Nothing went right for New Mexico State in the fourth quarter of Saturday’s loss to Louisiana Tech.
The Aggies were trailing 27-14 but were then outscored 22-0 in the final 15 minutes and coughed up two turnovers before losing as last week’s Group of Five Underdog of the Week.
I expected more of a dogfight, but the Bulldogs were in control for nearly the entire contest.
Nonetheless, we move on to this week’s selection, featuring college football betting odds from BetMGM.
East Carolina (Spread +6.5, Moneyline +195) vs. BYU
The only three meetings between these two programs have been played in the last decade, and ECU has fared well in each of them.
The Pirates have won the last two matchups, including a 27-24 victory on the road in 2022 after Andrew Conrad’s late go-ahead field goal. ECU also won in 2017 at home, while its loss came by a touchdown in Provo in 2015.
I like the Pirates to show up to play in this meeting as well.
ECU has been dominant in its last two wins against Campbell and Coastal Carolina and also played a 3-0 NC State team to the wire.
We have yet to see BYU be tested this season, in my opinion, and this 2,233-mile trip is by far the longest road trip the Cougars have to take this year. I think the travel could play a small factor, but I expect for Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium to be rowdy for this primetime, nationally-televised game. It’s not an easy place for an opponent, even though there will likely be a strong showing of BYU fans.
It worries me some that the Cougars are coming off a bye and should be refreshed and prepared, but I still trust the Pirates to be physical and cause some havoc for BYU freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier. He’s a dual-threat QB, so it’ll be crucial for ECU to contain him.
The Pirates are playing really well right now and have outscored their opponents 104-10 since halftime of the NC State game. If their offense continues to roll, they may be able to control the tempo of this game which could keep BYU’s offense from finding a rhythm.
Per Phil Steele, ECU is 13-4 against the spread versus non-conference opponents since 2022. BYU is 10-13 ATS as an away favorite under Kalani Sitake.
Honorable Mentions
Bowling Green (+25.5, +1500) at Louisville
I think last week’s convincing win over Liberty proved that Bowling Green isn’t planning to rebuild in Eddie George’s first year as head coach. Even with a roster turnover and a late recruiting start for George, the Falcons look like they’re legit and could even make some noise in the MAC.
They’ve been an underdog in two games this season and have covered the spread in both. They’ve also covered in their last four meetings against Power Four programs.
Meanwhile, Louisville has been a favorite in both of its games and failed to cover in each. The Cardinals survived an upset against James Madison two weeks ago.
Louisville is solid, but four touchdowns is a lot to spot a hungry team that has nothing to lose and doesn’t have to travel far.
Middle Tennessee (+2.5, +110) vs. Marshall
The Blue Raiders landed on last week’s honorable mentions list and ended up defeating Nevada 14-13 as a 9.5-point underdog.
It took nearly the entire game, but MTSU finally found some offensive traction and scored a touchdown on its final two drives while Nevada missed two field goals in the final 2:15 of the game.
I think that finish sparked some life for the Blue Raiders and that they’re able to carry that momentum into this home game against a Marshall team that hasn’t looked great this season.
Troy (+6, +200) at Buffalo
Following a near upset win over Clemson as 30.5-point underdogs two weeks ago, the Trojans looked flat in last week’s 28-7 loss to Memphis. They finished with only 112 total yards while surrendering 431.
I like Troy to find its footing again against Buffalo, which needed a late touchdown to defeat Kent State. The Trojans have a bye week up next, and I don’t expect them to want to go into the off week with a bad taste in their mouths.
Troy is 4-2 ATS in their last six meetings against MAC teams.
