A former Boise State assistant coach returns to the blue turf in Albertsons Stadium, and a Heisman Trophy contender will get a chance to pad his resume on national TV as the No. 12-ranked Broncos host Nevada at 8 p.m. ET Saturday on FOX.
Nevada head coach Jeff Choate was an assistant coach at Boise State under former head coach Chris Petersen from 2006 to 2011. After stops at Washington State, Florida, and Washington, and a four-year stint as the head coach at Montana State, Choate was the co-defensive coordinator at Texas from 2021 to 2023.
He took over at Nevada this year, and the Wolf Pack have been more competitive than in recent years, despite their 3-7 overall record and a mark of 0-4 in Mountain West play. Five of Nevada’s losses have been by five points or less, including a 29-24 loss to SMU, a 35-31 setback against San Jose State, and a 24-21 loss to Fresno State.
The Wolf Pack can move the ball on the ground, thanks to quarterback Brendon Lewis and Texas transfer running back Savion Red. Nevada averages 187.7 rushing yards a game, which ranks No. 4 in the Mountain West.
Of course, those look like pedestrian numbers compared to the 267.8 rushing yards Boise State (7-1, 4-0 Mountain West) is averaging thanks to running back Ashton Jeanty. The junior leads the nation with 1,525 rushing yards, 20 rushing touchdowns, and 190.6 rushing yards a game.
Jeanty was held to 149 yards and two touchdowns on the ground in a 56-24 win over San Diego State last week, but quarterback Maddux Madsen (24-of-32 passing, 307 yards, and four touchdowns) and wide receiver Latrell Caples (six catches, 90 yards, and three touchdowns) had career days to carry the Broncos to a win.
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Boise State vs. Nevada Betting Line
Boise State is a 24.5-point college football betting odds favorite, and the Over/Under is 60.5. The Broncos are 31-14 all-time against Nevada, and they’ve won seven of the past eight games in the series, dating back to 2011. They suffered their lone loss in that span in 2021 when former Nevada quarterback Carson Strong led the Wolf Pack to a 41-31 win at Albertsons Stadium.
Boise State is 12-7-1 against the spread in its past 20 games as a favorite at home. Nevada is 13-7 ATS in its past 20 games as an underdog on the road.
Boise State vs. Nevada Prediction
I predict Boise State wins 49-27.
Madsen has thrown 17 touchdowns and just two interceptions. He has been getting better every week. So has Boise State’s defense, which ranks No. 2 in the country with 38 sacks. Jeanty isn’t the only reason the Broncos ranked No. 12 in the initial College Football Playoff poll and have a shot at a top-four seed. They’re a complete team, and they have a chance to prove it on national TV.
Friday Night Matchup
New Mexico at San Diego State
How to watch: 10:30 p.m. ET, FS1
Betting line: San Diego State is a 2.5-point favorite, and the Over/Under is 66.5 points.
Prediction: I predict New Mexico wins 30-27. The Aztecs gave up 541 yards of offense in a 56-24 loss to Boise State last week. They’re in for another test this week against New Mexico quarterback Devon Dampier and running back Eli Sanders, who combined for 412 yards and five touchdowns on the ground last week in a 49-45 loss to Wyoming.
Saturday’s Games
San Jose State at Oregon State
How to watch: 3:30 p.m. ET, The CW
Betting line: Oregon State is a three-point favorite, and the Over/Under is 55.5 points.
Prediction: I predict San Jose State wins 24-17. San Jose State wide receiver Nick Nash is having a special season, no matter who is at quarterback. He leads the country with 80 catches and 12 touchdown receptions, and he ranks No. 3 in the nation with 995 receiving yards. I think he’ll have another big day, and the Spartans’ defense will do just enough to secure a win heading into a matchup against Boise State.
UNLV at Hawaii
How to watch: 9 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network
Betting line: UNLV is a 13.5-point favorite, and the Over/Under is 49.5 points.
Prediction: I predict UNLV wins 21-17. Hawaii is coming off a big win at Fresno State, but the Rainbow Warriors’ potent passing attack is going to get tested against one of the top defenses in the Mountain West. I believe the Rebels, led by linebacker Jackson Woodard, will capitalize on turnovers and quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams will lead a decisive late drive in a close win.
Fresno State at Air Force
How to watch: 9:45 p.m. ET, FS1
Prediction: I predict Fresno State wins 42-21. The Bulldogs will be motivated after suffering their second conference loss against Hawaii last week. Fresno State has to win out and needs some help to have any hope of earning a spot in the Mountain West Championship. Air Force has struggled to find any consistency on offense, but there is enough experience on the defensive side of the ball to bait Fresno State quarterback Mikey Keene into a turnover or two.
Utah State at Washington State
How to watch: 10:30 p.m. ET, The CW
Betting line: Washington State is a 20.5-point favorite, and the Over/Under is 70.5 points.
Prediction: I predict Washington State wins 42-24. The Cougars are 7-1 and ranked No. 21 in the initial College Football Playoff poll thanks in large part to quarterback John Mateer, who has accounted for 28 touchdowns (18 passing and 10 rushing). The Aggies have some weapons of their own, even after they lost star wide receiver Jalen Royals to a season-ending injury. Keep an eye on running back Rahsul Faison and wide receiver Kyrese White in what could turn into a shootout.
