College Football Betting: The Group Of Five Underdog Of The Week Is JMU +14 at Louisville

Toledo made a last-ditch effort to cover the spread in a 24-16 loss to Kentucky last week. 

College football betting odds had the Rockets as a 10-point underdog, and they scored a touchdown with 1 minute, 55 seconds left in the game when Tucker Gleason connected with Junior Vandeross III to cap a 95-yard drive. 

If someone bet Toledo when the spread was at 10, then the ticket cashed.  But the Rockets were last week’s Group of Five Underdog of the Week and were a 7.5-point underdog when the story was published.

Bummer.

For this week’s selection, I’ll go with another G5 squad that is taking a trip to face a Power Four program.

James Madison (Spread +14, Moneyline +425) At Louisville

The Dukes have an opportunity to be considered as the frontrunner for the G5 playoff spot with a win over Louisville on Friday night and another win over Liberty in their next outing on Sept. 20.

Going into L&N Stadium and knocking off the Cardinals will be a tall task, however.  Louisville is coming off a game against Eastern Kentucky where it put up 542 yards of total offense. I don’t expect them to have near that success against JMU’s defense. 

I think the Dukes’ defense is capable of keeping Louisville at bay, but they must contain running back Isaac Brown, who rushed for 1,173 yards last year and was an All-ACC preseason selection. 

JMU’s front seven should be up for the challenge, though, and is arguably the best in the Sun Belt. If they can at least limit Brown, then the Dukes should be able to hang around. 

Between quarterback Alonza Barnett III and running back George Pettaway, I also think JMU’s offense can be effective. There’s a chance the Cardinals underestimate how dangerous these guys are and they put on a show on national TV.

The Dukes have beaten their last two ACC opponents and were 4-1 against the spread against non-conference opponents last year, which was Bob Chesney’s first year as head coach.

Honorable Mentions

Western Kentucky (+7.5, +240) At Toledo

The line already moved three points in the direction of the Rockets in this matchup that features a pair of top 10 teams in our Group of Five Top 25. 

These teams met last year in Bowling Green where the Hilltoppers pulled off a 26-21 home victory after scoring in the fourth quarter and sealing the game with two interceptions on Toledo’s final two possessions. 

I considered making the Hilltoppers the selection for this week’s underdog, but I don’t know if their defensive line will be able to hold its own against Toledo’s offensive front. I also think a strong run game is the key to beating the Rockets, and I don’t know how well WKU will be able to run the ball here.

I do think it’ll be a close game and could easily be decided by less than a touchdown, though. Per Phil Steele, the Hilltoppers have won their last eight games against MAC opponents and are 5-3 against the spread in those games.

Fresno State (+3, +125) At Oregon State

Following a disappointing outing against Kansas in Week 0, the Bulldogs bounced back in a big way with a drubbing over Georgia Southern last week.

The Bulldogs showed the type of gritty team they can be under first-year head coach Matt Entz, and I expect them to maintain that momentum and mindset against a Beavers team that didn’t look great in a loss to Cal last week.

Fresno State also gets to stay on the West Coast for this game. Oregon State went 2-5 against Mountain West teams last year, and the Bulldogs are 7-3 against the spread versus their last 10 Pac-12 opponents.  

Jacksonville State (+6.5, +205) vs. Liberty

Another Conference USA team makes the honorable mentions here against a conference foe. The Gamecocks played better than I expected last week against UCF while the Flames had an underwhelming performance against Maine.

I like the Gamecocks to run the ball effectively and sustain long drives in a low-scoring game.

Jax State is 5-1 all-time against Liberty.