Louisiana Tech was stingy during last week’s win over Western Kentucky.
The Bulldogs only allowed the Hilltoppers to possess the ball three times in the second half and for only a combined 2 minutes, 23 seconds in the fourth quarter.
It limited any chance at WKU taking a late lead and allowed LA Tech to pull off a 12-7 victory as a 13.5-point underdog and last week’s Group of Five Underdog of the Week.
We’ll head back to Conference USA for this week’s selection.
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New Mexico State (spread +3.5, moneyline +145) at MTSU
While the top four teams in CUSA will be battling for a spot in the conference championship during the next two weeks, the rest of the league will be trying to avoid finishing at the bottom of the standings.
That includes NMSU and MTSU. The Aggies are 2-8 overall and 1-5 in conference play while MTSU is 3-7 and 2-4.
It’s a shame this game won’t get a ton of attention because it has the potential to be an entertaining one. NMSU running backs Seth McGowan and Mike Washington should feast against this MTSU rush defense. McGowan ranks fourth in the conference with 70 rushing yards per game and Washington is ninth with 56 YPG. The duo have combined for nine touchdowns. The Aggies are fourth in the league with 180 rushing YPG.
On the other side of the ball, MTSU ranks last in CUSA, allowing 207 rushing YPG.
NMSU is on a three-game losing streak after falling 38-3 to No. 15-ranked Texas A&M last week. I’m sure the Aggies are eager to finish the season on a high note and end the losing skid.
MTSU quarterback Nicholas Vattiato leads the conference in passing (255.9 YPG) but the production hasn’t resulted in many points. The Blue Raiders are averaging 17 points per game and have eclipsed 21 points just once. I don’t anticipate things to change this weekend.
I do anticipate, however, for McGowan and Washington to combine for over 200 rushing yards and to make it tough for MTSU’s defense to get off the field. The Aggies are a gritty group and can grind out a win here despite the long road trip.
The Aggies have covered the spread three out of their last four games — all as an underdog.
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Sam Houston (+6, +180) at Jacksonville State
It seems like SHSU performs better in the underdog role.
The Bearkats have been favored in their last five outings and haven’t covered the spread in any. They’ve won their last three, including a 23-17 overtime victory against Kennesaw State last week.
I don’t think the Bearkats have played their best football in the past month, but I expect that to change in the final two weeks of the season as they know a trip to the CUSA title game is at stake.
This game pits the top scoring offense in the league against the top scoring defense. Jax State’s offense has been rolling and is averaging a league-best 38.7 points per game. SHSU is allowing just 20.1 PPG.
The Bearkats enter this game ranking No. 1 in the conference in time of possession (32:23) while the Gamecocks have the lowest average (26:42). It’ll be important for SHSU to control the ground game and the clock like it has done for most of the season. It will also need to limit big plays from Jax State’s offense.
I don’t know if SHSU wins, but I think it will keep it a one-score game.
Both teams are 5-5 against the spread, and SHSU is 2-1 as an underdog.
Colorado State (+3.5, +135) at Fresno State
The Rams are 5-0 in Mountain West play and are on the verge of securing their first-ever trip to a MW Championship. They’re also seeking their first MW title since 2002 (the championship game was established in 2013).
Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are coming off a bye week but did suffer losses to Hawaii and Air Force in their last two outings. Fresno State has great homefield advantage at Valley Children’s Stadium, but Rams head coach Jay Norvell keeps finding ways to win.
I like CSU to keep it within a field goal and perhaps pull out a win.
San Diego State (+4.5, +155) at Utah State
The Aggies are coming off a 55-10 win over Hawaii last week. It was just a bad day at the office for the Rainbow Warriors.
Now, I think USU might be coming into this game a little too confident against a San Diego State team that hasn’t won since Oct. 12. I think the Aztecs want this game a little more.
