It’s hard to comprehend how quickly the outlook of Boise State’s 2023 season changed.
With preseason hopes of making a New Year’s Six bowl, the Broncos went 1-3 in non-conference play. They later lost to Colorado State after having a 20-point lead with just over six minutes to go.
And then head coach Andy Avalos was fired, and previous defensive coordinator Spencer Danielson replaced him as interim coach. But that was a key part in the program’s turnaround, as Boise State won its next two contests for the right to play in the Mountain West Championship. There, the Broncos toppled UNLV to take the conference crown before falling to UCLA in the LA Bowl.
In part because of that late-season surge, Danielson was named the team’s head coach for the long term. And going into 2024, Boise State is the favorite to win the Mountain West yet again.
Boise State Football’s Mountain West Title Odds
Boise State’s odds to win the Mountain West are -125, via BetMGM. The Broncos and Liberty (Conference USA) are the only Group of Five teams with minus odds to win a conference title.
Boise State Football’s Betting Odds & Over/Under Win Total
Boise State’s win total Over/Under is 9.5, with Under 9.5 at -135 and Over 9.5 at +110.
Boise State Football’s 2024 Schedule
8/31 @ Georgia Southern
9/7 @ Oregon
9/21 vs. Portland State
9/28 vs. Washington State
10/5 vs. Utah State
10/12 @ Hawaii
10/26 @ UNLV
11/2 vs. San Diego State
11/9 vs. Nevada
11/16 @ San Jose State
11/23 @ Wyoming
11/30 vs. Oregon State
Bold indicates Mountain West contests
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Key Boise State Football Returners
2023 All-Mountain West 1st Team
RB Ashton Jeanty
DL Ahmed Hassanein
P James Ferguson-Reynolds
2nd Team
OL Kage Casey
K Jonah Dalmas
LB Andrew Simpson
Honorable Mention
CB A’Marion McCoy
LB Marco Notarainni
DB Seyi Oladipo
DB Alexander Teubner
Boise State Football Poised For A Run At The College Football Playoff
Among Group of Five teams, Boise State’s betting odds to make the College Football Playoff are first at +400. And that’s for good reason.
The Broncos have 10 all-conference selections returning. They have proven standout players on offense, defense, and special teams.
It starts with running back Ashton Jeanty. The Group of Five Offensive Player of the Year led the country with 159.67 yards from scrimmage per game and was fifth with 19 total touchdowns. He ran for 1,347 yards and 14 touchdowns while averaging 6.1 yards per carry and caught 43 passes for 569 yards and five scores.
Wide receiver Latrell Caples is back after missing the 2023 season due to injury. He led the Broncos with 549 yards on 51 catches while scoring four touchdowns in 2022. Kage Casey will return to help lead the offensive line after making the all-conference second team last year.
Maddux Madsen beat transfer Malachi Nelson in a fall camp battle for the starting quarterback job. Madsen played in nine games and started one a season ago, throwing for 1,191 yards, nine touchdowns, and three interceptions on a 61% completion rate as a freshman. Nelson, a former five-star recruit, transferred to Boise State after redshirting at USC in 2023.
Boise State was top three in the Mountain West last season for scoring offense (31.1 points per game) and total offense (436.1 yards per game). But the Broncos were also top five in the league for scoring defense (25.6 points per game allowed) and total defense (385.1 yards per game allowed). And they may be even better defensively in 2024.
G5 first-team All-American Ahmed Hassanein is back after ranking sixth in the country with 12.5 sacks and 19th with 16.5 tackles for loss to go with 53 total tackles. In fact, six of Boise State’s top seven tacklers from last season are back.
All-conference honorable mention safeties Alexander Teubner and Seyi Oladipo ranked first and second on the team in tackles, respectively. Teubner led the team with 85 tackles while chalking up five pass breakups and 2.5 tackles for loss. Oladipo added 70 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss, and four pass breakups.
Andrew Simpson was a second-team all-conference linebacker after recording 66 tackles, 16 for loss, as well as 6.5 sacks. Marco Notarainni made the all-conference honorable mention list after racking up 53 tackles, 4.5 TFLs, and three sacks in nine games. Cornerback A’Marion McCoy also earned All-Mountain West honorable mention accolades after recording 31 tackles and five pass breakups.
Kicker Jonah Dalmas and punter James Ferguson-Reynolds are also excellent at their respective positions and are back after all-conference seasons in 2023.
2024 Boise State Football Season Prediction
I predict Boise State will make the College Football Playoff as the Broncos will go Over 9.5 wins and will win the Mountain West.
I only see one clear loss for Boise State during the regular season, and that’s at Oregon on Sept. 7. But other than that, the Broncos might be capable of going 11-1 going into postseason play.
I don’t know if they will, and I expect three losses will be too many if they want to make the CFP. The key points in the season will be Boise State’s games against Oregon State and Washington State at home.
Granted, those are still “power” teams in my book so wins against them would go a long way toward being the G5 squad selected to compete for the national championship. And it’s absolutely possible the Broncos defeat both of them.
Out of all G5 conference championship contenders, Boise State might have the most challenging schedule, so that might be a tiebreaker in the end. And the Broncos have more than enough talent to beat Oregon State and Washington State as well as every Mountain West team they’ll face.
Programs like Memphis, Liberty, and App State are certainly in the conversation. But I think Boise State is in a prime position to emerge as the best G5 team in the country.
