Pac-12 Conference Realignment: Ranking Expansion Targets For The Pac-12 Beyond 2026

The Pac-12 has dealt with a lot of turmoil over the last five years, and it’s impressive that the conference is where it’s at.

But considering the league is at a minimum of eight teams, which means an eight-game conference schedule leads to teams playing each other twice in one season, the Pac-12 likely isn’t done trying to expand.

Here’s a ranking of teams I think have the most realistic chance of going to the Pac-12 next:

Pac-12 Conference Expansion Targets, Ranked

Rank	School
1	UConn
2	New Mexico State
3	Toledo
4	Tarleton State
5	Sac State
6	Montana State
7	Montana
8	UC Davis
9	UNLV
10	UTSA

Ranking Teams Most Likely Going To The Pac-12 Next

10. UTSA (or any other team in the American)

I’m putting all of the teams from the American under one category because one of these teams could ultimately make the jump to the Pac-12, but I don’t see it as a realistic option right now.

The American has solidified itself as one of the best, if not the best, conference in the Group of Six. While the Pac-12 will be solid, I don’t see why some of these teams in the American would take a risk like this.

Tulane, USF, Memphis, and UTSA already reaffirmed their commitment to the American two years ago when the Pac-12 was trying to add teams. And that was when it looked like the Pac-12’s TV deal was going to be better than what it ended up reportedly being. 

I’m just not sure what has changed between now and then. Maybe those four teams collectively decide they’re dissatisfied with the direction the American is going in at some point for whatever reason and they could jump conferences together, but I don’t see that being the case as of now.

I think UTSA stands out to me above all because pairing UTSA and Texas State in the same conference sounds fun to me. And geographically it makes more sense than some other programs – Rice also stands out because it would give the Pac-12 a second team in Texas.

Again, never say never. But I would think the Pac-12 would have to look elsewhere right now.

9. UNLV (or any other team in the Mountain West)

From a geographical standpoint, any team in the Mountain West would be a good option for the Pac-12. But considering the legalities of the Pac-12 poaching the teams it already did, I also see this as unlikely.

UNLV would obviously be the first team in the current Mountain West the Pac-12 would want. That would give the league a spot in the Las Vegas media market. And while historically the Rebels have struggled, they’ve been contenders for Mountain West titles the past few seasons.

I’m honestly surprised that, if the Pac-12 really wanted at least one more team, that it didn’t go for North Dakota State sooner. But now the Bison are in the Mountain West, and jumping leagues quickly at this point wouldn’t make a ton of sense.

8. UC Davis

Now begins the FCS teams I think would stand out in this conversation.

If the Pac-12 was absolutely desperate for another member in the next two to three years – which I don’t think is necessarily the case – then UC Davis should at least be mentioned. The Aggies are one of the better teams in the FCS and the Big Sky, and having another team in California wouldn’t be so bad either.

But UC Davis also isn’t the No. 1 team I would think about here.

6-7. Montana State/Montana

Montana State and Montana, with North Dakota State gone, are in a tier of their own in the FCS with South Dakota State and maybe a couple others. So when looking at teams in that subdivision, they clearly stand out from a competitive standpoint.

Montana State just won the FCS national championship, and Montana is consistently a contender as well. I think they’re both in the top five on this list in terms of talent.

They also make sense from a location standpoint. It wouldn’t take cross-country trips for Montana to host San Diego State. The Pac-12 could strengthen its foothold in the western part of the country.

But I don’t think the Pac-12 is going to want to go with FCS teams. And considering the Montanas would likely have to be a package deal for a jump to the FBS and the Pac-12 might only want one more member for now, this isn’t exactly a perfect fit.

5. Sacramento State

I know the Pac-12 said no to Sacramento State already. But the Hornets still have to be in this conversation, especially considering they’re now in the FBS as members of the MAC.

Sac State being in California helps its case, as does it being in a solid media market. The Hornets aren’t the strongest team on this list in terms of talent, though – we’ll have to see how they compete in the MAC.

When it comes to conference realignment, we’ve seen FBS leagues prioritize teams already in the FBS over standout FCS teams. The Mountain West added Northern Illinois and UTEP before it invited North Dakota State.

So now that Sac State is in the FBS, maybe the Pac-12 adding the Hornets is a bit more realistic.

4. Tarleton State

Tarleton State has often been identified as the FCS team most ready for a move up to the FBS. That’s because of the program’s significant investment in athletics. 

And that could be appealing for the Pac-12. Think of Tarleton State as a long-term developmental player rather than one that’s immediately ready for the starting lineup. There’s potential there.

And the Texans proved that this past season when they went 12-2 overall, losing in the FCS quarterfinals. The investment is paying off.

Now, we’ve already discussed how FCS teams probably aren’t the No. 1 choice, and maybe Tarleton State goes to another G6 league before it ever gets a Pac-12 invite. But there’s no question its positioned for an FBS jump.

3. Toledo

We just saw the Mountain West try to add Northern Illinois and Toledo – NIU said yes, Toledo said no – so maybe the Pac-12 could try to add the Rockets.

While Toledo just lost head coach Jason Candle – who is now the head coach at another team on this list – the Rockets have consistently been one of the better teams in the MAC. And while Toledo isn’t exactly nearby, we’ve learned in the last five years of conference realignment that proximity doesn’t have to be a huge factor with moves like this.

2. New Mexico State

New Mexico State might not be the most strong candidate in terms of wins and losses. But the Aggies do stand out if the Pac-12 is looking for another member in the western region of the country.

Let’s take an assessment here. The Pac-12 probably wants another member already in the FBS. Teams in the American and Mountain West might not be possible for reasons already mentioned. Unless you’re looking to go all the way across the country and poach more teams from the Sun Belt – I guess that could happen, but James Madison would be a lot farther than Texas State – you kind of run out of options if you’re the Pac-12.

NMSU would be an addition out of convenience more than anything else. 

1. UConn

There’s a reason the UConn/Pac-12 rumors have been swirling.

UConn is an FBS independent, so the Pac-12 could add a school already in the FBS and wouldn’t have to worry about poaching from another conference. And while UConn struggled for many years, the Huskies have been a top 10-15 G6 team the last few seasons.

The one thing that wouldn’t be easy is location. Also, UConn is comfortable in the Big East with basketball, so it wouldn’t be for all sports.

But if the Pac-12 really needed a ninth football member, I can see why it would look to UConn first.