No. 23-ranked UNLV will put its spot in the Mountain West Championship race on the line when the Rebels travel to San Jose State for a game at 10 p.m. ET Friday on FS1.
The Rebels (8-2, 4-1 Mountain West) currently sit at No. 3 in the conference behind Boise State (9-1, 6-0) and Colorado State (7-3, 5-0). The Mountain West eliminated its two divisions last season, so the two teams with the highest winning percentages will play in the championship on Dec. 6.
UNLV lost to Boise State 29-24 at home this year. To earn a spot in the title game, the Rebels have to win their final two regular season games and hope the Broncos lose both of their remaining games or Colorado State loses at least one. The Rams don’t play UNLV or Boise State this year, but UNLV would likely win a tie-breaker with Colorado State, given the Rebels’ national ranking.
The Rebels’ offense ranks No. 2 in the Mountain West with 39.9 points and 249.1 rushing yards a game. Quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams has racked up 1,994 yards of offense and 22 touchdowns since taking over for Matthew Sluka in late September. Wide receiver Ricky White III ranks No. 2 in the conference with 10 touchdown catches and No. 3 with 867 receiving yards.
San Jose State (6-4, 3-3 Mountain West) has been led by the conference’s most potent passing attack. Wide receiver Nick Nash leads the nation with 95 catches, 1,282 yards, and 14 touchdowns. Justin Lockhart has also had a very good season. He ranks No. 2 in the Mountain West with 925 receiving yards and has four touchdown catches.
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UNLV vs. San Jose State Betting Line
UNLV is a 7.5-point college football betting odds favorite, and the Over/Under is 61.5 points. The Rebels have a chance to secure their second straight nine-win season. They’ve won eight games in a season just three times since 2000, and UNLV hasn’t finished a season with at least 10 wins since it went 11-2 as a member of the Big West Conference in 1984.
The Rebels are 6-14 against the spread in their past 20 regular season games as the favorite on the road. San Jose State is 10-9-1 in its past 20 regular season games as an underdog at home.
UNLV vs. San Jose State Prediction
I predict UNLV wins 36-24.
San Jose State’s passing attack has been one of this season’s most pleasant surprises, and while Nash is likely to add to his impressive stat line, the Spartans could struggle to score against UNLV’s defense, which is giving up 23.4 points a game. Cornerback Jalen Catalon might add to his five interceptions, Williams could continue to pile up yards, and the Rebels have an opportunity to be one step closer to a rematch with Boise State in the Mountain West title game.
Saturday’s games
San Diego State at Utah State
How to watch: 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network
Betting line: Utah State is a 4.5-point favorite, and the Over/Under is 61.5 points.
Prediction: I predict San Diego State wins 27-24. Two of the top running backs in the Mountain West will be on opposite sidelines. San Diego State’s Marquez Cooper ranks No. 3 in the conference with 1,062 rushing yards. He’s followed in the rankings by Utah State’s Rahsul Faison, who has 991 rushing yards. Both running backs could perform well, but the difference in a tight game like this might be Utah State’s continued struggles on defense. The Aggies are giving up 39.1 points a game, which ranks last in the Mountain West.
No. 12 Boise State at Wyoming
How to watch: 7 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network
Betting line: Boise State is a 22.5-point favorite, and the Over/Under is 56.5 points.
Prediction: I predict Boise State wins 38-27. The wind and the cold make playing in Laramie, Wyoming, in late November a difficult task, but it’s not as difficult as stopping Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty. The Heisman contender leads the nation with 1,893 yards and 26 touchdowns on the ground. He should build on his resume in another primetime TV window, but I predict the Cowboys will find a way to keep the Broncos from covering the spread.
Colorado State at Fresno State
How to watch: 10:30 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network
Betting line: Fresno State is a 3.5-point favorite, and the Over/Under is 45.5 points.
Prediction: I predict Colorado State wins 27-17. The Rams are undefeated in Mountain West play, and they’re playing for a spot in the conference title game. Colorado State’s defense should be sufficiently motivated to take advantage of Fresno State’s turnover-prone offense. I anticipate the Rams’ running game, led by Avery Morrow and Justin Marshall, will carry them to another win.
Air Force at Nevada
How to watch: 10:30 p.m. ET, FS1
Betting line: Nevada is a 3.5-point favorite, and the Over/Under is 45.5 points.
Prediction: I predict Air Force wins 30-21. Air Force has won two in a row, and the Falcons finally seem to be clicking on both sides of the ball. The offense racked up 344 rushing yards in a 36-28 win over Fresno State two weeks ago, and Air Force’s defense shut out Oregon State 28-0 last week. Nevada has lost four games in a row, and the Wolf Pack could really use some momentum heading into their season finale at UNLV on Nov. 30.
