Week 11 of the 2021 FCS season is here.
All year, Senior FCS Analyst Sam Herder will give his thoughts and score predictions on the week’s biggest games. This week features plenty of games with playoff implications.
Let’s predict some scores.
Predictions Record:
2021: 57-32
Spring 2021: 53-25
2019: 100-42
Week 11
Notable Games And How To Watch
New Hampshire at Rhode Island
Rhody needs to win out to make the playoffs, in my opinion. The Rams would then be 8-3 with an FBS win against UMass. A seven-win Rhode Island is right on the bubble and could be red-flagged for its three-game losing streak with decisive margins before beating UMass
That losing streak has me skeptical about Rhody winning out. The Rams should get a win this weekend, though, before going to Elon. UNH is on a six-game losing streak and gave UAlbany its first win of the season last week. The Wildcats have the 112th worst passing defense in the FCS, allowing 273.0 yards per game. Expect a big day from Rhody QB Kasim Hill and his balanced group of pass-catchers.
Prediction: Rhode Island 31-14
No. 21 VMI at Furman
After suffering its second loss in SoCon play against ETSU, VMI needs to win out to secure its spot in the playoffs with eight wins. Splitting these last two games puts VMI into a jumbled mess of several seven-win teams on the bubble.
VMI can’t mess around with this Furman team, who pushed and narrowly lost to top SoCon squads ETSU and Chattanooga. The Keydets have had slow starts in their last two games, needing a huge comeback to beat Samford and having a comeback, but a little-too-late effort in the loss to ETSU.
Furman is strong defensively, but I think VMI comes out with a sense of urgency and jumps out to a comfortable lead early with some big plays downfield to Jakob Herres.
Prediction: VMI 28-17
Holy Cross at Fordham
RELATED: Patriot League Title Runs Through Ram-Crusader Cup
Two 4-0 teams in the Patriot League standings go at it to get the edge in the conference’s auto-bid race.
Fordham QB Tim DeMorat has had a special season and perhaps has been too overshadowed by other quarterbacks putting up monster numbers. DeMorat has thrown for 2,641 yards, 27 TDs, and five interceptions while rushing for three more scores. Holy Cross has also shown some offensive explosion, averaging 32.6 points per game compared to 22.5 PPG in the spring season.
It will be tough to completely stifle the Fordham offense. But I think Holy Cross can limit the Rams. The defense is led by stud linebacker Jacob Dobbs, who has 97 tackles, 13.5 TFLs, and eight sacks. Fordham’s defense isn’t as strong, allowing 28.0 PPG, and I think that will be the difference in the fourth quarter.
Prediction: Holy Cross 31-28
No. 4 South Dakota State at No. 19 South Dakota
USD needs to beat either SDSU this week or NDSU next weekend to make the playoffs. That would give the Coyotes seven wins, highlighted by a splashy victory at the end to impress the playoff committee. They have a lot to play for. But so do the Jacks.
SDSU is in line for a seed after beating NDSU last Saturday. A loss knocks the Jacks back into playing in the first round. SDSU is peaking at the right time and is getting standout players back from injury. I don’t see this being a trap game for the Jacks, considering the last time they played their in-state rival resulted in a 24-21 loss two years ago.
SDSU looks poised for a deep playoff run. A loss Saturday would derail that momentum. The Jacks are rolling offensively, and I don’t see USD having enough success with its offense in this matchup.
Prediction: SDSU 28-14
No. 22 Chattanooga at Mercer
To be frank, I’m not a big believer in Mercer despite it being 5-1 in the SoCon. The Bears have only played one top team, a 45-7 loss to VMI. They play the other two top teams, UTC and ETSU, in the final two games. Mercer needs to win both to make the playoffs, in my opinion, or else it will have less than seven D1 wins.
The Mocs, who are also 5-1 in the conference along with ETSU and Mercer, will earn the SoCon’s auto-bid if it wins out with a head-to-head win against ETSU.
