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San Diego State Football Preview: Odds, Schedule, & Prediction

Colton Pool by Colton Pool
August 2, 2023
San Diego State quarterback Jalen Mayden

AP Photo/Gary Kazanjian

While going 2-2 against non-conference opponents, San Diego State competed well in Mountain West play. 

The Aztecs were 5-3 against conference programs, but they couldn’t pull off wins against the top-notch teams like Boise State and Fresno State. They also lost to Middle Tennessee in the Hawaii Bowl.

SDSU is aiming to take another step up in 2023.


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San Diego State Football’s Mountain West Title Odds

SDSU’s odds to win the Mountain West are +750, via BetMGM.

San Diego State Football’s Over/Under Win Total

SDSU’s win total Over/Under is 7, with Under 7 at -115 and Over 7 at -105.

San Diego State Football’s Schedule

8/26 vs Ohio

9/2 vs Idaho State

9/9 vs UCLA

9/16 at Oregon State

9/22 vs Boise State

9/30 at Air Force

10/14 at Hawaii

10/21 vs Nevada

11/4 vs Utah State

11/11 at Colorado State

11/18 at San Jose State

11/25 vs Fresno State

Bold indicates Mountain West contests.

🔸#CFB G5 Spotlight🔸

San Diego State (@AztecFB) offensive lineman Cade Bennett (@cadealanbennett)

-2023 jr.
-6-3, 305 lbs
-All-Mountain West 2nd team
-0 sacks and just 6 QB pressures allowed in 2022https://t.co/KVbR6uEbzO

— HERO Sports (@HERO_SportsCFB) July 28, 2023

Key San Diego State Football Returners

2022 All-Mountain West 1st Team

P Jack Browning

2nd Team

OL Cade Bennett

TE Mark Redman

Jalen Mayden Setting The Tone For San Diego State’s Offense

San Diego State returns one of the best Mountain West quarterbacks in Jalen Mayden.

Mayden started last season at safety, but after moving back to quarterback he finished in the league’s top five with 2,030 passing yards while recording 12 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, and a 60% completion percentage. He also ran for 231 yards and three touchdowns.

Last year’s leading rusher for SDSU, Jordan Byrd, is gone. But running back Jaylon Armstead returns after rushing for 313 yards and two touchdowns. Kenan Christon is also back, having rushed for 261 yards and a touchdown in 2022.

SDSU’s top two receivers from last year have departed. Mekhi Shaw was the leader among San Diego State’s returning receivers as he recorded 349 yards and three touchdowns. SDSU also added former Western Carolina wide receiver Raphael Williams Jr.

Tight end Mark Redman is a 2023 HERO Sports G5 Preseason All-American for San Diego State. He caught 21 passes for 233 yards and two touchdowns last season.

San Diego State was among the best five teams in the Mountain West in terms of rushing yards per game (143.5) and sacks allowed (27) last season. SDSU brings back plenty of talented veterans up front with left tackle Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson, left guard Cade Bennett, and right guards Ross Ulugalu-Maseuli, Dean Abdullah, and Thomas Mirabella all returning after starting multiple games at their respective positions. Bennett was another G5 preseason All-American for HERO Sports.

🔸#CFB G5 Spotlight🔸

San Diego State (@AztecFB) tight end Mark Redman (@MarkRedman20)

-2023 sr.
-6-6, 250 lbs
-All-Mountain West second team
-20 catches for 225 yards and two touchdowns in 2022pic.twitter.com/vIcdhzxVEJ

— HERO Sports (@HERO_SportsCFB) June 15, 2023

Cody Moon Among Additions For San Diego State’s Defense

San Diego State picked up one of the top transfers in the Mountain West in linebacker Cody Moon. Another G5 preseason All-American, he totaled 105 tackles, 9.5 for loss, and 4.5 sacks for New Mexico en route to all-conference honorable mention accolades in 2022.

And while SDSU also added other defenders like former Texas safety J.D. Coffey III and former Oklahoma State defensive lineman Samuela Tuihalamaka, the Aztecs lost plenty of talent on defense. SDSU was among the top four Mountain West teams for points allowed (20.5 per game) and yards allowed (322.7 per game).

Six of their top 11 tacklers from last season are no longer on the team. That includes Patrick McMorris, who transferred to Cal, and Jonah Tavai, who’s trying to earn a spot in the NFL.

Cedarious Barfield is one of SDSU’s best players coming back on defense. The safety was the leading tackler among the team’s returners with 49 total tackles while adding four tackles for loss, two forced fumbles, and two pass breakups.

Davaughn Celestine is also back at safety. He was fifth on the team with 48 tackles and chipped in three pass breakups, two forced fumbles, and 1.5 TFLs.


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San Diego State Football Season Prediction

San Diego State won’t be the Mountain West champ but will win at least eight games.

While it’s not impossible for the Aztecs to reach the conference title game, I think Boise State will end up winning the league. However, SDSU should win most of its contests this year.

The Aztecs begin the season by hosting Ohio and Idaho State, and I believe SDSU will be triumphant in both of those matchups. I don’t see SDSU winning against UCLA or Oregon State the following weeks, though.

As for Mountain West play, SDSU is capable of going 6-2. I believe the Aztecs are better than Hawaii, Nevada, Utah State, Colorado State, and San Jose State.

Of the other conference games on its schedule, SDSU gets to host Boise State and Fresno State while playing at Air Force. I think the Aztecs will have a good shot of winning at least one of those matchups.

So while it may not result in a conference crown, SDSU should enjoy plenty of success in 2023.

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