“What teams/results do I need to watch for us to get a Top 8 seed?”
“What teams/results do I need to watch for us to get in the bracket from the bubble?”
As FCS Selection Sunday nears, there is a long list of Week 13 games that can impact the 24-team bracket. We list them below, conference by conference.
We included any team that could hit at least seven wins in multi-bid conferences. While winning seven games doesn’t mean you’re in the bracket, especially in a 12-game season, reaching seven D1 victories could at least get you in the initial pool of teams the selection committee will look at for the 13 at-large bids.
Rankings via the Stats Perform Media Poll and AFCA Coaches Poll. Media poll rankings are listed first. NR = not ranked.
Big Sky
No. 3/3 Montana State at No. 2/2 Montana
Montana State is 9-2 overall and 9-1 vs. the FCS, featuring two currently-ranked wins (NAU, UC Davis). Montana is 11-0 with 10 D1 wins, featuring one currently-ranked win (UND). The winner on Saturday earns the No. 2 seed. The loser has a good shot to remain in the Top 4 seeds, potentially even the No. 3 seed, although a 9-3 MSU team would possibly drop further than an 11-1 Montana team. The final-score margin could be a factor in how far the loser drops.
Sacramento State at No. 15/14 UC Davis
Sac State is 7-4 overall and 7-3 vs. the FCS with no currently-ranked wins. UC Davis is 7-3 overall and 7-2 vs. the FCS, featuring one currently-ranked win (NAU). The winner is certainly in as an at-large bid with an 8-4 record. The loser? Sac State likely wouldn’t get in at 7-5 and no currently-ranked victories. UC Davis has a better argument to get in at 7-4 with a ranked win over NAU, who has a decent shot at getting into the bracket if it wins its eighth game Saturday.
No. 23/NR Northern Arizona at Weber State
NAU would improve to 8-4 overall and 8-3 vs. the FCS with a win, giving itself a chance at a playoff bid. A lack of any currently-ranked victories could be a problem on the bubble, though.
CAA
Hampton at No. 10/9 Rhode Island
Rhody is 9-2 overall and 9-1 vs. the FCS with one currently-ranked win (UNH). A win would secure the CAA’s auto-bid, while also putting the Rams in the conversation for a Top 8 seed.
Sacred Heart at No. 9/7 Villanova
Villanova is 8-2 overall and 8-1 vs. the FCS, featuring one currently-ranked win over UNH. One more win could put Nova somewhere in the Top 16 seeds.
For Sacred Heart, who is an independent: The Pioneers are currently 8-3 overall with seven D1 wins. If they pulled off an upset, the committee would have to at least consider them for an at-large bid.
UAlbany at No. 12/11 Monmouth
Monmouth is 9-2 overall and 9-1 vs. the FCS with one currently-ranked win (Villanova). The Hawks will be in the conversation for a Top 8 seed if they hit their 10th win.
Richmond at William & Mary
W&M is 7-4 overall and 7-3 vs. the FCS with no currently-ranked wins. If the Tribe earns its eighth win, it could be considered by the committee. No currently-ranked victories will be a factor on the bubble, though, as will a head-to-head loss to UNH.
Maine at No. 25/NR New Hampshire
Maine is 6-5 overall and 6-3 vs. the FCS with no currently-ranked wins. It is likely out of the playoff hunt, but hitting seven wins by beating ranked UNH at least gives them a look. New Hampshire, meanwhile, is 7-4 overall and 7-3 vs. the FCS with one currently-ranked win (Monmouth). UNH would have a case to get in the bracket with eight wins. A head-to-head loss to Dartmouth, another potential eight-win team, will be a factor on the bubble.
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Ivy
No. 8/10 Harvard at NR/No. 25 Yale
Harvard is 6-0 in Ivy League play, while Yale is 5-1. The winner on Saturday earns the auto-bid. If Yale were to win, the Ivy League’s chances of being a multi-bid league increase with Harvard getting an at-large bid. If Yale loses, it likely won’t make the playoffs at 7-3 with a head-to-head loss to Dartmouth, who could potentially hit eight wins. A 10-0 Harvard team would have a shot at a Top 8 seed.
Dartmouth at Brown
Dartmouth is 7-2 with two currently-ranked wins over UNH and Yale. The Big Green will have an argument for the playoffs if it wins an eighth game on Saturday.
