Boise State and UNLV are the highest Group of Five teams in the College Football Playoff Selection Committee’s rankings. That means, essentially, the Mountain West Championship this week is a CFP play-in game.
The No. 10-ranked Broncos are 11-1 overall and 7-0 in Mountain West play with their only loss being a three-point game at Oregon. They’ve won their last 10 contests, including a 29-24 victory at UNLV earlier this season.
But the Rebels have a strong resume as well. They are 10-2 with a 6-1 mark against conference opponents. They’ve defeated two Power Four teams – Houston and Kansas – and lost 44-41 in overtime to Syracuse.
Now they get a rematch with Boise State.
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UNLV vs. Boise State Betting Odds
UNLV is a +4 college football betting odds underdog against Boise State, with the Over/Under being 57.5.
The moneyline for UNLV is +155, while it’s -190 for Boise State.
UNLV vs. Boise State On TV
The matchup between UNLV and Boise State will be televised on FOX.
The game will kick off at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, Dec. 6. The contest is taking place at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho.
UNLV vs. Boise State Prediction
I predict Boise State will win and cover the spread at -4. I also project the game will go Under 57.5 total points.
This prediction isn’t just about Ashton Jeanty, the Heisman Trophy contender who’s rushed for 2,288 yards so far this season. Although, if he has a strong performance against UNLV, that would surely help the Broncos control this contest. He ran for 128 yards and a touchdown on 33 carries during Boise State’s win at UNLV earlier this year.
But I don’t think Jeanty putting up a ton of yards is a guarantee because UNLV’s defense has been pretty stout. The Rebels are in the top 10 in the FBS with 101.1 rushing yards per game allowed. They’re also in the top 50 in the country in total defense (349.2 yards allowed per game) and scoring defense (22 points allowed per game).
No, my prediction is based on the expectation that Boise State’s defense is going to shine here.
The Broncos have had some imperfections through the season, but they’re playing exceptionally well on that side of the ball lately. They haven’t allowed their last four opponents to score more than 21 points.
Hajj-Malik Williams has been an outstanding playmaker since he’s become UNLV’s starting quarterback. He’s a dual-threat QB, and he had over 100 rushing yards the last time he faced Boise State.
But the Broncos are second in the country with 45 sacks, and they’re at home this time. I anticipate Boise State’s defensive front will make things tough for UNLV and its offensive line.
And with Jeanty on the other side of the ball, I think Boise State will be in control of this matchup again en route to a CFP berth.
