Whew.
Florida State made things interesting late last week before Memphis outlasted the Seminoles for the 20-12 win as a 6.5-point underdog. College football betting odds had the Tigers at +200 on the moneyline. I thought that game was going to go into overtime and Florida State was going to somehow cover the spread.
It was a big win for Memphis and also the first Group of Five Underdog of the Week that has cashed. The Tigers now sit at No. 1 in the HERO Sports Group of Five Top 25.
Here’s this week’s selection.
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East Carolina (Spread +6.5, Moneyline +205) At Liberty
The Pirates’ uniforms last week were clean. They were sporting arguably the best uniform combo in the country.
What wasn’t very clean, though, was ECU’s offense. It scored on its first two possessions but could only muster a field goal after that in a 21-19 loss to Appalachian State. That’s been the theme so far for the Pirates. Their offense has struggled while the defense has been one of the best in the AAC.
It’s hard for me to back a quarterback that’s tossed an FBS-high eight interceptions in three games. Yet, somehow the Pirates are 2-1 and were so close to being 3-0 with a quality win over App State. Pirates QB Jake Garcia tossed a pick on the final drive, however, when all ECU needed was a field goal to go ahead.
However, it is easy to get behind this defensive unit that has done its best to keep the Pirates competitive. Sure, it gave up 424 passing yards to Joey Aguilar last week, but they kept the Mountaineers off the board and gave ECU a chance to win, forcing a fumble and getting the ball back to the offense late in the fourth quarter.
ECU’s defense is the real deal, and I think it poses problems for Kaidon Salter and a Liberty offense that has faced some relatively easy defenses so far this season. Liberty head coach Jamey Chadwell even said that this ECU team is the best squad that has gone to Lynchburg during his short two years there.
The Pirates are allowing only 12.7 points per game, and I expect their defensive front to give the Flames’ offensive line some trouble, making things hard on Salter. The Flames may also be without running back Quniton Cooley, who could miss this game with an injury.
ECU is 14-7 as an underdog on the road under head coach Mike Houston, and I expect this to be another low-scoring, grind-it-out game. Liberty’s defense doesn’t scare me much, and I think the Pirates can do just enough offensively to keep this within one possession.
Honorable Mentions
James Madison (+10.5, +330) At North Carolina
There seems to be a quarterback controversy in Chapel Hill.
Starter Conner Harrell struggled for the Tar Heels while backup Jacolby Criswell came in and helped guide UNC to a win over NC Central last week.
Sometimes I’m weary of what to expect from a team when it doesn’t know which QB to prepare for, but who the Dukes should be spending all of their time preparing for is UNC running back Omarion Hampton, who already has 416 yards on the year.
If the Dukes want any chance to win, they’ll need to slow him down. Despite giving up only 13 points across its first two games — albeit to Charlotte and Gardner-Webb — JMU’s defense hasn’t been impressive, but this is an opportunity for JMU to prove it’s still a threat in the Sun Belt. I don’t think the Dukes let the opportunity slip away.
Coastal Carolina (+3.5, +150) vs. Virginia
The Chanticleers probably didn’t play as well as they would have liked in a 28-20 win over Temple last week. I anticipate them to be much more prepared for this game.
Coastal Carolina isn’t a home underdog very often, and there’s good reason for that. The Chanticleers have been dominant at home, going 24-4 since 2020. Last year, they were 2-1 as a home underdog in head coach Tim Beck’s first season.
I think the Chanticleers pick up the win here and Ethan Vasko has a day against UVA’s defense.
Buffalo (+14, +430) At Northern Illinois
NIU never had an opportunity for a hangover following the win over Notre Dame. The Huskies had a bye last week and were able to soak it all in. I think that hangover happens this week.
Buffalo’s offense is not very good, but I think its defense can do enough to make this no more than a two-possession game.