MEAC
SC State at Delaware State
With both teams 8-3 overall and 4-0 in MEAC play, the winner will play in the Celebration Bowl. Could the loser get an at-large bid into the playoffs with eight overall wins? It seems unlikely, since Delaware State only has six D1 wins and no ranked victories, while SC State has seven D1 wins and no ranked victories.
NC Central at Morgan State
NC Central could hit eight wins this weekend, but it’d only own seven D1 victories and no ranked wins. A chance at the playoffs is unlikely, especially with a 17-point loss to UNH, another playoff bubble team, plus head-to-head losses to Delaware State and SC State.
MVFC
St. Thomas at No. 1/1 North Dakota State
NDSU is taking a page out of the SEC’s playbook with a late-season game against an overmatched non-conference opponent. The Bison have already secured the MVFC AQ and are looking locked into the No. 1 seed at 11-0 with six currently-ranked wins. No one else has more than three.
No. 24/NR Southern Illinois at No. 11/11 Illinois State
SIU is 6-5 overall with only five D1 wins and no currently-ranked victories. It would need a ton of help on the bubble, even with a ranked win over Illinois State. ISU is 8-3 overall and 8-2 vs. the FCS with two currently-ranked wins (USD, SDSU). If the Redbirds win on Saturday to reach their ninth win and third ranked victory, they’d have an argument for a Top 8 seed.
No. 22/22 South Dakota State at No. 13/16 North Dakota
SDSU is 7-4 vs. the FCS with two currently-ranked wins (Montana State, YSU), but is on a four-game losing streak with QB Chase Mason sidelined due to injury. UND is 7-4 overall and 7-3 vs. the FCS, featuring two currently-ranked wins (YSU, SIU). The winner locks in a playoff spot at 8-4 and is likely somewhere in the Top 16 seeds. As for the loser … UND would still have a decent shot at getting in at 7-5 with its two ranked wins and tight losses to highly-ranked teams, plus the No. 2 FCS strength of schedule. If SDSU lost, would a team on a five-game losing streak and a 3-5 conference record be worthy of a playoff bid? If Mason plays, he plays well, and SDSU plays well overall but loses a tight game at UND, the Jacks could sneak in at 7-5. If they lose by multiple scores with or without Mason, the committee may not give them a pass. Player availability is a discussion point for the committee.
No. 18/17 Youngstown State at Northern Iowa
YSU is 7-4 overall and 7-3 vs. the FCS with two currently-ranked wins (Illinois State, SIU). The Penguins would have a shot at a Top 16 seed if they win their eighth game.
No. 16/21 South Dakota (bye)
No. 16/21 South Dakota has a Week 13 bye, but should have a playoff bid locked in at 8-4 overall, 8-3 vs. the FCS, and three currently-ranked wins (UND, SDSU, SIU). The Coyotes have a strong argument for a Top 16 seed.
NEC
Mercyhurst at CCSU
CCSU can clinch the auto-bid with a win over Mercyhurst. CCSU could also clinch with a loss and a Duquesne loss at Robert Morris.
Duquesne at Robert Morris
Duquesne would earn the auto-bid with a win at RMU and a CCSU loss. Both would finish 5-2 in the standings, and Duquesne has a head-to-head win over CCSU.
OVC-Big South
UT Martin at No. 6/8 Tennessee Tech
TN Tech is 10-1 overall and 9-0 vs. the FCS with nine D1 wins and no currently-ranked victories. It is 7-0 in the OVC-Big South standings, while UT Martin is 6-1. The winner will clinch the auto-bid. If UT Martin pulled off the upset, this conference would likely be a two-bid league with TN Tech getting an at-large bid. If TN Tech wins, it’ll have an argument for a Top 8 seed, and UT Martin is left out with only six wins.
Western Illinois at Gardner-Webb
Gardner-Webb is 7-4 overall and 7-2 vs. the FCS with no currently-ranked wins. WCU losing last week hurt G-W’s playoff resume. If the Runnin’ Bulldogs win Saturday to reach their eighth win, they would at least be considered by the committee, but they would need some bubble help.
Patriot
No. 4/4 Lehigh at NR/No. 24 Lafayette
Lehigh is 11-0 vs. the FCS with one currently-ranked win (Yale). Lafayette is 8-3 overall, 8-1 vs. the FCS with no currently-ranked wins, and 6-0 in Patriot League play. The winner here earns the auto-bid. If Lafayette wins, the Patriot League will be a two-bid league. If Lehigh wins, it is likely somewhere in the Top 4 seeds at 12-0 with two ranked wins, while Lafayette may be left on the wrong side of the bubble.
