FCS diehards, what we have here is two distinct tiers. There’s a super elite level that only a few FCS programs have gotten to – and then the next tier is the “elites”.
In that top tier, which consists of only about five or six programs – mostly from the Dakotas and Montana – you find programs that just will not lose to another team outside of this tier. The next tier? It consists of the rest of the best that all get one FCS mulligan, and I don’t mean to another FCS powerhouse but a true head-scratcher.
That’s the state of the FCS. If we had an annual State of the FCS speech, you’d have to say that.
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THE PRESTIGIOUS TOP 8
NOTE: These are the schools that would receive a first-round playoff bye and host a second-round game. Also, in parenthesis after the ranked team () is what I had them ranked last week.
NO. 1 – MONTANA STATE
WHY?: The real question is, why not? While there can be arguments made for other teams for the No. 1 spot at the top of this poll, there are zero arguments against Montana State being in the No. 1 discussion. The Bobcats have won 10 games in a row to start the year, beat an FBS team (New Mexico), throttled a potential Top 8 seed in Idaho by 31 points. While MSU does not have the toughest schedule in the FCS, it is clearly the No. 1 team in one of the top two conferences in the land. Two biggies remain, as they go to UC Davis this weekend and then host the rival Montana Griz next weekend.
NO. 2 – NORTH DAKOTA STATE
WHY?: If anyone has an argument for No. 1, it is North Dakota State. The Bison had Deion’s boys down at Colorado on the ropes before falling late, and as it turns out that was a quality showing. They also have knocked off the two-time defending national champions in South Dakota State – and the Jackrabbits aren’t too far off their pace of the past two seasons. A trip next weekend to No. 5 South Dakota in the season’s finale will determine everything.
NO. 3 – SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
WHY?: The two-time defending champions are just waiting for someone to slip up – and the teams ahead of it both have potential pitfall games here in the next two weeks. SDSU, meanwhile, should be able to win the next two weekend’s games without much trouble.
NO. 4 – SOUTH DAKOTA
WHY?: Of the top four teams here, this is clearly the toughest remaining schedule – with a road trip to North Dakota this weekend, and NDSU the weekend after at home in Vermillion. The Coyotes took SDSU to overtime, but really lack that monster win that the top three (and even No. 5 and No. 6 below) possess.
NO. 5 – UC DAVIS
WHY?: The Aggies can prove they deserve to crack into the elite – which has been hogged by the above four teams for 18 months now. Montana State is making the trip to California this weekend. What’s going to happen?
NO. 6 – IDAHO
WHY?: Three losses or not, the Vandals have an FBS win over Wyoming, wins over potential playoff teams in ACU and Northern Arizona, and the two FCS losses are to Montana State and UC Davis above. If Idaho wins out and finishes 9-3, it’ll be a Top 8 seed with a first-round bye.
NO. 7 – MERCER
WHY?: Mercer will take a loss this weekend at SEC monster Alabama, then wraps with Furman. Its two best wins are over Western Carolina and ETSU – two fringe playoff teams. But the Bears have been incredibly consistent and will get a serious seeding look – no matter what happens with Alabama.
NO. 8 – RICHMOND
WHY?: The Spiders have quietly won eight in a row since a head-scratching loss to Wofford in Week 2. This schedule hasn’t been the toughest, but the 19-point win over Delaware – a program that is transitioning to the FBS – should be considered the most impressive result.
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FROM NO. 9 TO NO. 16
NOTE: This is the tier that would be seeded (if they participate in the playoffs) but would still have to play in the first round.
9. UIW
10. Abilene Christian
11. Villanova
12. SEMO
13. Rhode Island
14. UT Martin
15. Tarleton State
16. Harvard
WHY?: This is the realm where we get into the mulligan/golf topic from my opening statements. All eight of these teams have a head-scratching result. Seriously, there are no exceptions to this. They all have at least moderate key wins, too. Keep an eye on UT Martin, which has won six in a row and its only loss is to SEMO in overtime.
FROM NO. 17 TO NO. 25
NOTE: This is the tier that would not be seeded, but would be battling for a spot in the playoffs (if they aren’t conference champions)
17 Illinois State
18 North Dakota
19 Montana
20 Chattanooga
21 Stony Brook
22 East Tennessee State
23 Dartmouth
24 Duquesne
25 Jackson State
WHY?: If you flip this poll vote into a rough look at bracketology (without the two Ivy League teams (Harvard and Dartmouth) and the HBCU (Jackson State), you can see that this tier is quite volatile. Beware of this grouping.
OUTSIDE THE TOP 25 AND READY TO MOVE IN
Teams like Eastern Kentucky, Western Carolina, Northern Arizona, and New Hampshire should be considered – especially if they win out.
