AAC Football: Sorting Through The Contenders

This year, the AAC is top-heavy, which means a team that already has two conference losses is likely out of the race. The top two teams will play in the AAC title game. 

Tulane is attempting to make its third consecutive championship appearance after winning the title in 2022 and losing to SMU 26-14 in last year’s title game.

It’s possible a team with one loss may not qualify for the championship game in this 14-team conference. There are just eight conference games, which means many of the contenders won’t face each other. 

For instance, the Army-Navy game scheduled for Dec. 14 in Foxborough, Massachusetts, doesn’t count as an AAC game for either team because of how late it is. The AAC title game is Dec. 6.

AAC Contenders

Army (7-0, 6-0 AAC)

AAC wins: FAU, Rice, Temple, Tulsa, UAB, and East Carolina

Remaining games: at North Texas, UTSA

Outlook: The Black Knights, who play Notre Dame on Nov. 23 the week before finishing their AAC schedule against UTSA, have been one of the surprises of the season. This is their first year in the AAC, and the Black Knights certainly benefit from not facing contenders such as Memphis and Tulane and also having the Navy matchup not count in the standings. The North Texas game could be challenging, but with only two more conference games left, Army has to be considered a favorite to play in the championship game.

Navy (6-1, 4-0)

AAC wins: Temple, Memphis, UAB, and Charlotte

Remaining games: at Rice, at South Florida, Tulane, and at East Carolina

Outlook: The Midshipmen are coming off a humbling 51-14 loss to Notre Dame, so it will be interesting to see how they bounce back against a struggling Rice team this week. The game against Tulane could possibly decide a championship berth for both squads.

Tulane (6-2, 4-0)

AAC wins: South Florida, UAB, Rice, and North Texas

Remaining games: at Charlotte, Temple, at Navy, and Memphis

Outlook: Of the contenders, Tulane has the most difficult remaining schedule with its final two games against Navy and Memphis. The Green Wave have won five in a row since losing 34-19 at Oklahoma, a loss that looks worse as the weeks go by as the Sooners continue to crumble. Tulane’s best AAC win was 45-37 over a pesky North Texas team that is a longshot to win the AAC but has played competitively against the contenders. Make no mistake, the final two games against Navy and Memphis will determine Tulane’s fate.

Memphis (7-1, 3-1)

AAC wins: South Florida, North Texas, and Charlotte

AAC loss: Navy

Remaining games: at UTSA, Rice, UAB, and at Tulane

Outlook: The Tigers will likely have to beat Tulane to make the AAC title game, but even finishing with a 7-1 record may not be enough. Memphis was the preseason pick to win the league, but the Tigers have not lived up to that billing. The 56-44 loss at Navy wasn’t as close as the score indicated. Memphis has not won as convincingly as expected, especially the last two weeks, winning 52-44 against a vastly improved North Texas team and 33-28 this past week at home against Charlotte (3-5). Quarterback Seth Henigan has been good, but not great, completing 64.6% of his passes for 2,078 yards, 12 touchdowns, and four interceptions. Henigan and his team will have to pick up their play, and even if that happens, there is no guarantee that it will be enough.

North Texas (5-2, 2-2)

AAC wins: Tulsa, Florida Atlantic

AAC losses: Memphis, Tulane

Remaining games: Army, at UTSA, East Carolina, and at Temple

Outlook: Even if North Texas finishes on a 4-0 run, it is still highly unlikely the Mean Green can sneak into the AAC Championship because two losses could be one, or even two, too many. The Mean Green have shown they can compete with the best in the conference, having lost by eight points each to Memphis and Tulane. Yet their undoing has been the defense. Even though North Texas leads the AAC in scoring (40.8 points per game), the Mean Green are 13th in scoring defense, allowing 36.9 PPG. It’s a difficult way to win consistently.