South Florida begins its toughest three-game stretch of the season when the Bulls host high-flying Miami on Saturday. After this, USF visits Tulane the following week and, after a bye, hosts Memphis on Oct. 11.
It is a brutal stretch and one that will determine whether the Bulls will contend for the AAC title and a possible College Football Playoff berth. Meanwhile Miami, which joined the ACC in 2004, has never won a league championship, although that could certainly change this year.
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Miami-South Florida How To Watch
Miami at South Florida, 7 p.m. ET Saturday
TV: ESPN
Records: Miami (3-0), South Florida (2-1)
Miami-South Florida Betting Odds
Miami: -17 (-110)
Over/Under: 65.5
Miami-South Florida Coaches
Miami: Mario Cristobal (15-13 at Miami; overall 77-73)
South Florida: Alex Golesh (9-7)
Last meeting: Sept. 28, 2013; Miami won 49-21 in Tampa.
Trailing 49-7 entering the fourth quarter, USF scored the game’s final 14 points. Stephen Morris completed 11 of 16 passes for 222 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. It was the third straight win in this series, which Miami now leads 5-1.
Why The Miami-USF Game Is Important
USF lost a closer-than-it-looks 42-16 defeat at Alabama in its second game. The Bulls trailed 14-13 entering the fourth quarter before the Crimson Tide put the game away. If USF is to upset Miami after playing Alabama so competitively, the Bulls would clearly be in the College Football Playoff picture. They would have to likely beat Tulane and Memphis the following two weeks to stay in that picture and in the AAC race.
Miami would like to get momentum before beginning its ACC schedule next week at home against Virginia Tech. The Hurricanes opened with a 41-17 win at Florida, but the Gators (1-2) now look like a team that won’t even become bowl eligible. Miami is coming off a 62-0 win over Ball State, and the Hurricanes will be looking for a competitive opponent in USF.
Miami Preview
Last week’s 62-0 win over Ball State was Miami’s largest shutout over an FBS opponent. Quarterback Cam Ward has emerged as an early-season Heisman candidate. He has completed 73% of his passes for 1,035 yards, 11 touchdowns, and one interception. A Washington State transfer who began his career at Incarnate Word, Ward has only rushed seven times for 46 yards and a score, but he can run the ball when needed.
Veteran Xavier Restrepo has 14 receptions for 263 yards and four scores. Five different players have scored at least one rushing touchdown. Linebacker Francisco Mauigoa has a team-high 17 tackles, while senior defensive lineman Tyler Baron has 4.5 sacks.
USF Preview
The Bulls are coming off last week’s 49-24 win at Southern Miss. South Florida trailed 14-0 early, but led 28-21 at the half. The Bulls then outscored Southern Miss 21-3 over the final two quarters.
USF totaled 562 yards of offense, including 369 on the ground.
Sophomore quarterback Byrum Brown completed 19 of 29 passes for 193 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions. He ran for 72 yards and a score. Kelley Joiner Jr. ran for 117 yards and two touchdowns, and Nay’Quan Wright rushed for 105 yards and a score.
Six players recorded four or more tackles.
For the season, Brown has completed 55.9% of his passes for 448 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. He has rushed for 254 yards and two scores.
Wide receiver Sean Atkins has a team-high 13 receptions for 164 yards.
Linebacker Mac Harris leads the Bulls in both tackles (19) and tackles for loss (3.5).
Miami-USF Prediction
I like South Florida getting the points. The competitive game that USF had for more than three quarters at Alabama suggests that the Bulls could be competitive for an entire game at home against Miami. While South Florida shouldn’t be discounted from winning outright, Miami is a prohibitive favorite for a reason.
The key, as it often is, will be third-down conversations. Miami is third in the nation in this category, having converted on 20 of 33 third downs. Conversely, USF is 78th, having converted 18 of 46. If these percentages hold up, then Miami will win big. Getting the Hurricanes off the field, especially with Ward’s ability to keep plays alive, is a difficult task, but one that USF will have to accomplish if it wants to be competitive.
In addition, South Florida must continue to be turnover free. The Bulls have caused eight turnovers and turned the ball over once. Their turnover margin of plus-seven, or 2.33 per game, is seventh nationally. Miami isn’t that far behind with a turnover margin of plus-five or 1.67 per game, which is 12th.
For USF to have a chance, the Bulls must win the turnover battle.