Mercer has recovered well from its blowout loss to VMI, beating Wofford 45-14 and The Citadel 34-7. I think the Bears can give UTC a scare, but the Mocs will pull away and extend their winning streak to five.
Prediction: Chattanooga 27-17
No. 20 Northern Iowa at No. 16 Missouri State
The likelihood of a team with six D1 wins getting an at-large bid this season is small. If one team was to do it, it would be UNI thanks to its three ranked wins against playoff teams Sac State, SDSU, and SIU. The Panthers won’t want to leave their fate in the hands of the committee, though. Beating Mo State and then WIU would give them their seventh D1 win and fourth over a ranked opponent, which is a playoff-worthy resume.
Missouri State is hot right now, beating SIU last week and now looking to hit that seven-win mark this week. If the Bears beat UNI, they would just need to avoid what would be a massive upset at Dixie State next Saturday to make the bracket with eight wins.
UNI plays its best when it is in playoff mode. It seems every year the Panthers are playing for their postseason lives and usually find a way to make the bracket. Give me UNI for the win.
Prediction: UNI 24-20
No. 2 James Madison at No. 25 William & Mary
With how JMU is playing right now, I don’t see the Dukes having much trouble getting a win here. What I am interested to see is how well W&M competes. At 6-3 overall and 6-2 against the FCS, the Tribe hammered Villanova a couple of weeks ago for its marquee win. Nova, who beat JMU, is still looking at a seed. So I believe W&M is in the bracket if it loses this week and beats Richmond next week to hit seven wins.
But if W&M gets absolutely blasted by JMU and the bubble is packed, that maybe would be a reason the committee leaves 7-4 W&M out. The Tribe is making great improvements under Mike London, which is a great sign for the CAA. It is a playoff-caliber team again after making the bracket three times from 2009-2015. But the Dukes are a national title-caliber team, and they will want a strong finish as the Top 4 seed order could come down to very small details.
Prediction: JMU 35-14
No. 17 UIW at Nicholls
The Southland could get interesting in the final two weeks. After beating SLU last week, UIW is 5-1 in the standings alongside SLU. Nicholls is 4-2 with the two losses against UIW and SLU. Nicholls, who is on a three-game winning streak, plays those two teams again to close out the regular season.
If Nicholls beats both, it’s a three-way tie at the top and the committee would have a hard time not putting all three into the bracket.
It’s tough to beat a team twice. Nicholls lost 38-21 at UIW in mid-October. I don’t know yet if Nicholls will go to SLU next week and get a win, but I think the Colonels make it super interesting by beating UIW on Saturday in a thriller.
Prediction: Nicholls 45-42
No. 7 Eastern Washington at No. 6 UC Davis
RELATED: What’s At Stake For EWU at UC Davis?
There is a lot on the line here for playoff positioning, as explained in the link above.
EWU needs this one to get back on track as it is on a two-game losing streak. The Eagles have played three strong defenses this year, resulting in a 34-28 win against Montana, a 35-34 loss to Weber, and a 23-20 loss to Montana State. They play another tough defense this week in UC Davis.
UC Davis has the No. 10 scoring defense in the FCS (16.9 PPG). Montana State is No. 2 (11.4 PPG), Weber is No. 33 (22.0 PPG), and Montana is No. 6 (14.4 PPG).
There is a difference between these four strong defenses, though.
MSU is No. 4 in passing yards allowed per game (161.2) and Weber is No. 15 (180.2). Playing those two defenses ended in losses for EWU. Montana has a good scoring defense, but is gettable through the air, ranking No. 89 with 241.2 passing yards allowed a game. That matchup was a win for EWU. UC Davis has a similar defensive makeup and is No. 88 with 239.3 passing yards allowed per game.
The Eagles will get their yards through the air Saturday, and I don’t think the UC Davis offense will be able to keep up for all four quarters.
Prediction: EWU 38-31
NEXT: FCS Bracketology
RELATED: Week 11 HBCU Predictions
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