AAC Game of The Week: USF at FAU Prediction & Preview

This is not the season that either South Florida or Florida Atlantic expected. 

USF, which went 7-6 and earned a bowl bid last year, was considered a potential preseason contender in the AAC, and Florida Atlantic was expected to improve after a 4-8 season. 

Instead, both have suffered through disappointing seasons, although each still can become bowl-eligible, which gives this game importance.

USF-FAU How To Watch

South Florida plays at Florida Atlantic at 7:30 p.m. ET on Friday. 

TV: ESPN2

Records: South Florida (3-4, 1-2), Florida Atlantic (2-5, 0-3)

USF-FAU Betting Odds

South Florida is a 2.5-point college football betting odds favorite. The Over/Under is 47.5 total points.

USF-FAU Coaches

South Florida: Alex Golesh (10-10)

Florida Atlantic: Tom Herman (6-13 at Florida Atlantic; 60-35 overall)

Last meeting: Oct. 14, 2023; Florida Atlantic won 56-14 at USF.

Florida Atlantic totaled 589 yards of total offense in what was the Owls’ most impressive win of the season. Daniel Richardson completed 31 of 38 passes for 382 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception for FAU. He also rushed one time for 22 yards. USF’s Byrum Brown was 15 of 26 for 179 yards and no touchdowns or interceptions. He also rushed for 46 yards on 13 carries. 

Why The USF-FAU Game Is Important

This is all about attempting to become bowl-eligible. South Florida’s remaining games are at home vs. Navy (6-1), at Charlotte (3-5), at home against Tulsa (3-5), and at Rice (2-6). The Bulls have to go 3-2 in their final five games to become bowl-eligible. This is realistic. 

Florida Atlantic has a more difficult task. After this week, the Owls visit East Carolina (4-4) and Temple (2-6) and host Charlotte (3-5) before finishing the regular season at Tulsa (3-5). 

FAU will have to go 4-1 during that stretch to become bowl-eligible. Considering the teams that FAU has to face, this isn’t impossible, but difficult nevertheless. 

USF-FAU Preview

For South Florida

In its most recent game on Oct. 19, USF halted its three-game losing streak with a 35-25 win over struggling UAB. Trailing the Blazers 25-20 early in the fourth quarter, USF received touchdown runs of 1 and 33 yards from Kelley Joiner (15 carries, 94 yards) to earn the win.

Making his second start while replacing the injured Brown at quarterback, junior Bryce Archie completed 17 of 31 passes for 201 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception against UAB. Senior Sean Atkins became USF’s all-time leading receiver. He had four receptions for 14 yards, giving him 157 catches for his career. That broke the old mark of 153 receptions set by Andre Davis from 2011-2014. Atkins also had a career-long 54-yard punt return. 

While USF is 3-4, the schedule has been difficult, including a 42-16 loss to Alabama in which the Bulls trailed 14-13 after three quarters and a 50-15 home loss to Miami when they trailed 22-15 at halftime. Their other losses were against two AAC contenders, 45-10 at Tulane and 21-3 at home against Memphis. 

For Florida Atlantic

The Owls are looking to snap a two-game losing streak following a 38-24 loss at UTSA on Oct. 19. The score was tied at 24 entering the fourth quarter before UTSA outscored the Owls 14-0 in the final period. 

The previous game, FAU suffered a 41-37 home loss to North Texas. The Mean Green outscored FAU in the fourth quarter 14-3, and the game-winner came on a 3-yard scoring pass with 45 seconds remaining. 

Quarterback Cam Fancher is in his first year at FAU after transferring from Marshall. Fancher has completed 60.9% of his passes for 1,154 yards, five touchdowns, and six interceptions. He has rushed for 344 yards and two touchdowns. 

The Owls have a solid running attack led by CJ Campbell Jr. (409 yards and six TDs) and Zuberi Mobley (375 yards and four TDs). The Owls played against UTSA without receiver Omari Hayes, who missed his first game due to injury. In six contests, he has 24 receptions for 371 yards and two touchdowns.

Freshman safety CJ Heard leads the Owls with 49 tackles. 

USF-FAU Prediction

I like FAU getting the points. While they have been inconsistent, the Owls have been competitive in many of their losses. For instance, they lost their opener 16-10 at Michigan State. The next week, they lost 24-7 at home against unbeaten Army, trailing just 14-7 at halftime. 

What has hurt the Owls has been the fourth quarter, when they have been outscored 62-24. 

Both teams have struggled to gain consistency on offense. USF is ninth in the AAC in scoring (25.1 points per game) and FAU is 10th (24.4 PPG). FAU is sixth in the AAC in scoring defense, allowing 28 points per game, while USF is eighth (30 PPG).

Here is an interesting contrast – USF has allowed the most sacks in the AAC with 25. Conversely, FAU is last in the AAC with just nine sacks on defense. A key to many games is turnovers, and the two teams are almost equal, with USF having committed 10 while FAU has turned the ball over 11 times.

These teams are so close in so many departments. They are both coming off a bye, so they should be refreshed. Neither team throws the ball well as South Florida is 11th in the AAC in passing yards per game (197.3) while FAU is 12th (181.1). Whichever team gets the most out of its passing game might be the winner.