons in six years and delivered the program's first title since 1977.
He resigned in 1996 and was replaced by defensive coordinator Bob Davie, who crawled through five seasons.
Coach | Total Seasons | Win. Pct. | 10-Win Seasons | Conf. Titles | National Titles |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lou Holtz | 11 | .765 | 5 | N/A | 1 |
Bob Davie | 5 | .583 | 0 | N/A | 0 |
Holtz averaged fewer losses and more wins and had more 10-win seasons and national titles than Davie. He won at least 10 games every 2.2 years.
Coach | Avg. Wins | Avg. Losses | 10-Win Frequency | Conf. Title Frequency | National Title Frequency |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lou Holtz | 9.1 | 2.7 | 2.2 years | N/A | 11.0 years |
Bob Davie | 7.0 | 5.0 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
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Nebraska — Tom Osborne to Frank Solich
No one was going to replace Tom Osborne. At best, someone may hold the same title and try to replicate even a fraction of the success he had in 25 years. That man was longtime Osborne assistant Frank Solich, who took over in 1998.
Despite a 58-19 mark — including 33-5 between 1999-2001 — Solich was fired after the 2003 regular-season finale.
Coach | Total Seasons | Win Pct. | 10-Win Seasons | Conference Titles | National Titles |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tom Osborne | 25 | .836 | 15 | 13 | 3 |
Frank Solich | 6 | .753 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Solich captured just one conference title and didn't win a national championship in his six seasons. He did, however, average 9.7 wins and had a 10-win season every two years.
Coach | Avg. Wins | Avg. Losses | 10-Win Frequency | Conference Title Frequency | National Title Frequency |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tom Osborne | 10.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 years | 1.9 years | 8.3 years |
Frank Solich | 9.7 | 3.2 | 2.0 years | 6.0 years | N/A |
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BYU — LaVell Edwards to Gary Crowton
One of the most underrated coaches in sports history, LaVell Edwards transformed BYU from a little-known WAC program into a national power. An assistant under Tommy Hudspeth from 1962-71, he took over in 1972 and won 19 conference titles and one national championship in 29 years.
Chicago Bears offensive coordinator Gary Crowton replaced him in 2001, and following a 12-2 mark in 2001, struggled mightily. He went just 14-21 in the next three seasons, never finishing above third in the conference.
Coach | Total Seasons | Win Pct. | 10-Win Seasons | Conference Titles | National Titles |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
LaVell Edwards | 29 | .716 | 10 | 19 | 1 |
Gary Crowton | 4 | .531 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Edwards averaged nearly nine wins and won at least 10 games every 2.9 years. He also won a conference title every 1.5 years.
Coach | Avg. Wins | Avg. Losses | 10-Win Frequency | Conference Title Frequency | National Title Frequency |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
LaVell Edwards | 8.9 | 3.5 | 2.9 years | 1.5 years | 29.0 years |
Gary Crowton | 6.5 | 5.8 | 4.0 years | 4.0 years | N/A |
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Florida — Steve Spurrier to Ron Zook
Steve Spurrier quickly returned the Gators to national relevance after they went 26-21 the previous four seasons. The 1966 Heisman winner dominated in 12 seasons at his alma mater, winning six conference titles and the 1996 national championship.
He left for the Washington Redskins in 2002 and the Gators tapped New Orleans Saints defensive coordinator Ron Zook as his replacement. That was a bad idea.
Coach | Total Seasons | Win Pct. | 10-Win Seasons | Conference Titles | National Titles |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Steve Spurrier | 12 | .817 | 9 | 6 | 1 |
Ron Zook | 3 | .622 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Zook didn't have any utterly disastrous seasons — winning at least seven games each year — but he never topped eight wins, went just 4-4 in the SEC in 2004 and never sniffed a national title.
Coach | Avg. Wins | Avg. Losses | 10-Win Frequency | Conference Title Frequency | National Title Frequency |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Steve Spurrier | 10.2 | 2.3 | 1.3 years | 2.0 years | 12.0 years |
Ron Zook | 7.7 | 4.7 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
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Kansas State — Bill Snyder to Ron Prince
Kansas State won 29 total games between 1976-1988 and were coming off back-to-back winless seasons when Bill Snyder took the worst job in college football in 1989. Not only did Snyder make the Wildcats competitive, he won at least 10 games seven times and captured two conference titles. When he retired (for the first time) in 2005, Virginia offensive coordinator Ron Prince was hired.
There's a reason many fans don't know who Ron Prince is.
Coach | Total Seasons | Win Pct. | 10-Win Seasons | Conference Titles | National Titles |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bill Snyder | 17 | .649 | 7 | 2 | 0 |
Ron Prince | 3 | .459 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Despite a 1-10 mark in 1989, Snyder still averaged 7.4 wins over 17 seasons, while Prince never won more than seven games in a season, going 17-20 in three years.
Coach | Avg. Wins | Avg. Losses | 10-Win Frequency | Conference Title Frequency | National Title Frequency |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bill Snyder | 7.4 | 4.0 | 2.4 years | 8.5 years | N/A |
Ron Prince | 5.7 | 6.7 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
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Wisconsin — Barry Alvarez to Bret Bielema
Wisconsin football sucked when Notre Dame defensive coordinator Barry Alvarez was hired as head coach in 1990. And that's being kind.
After the Badgers went 9-36 between 1986-89, Alvarez powered through a one-win season in 1990 before returning the Badgers to respectability. He left in 2005 after 119 wins, four 10-win seasons and three Big Ten titles.
Alvarez's replacement, Bret Bielema accomplished the latter two feats in just seven seasons while winning nearly 74 percent of his games.
Coach | Total Seasons | Win Pct. | 10-Win Seasons | Conference Titles | National Titles |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Barry Alvarez | 16 | .615 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
Bret Bielema | 7 | .739 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
Though Bielema did leave abruptly in 2012, his success in Madison is undeniable. He averaged 9.7 wins and won a Big Ten title every 2.3 years.
Coach | Avg. Wins | Avg. Losses | 10-Win Frequency | Conference Title Frequency | National Title Frequency |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Barry Alvarez | 7.4 | 4.6 | 4.0 years | 5.3 years | N/A |
Bret Bielema | 9.7 | 3.4 | 1.8 years | 2.3 years | N/A |
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Michigan — Lloyd Carr to Rich Rodriguez
Longtime Michigan assistant Lloyd Carr — under Bo Schembechler (1980-89) and Gary Moeller (1990-1994), was finally given his first head coaching shot in 1995. Just three years later, he won the program's first national championship in 49 years.
In all, Carr went 122-40 in 13 seasons, a winning clip of .753. His replacement, West Virginia head coach Rich Rodriguez, had a clip of .405 in three seasons before getting canned.
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