I don’t think it needs to be said, but a 5-3 record looks so much better than a 3-5 record.
And for Hawaii, the difference between being 5-3 instead of 3-5 could have very well come down to just a couple of possessions.
In Week 2, the Rainbow Warriors were playing host to UCLA and led for nearly a full three quarters before the Bruins tied the game at 13-13 late in the third. Hawaii had a chance to take back the lead in the fourth quarter and had the ball in UCLA territory, but penalties and dropped passes derailed the drive.
The Bruins ultimately prevailed 16-13 on a field goal with less than one minute to play. College football betting odds had Hawaii as a 13.5-point underdog.
That’s not the only one-possession loss the Rainbow Warriors have dealt with. The second came in Week 6 when they suffered a 27-24 road defeat to San Diego State. Hawaii took the lead in the fourth quarter but allowed the Aztecs to regain the lead on the following possession.
Hawaii had another opportunity to go ahead or tie the game on its ensuing drive. The Rainbow Warriors were facing a fourth and 2 from the SDSU 31-yard line on its 13th play of the drive. Instead of attempting to tie the game with a long field goal, they went for it. The play resulted in a fumble.
If things had gone differently for Hawaii on those drives, it could be looking at a six- or maybe even a seven-win season.
The Rainbow Warriors entered last week on a three-game losing streak but bounced back and defeated Nevada to move to 1-2 in Mountain West play. Now, with four games remaining, can they somehow reach a bowl game?
Winning three of their last four will be no easy task. This week, Hawaii visits Fresno State and then hosts UNLV. It will need to pick up a win in one of these games if it wants to reach six victories and become bowl-eligible.
The Rainbow Warriors close out the season at Utah State and at home against New Mexico. I like their chances in both of these games, especially since they’ll be hosting the Lobos. If they’re able to beat Utah State and UNM, that’ll put the Rainbow Warriors at at least five wins.
Let’s not forget, though, that 5-7 teams can be eligible for a bowl game if there aren’t enough teams that are 6-6. Because of Hawaii’s win over Colorado State in the regular season finale last year, Minnesota was the beneficiary and made it to the Quick Lane Bowl as a 5-7 squad.
And because Hawaii typically has first dibs on the Hawaii Bowl — especially if it is eligible as a 5-7 team — there is a slight chance it can compete in that game.
I’m sure the Rainbow Warriors will try to avoid that situation, though, and finish the season winning three of their final four games.
Hawaii at Fresno State Football Prediction
I predict Fresno State will win but Hawaii will cover the spread at +13.5.
I know last week’s win against Nevada was at home, but the Rainbow Warriors played arguably their most complete game of the season. I expect them to build on that against the Bulldogs.
Fresno State only defeated Nevada by three points two weeks ago.