Pioneer
Morehead State at Drake
Marist at Presbyterian
San Diego at Stetson
Drake is 6-1 against PFL opponents, while Presbyterian and San Diego are both 5-2.
Drake can clinch the auto-bid with a home win over Morehead State. If Drake loses, multiple tiebreaker scenarios could unfold.
For Presbyterian to earn the auto-bid, it would need to beat Marist and then have Drake and San Diego both lose.
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SoCon
No. 7/6 Mercer at Auburn
Mercer has the auto-bid locked up. It also has a chance at a Top 8 seed with a 9-1 vs. FCS record and nine straight wins, although no opponents are currently ranked. The Bears did beat WCU two weekends ago, who was ranked at the time. It’ll be interesting to see Mercer’s strategy against an SEC opponent. How much do you put your starters at risk?
Western Carolina at VMI
WCU is 6-5 vs. the FCS with no currently-ranked wins. It likely cost itself a playoff spot with a loss last week vs. ETSU, but hitting a seventh win on Saturday at least makes the committee give you a look.
The Citadel at ETSU
ETSU is 6-5 overall and 6-4 vs. the FCS. It doesn’t have any currently-ranked wins, but it did knock WCU out of the rankings last week and only lost to ranked West Georgia and Mercer by a combined eight points. If the Bucs get their seventh D1 win on Saturday, the committee would at least consider them.
Southland
No. 14/13 Stephen F. Austin at Northwestern State
SFA has already clinched the auto-bid and is 9-2 overall, 8-1 vs. the FCS with eight D1 wins, and one currently-ranked victory (Lamar). If SFA wins, it could be somewhere in the Top 16 seeds.
Nicholls at No. 21/20 Southeastern Louisiana
Southeastern is 8-3 overall and 8-1 vs. the FCS with no currently-ranked wins. The Lions would have an argument for the playoffs if they hit their ninth win, but no ranked victories could be an issue on the bubble.
McNeese at No. 19/19 Lamar
Lamar is 8-3 overall and 8-2 vs. the FCS with two currently-ranked wins (USD, Southeastern). It would have an argument for a Top 16 seed if Lamar improved to 9-3.
East Texas A&M at UTRGV
UTRGV is 8-3 overall in its first season as a football program, but it only has five D1 wins. While the Vaqueros are eligible for the playoffs because it is an already-established D1 school, the low number of D1 wins and no ranked victories would prevent them from earning an at-large bid.
SWAC
Alcorn State at No. 20/15 Jackson State
Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Alabama State
Jackson State and Alabama State are both 8-2 overall with seven D1 wins, and are 6-1 in the SWAC East. JSU owns a head-to-head win, so it can clinch a spot in the SWAC championship game with a victory on Saturday. A second-place SWAC team is eligible for an FCS playoff at-large bid. However, Alabama State would not be able to participate due to its Nov. 27 Turkey Day Classic game against Tuskegee. If Alabama State were to win this weekend and JSU loses, which would send ASU to the SWAC championship, JSU’s seven-D1-win resume with no ranked wins is likely not good enough for a playoff at-large bid.
UAC
Austin Peay at No. 5/5 Tarleton State
Tarleton State is 10-1 overall, featuring an FBS win (Army) and one currently-ranked win (West Georgia). If the Texans beat Austin Peay, it will be somewhere in the Top 8 seeds and likely in the Top 5. Austin Peay is 7-4 overall with an FBS win (Middle Tennessee) and one currently-ranked win (West Georgia). If the Govs pull off the upset and get a win, they are in the bracket. If they lose, they will be right on the bubble with a 50/50 chance of getting in.
No. 17/18 Abilene Christian at Central Arkansas
Abilene Christian is 7-4 overall and 7-2 vs. the FCS, featuring three currently-ranked wins (SFA, West Georgia, Tarleton). If the Wildcats win, they could be somewhere in the Top 16 seeds. If they lose, they would still have an argument to get in, but would be more nervous on Selection Sunday.
Southern Utah at North Alabama
SUU is 6-5 vs. the FCS with one currently-ranked win (Abilene Christian). It also has a win over Austin Peay, who will be on the playoff bubble. If the Thunderbirds win, they will have seven D1 victories, on a six-game winning streak, and have wins over two teams in the playoff hunt. The committee would have to at least consider SUU.
