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San Diego State vs. Hawaii Prediction, Betting Odds & How To Watch

Ron Counts by Ron Counts
November 7, 2025
San Diego State defensive end Trey White

AP Photo/Kyusung Gong

San Diego State football coach Sean Lewis has been adamant since he was hired about finding ways to convince the top players in San Diego to stay home and play for the Aztecs.

Lewis refers to the Aztecs’ homegrown talent as “hometown heroes,” and there may not be a better example on the roster than running back Lucky Sutton. 

Sutton was a star at Cathedral Catholic High School in San Diego, where he racked up 3,581 yards and 44 touchdowns during his career. Success didn’t come right away at San Diego State, though. He didn’t see the field much during his first three seasons, even as the Aztecs’ won just three games last year.

The 6-foot-1, 225-pound junior stuck it out, and this year, he has emerged as one of the most consistent running backs in the Mountain West. He has run for at least 80 yards in all but one game this season, and he’s gone over 100 four times. 

Sutton has posted career highs in each of the past two games – putting up 131 yards against Fresno State and 158 last week against Wyoming – and he leads the conference with 820 rushing yards. He’s No. 2 in the league in carries (154) and rushing touchdowns (eight), trailing only Air Force quarterback Liam Szarka in both categories.


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“His growth and development is probably one of the greatest we’ve seen since we’ve been here,” Lewis said on Monday. “He’s a kid that has obviously earned our trust, and we can count on him to give an unbelievable effort to do what is required and needed to come home as a winner.”

Sutton and the Mountain West-leading Aztecs (7-1, 4-0 MWC) go on the road Saturday to face Hawaii (6-3, 3-2) in a game that could have major conference title ramifications. San Diego State is the only team in the league that is undefeated in conference play. Hawaii is in a log jam of two-loss teams trying to keep pace. 

The Rainbow Warriors are coming off a 45-38 loss to San Jose State. Hawaii trailed most of the game but cut the deficit to three early in the fourth quarter before the Spartans pulled away. Quarterback Micah Alejado has thrown for at least 300 yards and three touchdowns in four straight games. 

San Diego State vs. Hawaii Betting Odds

San Diego State is a seven-point college football betting odds favorite at BetMGM as of the time of this writing, and the Over/Under is 49.5 points. The moneyline is at -275 for San Diego State and +220 for Hawaii.

San Diego State leads the all-time series 26-11-2, and the Aztecs have won five straight against the Rainbow Warriors, including a 27-24 win last season. 

The Aztecs are 18-2 overall and 13-6-1 against the spread in their past 20 regular season games as the favorite on the road. Hawaii is 8-12 overall and 13-5-2 ATS in its past 20 regular season games as an underdog at home. 

San Diego State vs. Hawaii On TV

The Mountain West game featuring San Diego State and Hawaii at the Clarence TC Ching Complex in Honolulu, Hawaii, will be televised on the Mountain West App and Spectrum Sports.

Kickoff is scheduled for 11 p.m. ET on Saturday.

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San Diego State vs. Hawaii Prediction

I predict San Diego State wins 27-17.

Sutton is running with confidence and power, and he’s playing behind an offensive line that seems to get better every week. Hawaii has a high-powered passing attack and can put up some serious points, but the Rainbow Warriors haven’t faced a defense like San Diego State’s this season.

Wyoming scored on its opening possession last week, but the Aztecs shut the Cowboys out and held them to 110 yards for the rest of the game. They’re giving up 10 points a game, which ranks No. 2 in the country, and they’re limiting teams to 88.5 rushing yards a game. I’m looking for San Diego State to pressure Alejado into a few mistakes and pick up a big win heading into next week’s showdown with Boise State.

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